Last week's Group of 5 best bets went 2-2 for -0.17 units. Bowling Green won outright and Troy covered easily - and won the 1H moneyline I suggested as well. Hopefully we can build on our 4-3 record on the season this week with our Group of 5 best bets.
Old Dominion -4.5 -112 (FanDuel)
Old Dominion is a team I’ve been higher than market on all year. The Monarchs have played very well against a pair of ACC teams, beating Virginia Tech in Week 1 and falling at Virginia by two in Week 3. They return 10 offensive starters from last year’s team and have shown how valuable returning experience can be early in a season. The defense lost a few more pieces, but as a unit they defended the run very well last season. They struggled a little against the pass a season ago – largely due to their inability to generate much of a pass rush – but have added some new pieces to the secondary and have been much improved early this season.
Arkansas State played Memphis pretty tough in Week 3, but its defense looked awful, surrendering 570 yards to the Tigers. After beating Virginia Tech at home in Week 1, Old Dominion returns to Norfolk to open conference play, where its experienced offense should be able to score in bunches to cover this number handily.
Southern Miss +13 -108 (FanDuel)
Southern Miss has been a weird team to peg early this season. It played Liberty super tough in Week 1 and eventually lost 29-27 after four overtimes. The following week it really didn’t have a clear plan at quarterback, and there were even talks of running back Frank Gore Jr. taking snaps under center – but Zach Wilcke ended up playing well and the Golden Eagles only trailed Miami (Fl.) 10-7 at halftime. This week, Wilcke will start at quarterback with Keyes also getting some reps according to coach Will Hall.
I actually really like Tulane this year and was on them last week against Kansas State – a game it won on the road. However, this is a prime example of a line getting blown up after a big win. Two of the best positions I had last week (Bowling Green vs. Marshall and Troy vs. App State) were taking advantage of this same type of over-reaction, and both teams covered easily.
I think that Southern Miss will have a little more clarity on offense this week after playing FCS Northwestern State last week where it was able to give a number of players meaningful reps. This is a fantastic spot to back Southern Miss and this is a game that should be close the whole way.
Eastern Michigan -6 -115 (DraftKings)
This line has moved a little from where I got it earlier in the week at -4.5, but this is still a spot I really like even at the current number of -6. I faded Buffalo last week and Coastal Carolina came up just short of covering the 13.5-point spread in their 12-point win over the Bulls. Buffalo went 4-8 last year and lost quarterback Kyle Vantrease, running back Dylan McDuffie to Georgia Tech, and four offensive linemen. The defense returns a handful of starters but has struggled heavily this year and gave up over 500 yards in last weekend’s game. Coastal fumbled four times in the first half to keep Buffalo in the game until the fourth quarter.
Eastern Michigan is coming off a big win against Arizona State where it outgained the Sun Devils by over 100 yards. The defense looked great and the offense went 11-15 on third downs, having no issues moving the ball. Arizona State is not a great football team, but Buffalo is a big step down regardless and Eastern Michigan should win this one by double digits.
Best Bets:
- Old Dominion -4.5 -112 (FanDuel)
- Southern Miss +13 -108 (FanDuel)
- Eastern Michigan -6 -115 (DraftKings)