WTA Cluj-Napoca
Will Wang exploit Linette’s lack of form?
While all the big guns are competing in San Diego this week, some of the lower-ranked players are looking to climb up the WTA rankings at the 250-event in Cluj-Napoca. After Ostrava winner Barbora Krejčíková also pulled out late, this tournament is anyone’s to take. On paper, Magda Linette should fancy her chances this week as the Pole is one of the elite indoor players in the field, winning 65% of her matches on the surface over the course of her career. The problem is, her form has been falling off a cliff lately. After reaching the final in Chennai, Linette had to save two match points against the ghost of Kristina Mladenovic before losing 2&2 to Emma Raducanu in Seoul. Last week, Linette then lost to Lucrezia Stefanini, a player ranked outside of the top 150.
Wang Xinyu’s season is trending in the exact opposite direction. The former junior world No. 2, still only 21 years of age, is coming off a final appearance in Trnava after only losing close matches against in-form players Liudmila Samsonova and Beatriz Haddad Maia at the WTA events in Tokyo and Tallinn. Just like Linette, Wang enjoys the indoor conditions, even winning 67% of her pro matches. The Chinese stands 5-feet-11-inches tall and has the ability to dictate play off a big first serve. She’s arguably the more talented player between the two and considering Linette’s dipping form, the youngster might stand a chance. I could envision a lot of service holds and tight sets, shifting this closer to a 50/50 proposition. Therefore, I’m betting overs as well as the underdog on the moneyline.
Bets for WTA Cluj-Napoca:
0.5u on Wang Xinyu ML (+180 with Kambi)
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set (+300 with bet365)
0.75u on Over 2.5 sets (+165 with Pinnacle)
ATP Challenger Ismaning
Not buying the books’ belief in Bellier
Carpet courts have become extinct over the last decade. Only a handful of tournaments are still being played on this unique surface, one of them at Challenger level this week in Ismaning. The quick indoor conditions plus the extremely low bounce make it hard to return, resulting in a lot of tiebreak sets, especially between good servers. Two of those are competing in the first round of Ismaning today when Elmar Ejupovic faces Antoine Bellier. The latter has made a name for himself this grass season as he defeated the likes of Tallon Griekspoor or Pablo Carreño Busta, reaching the semifinal stage at the ATP event in Mallorca. While this has been an incredible success for the Swiss, he has been severely overperforming during that period. Bellier did make some progress, however, I do not agree with the extent the bookmakers respect him ever since. He doesn’t have the greatest hands and his game is still very error-prone. Yes, his serve is massive and will gift him a lot of free points, however, it only takes one bad service game to lose a set on carpet.
For what it’s worth, I don’t trust Bellier’s consistency to beat a player like Ejupovic easily. The German can be labeled a carpet specialist as he has 79 wins and only 37 losses to his name on the pro tour, making carpet his best surface when it comes to winning percentages. Bellier on the other hand has a negative record on carpet, only winning 18 of his 39 matches on the surface – it also has to be pointed out that all but one of these have come on the ITF tour. Even though grass comes closest to these carpet conditions, there remain some doubts about Bellier’s abilities on the surface. Ejupovic already has two matches under his belt as he beat Evgeny Donskoy and Mats Rosenkranz in qualies. After all, I don’t expect a lot of breaks in this matchup and the further a set goes, the more it becomes a coin flip. With Bellier’s low-margin tennis that can fall apart at any point, I think Ejupovic should be closer to even money, which is why I’m betting him on the moneyline and the games handicap, plus I’m also adding the set overs again.
Bets for ATP Challenger Ismaning:
0.75u on Elmar Ejupovic ML (+150 with bet365)
1u on Elmar Ejupovic +2.5 games (-120 with bet365)
0.75u on Over 2.5 sets (+151 with Pinnacle)