Alexander Bublik vs. Tallon Griekspoor - ATP Astana
It’s a fairly big week for the ATP Tour overseas, as a pair of 500-level events are taking place. The Kazakh and Japanese capitals are both hosting events, and it’s the former where we find the match between Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor.
Let’s delve a bit more into that one and preview why backing the underdog is a strong position to take in this market.
Bublik incredibly talented, but rarely fully engaged
Someone I like to refer to as the “Kazakh Kyrgios,” Bublik is another one the tour’s most mercurial players. Equipped with a massive first serve, powerful groundstrokes and unusual athleticism for his size, his game’s strengths resemble those of tennis’ resident bad boy from down under.
Much like his Aussie counterpart, he’s also incredibly up-and-down on any given day from an emotional standpoint and shares Kyrgios’ disdain for clay courts.
He may not display the flashes of anger that the Australian does on the regular, but the similarities between the two are there.
That said, backing him as a massive favorite - even at his “home” event (Bublik is one of many Russians who represents Kazakhstan thanks to funding and support from the tennis federation in the neighboring country) - is something I’m not very fond of.
Even in some bigger matches, if Bublik falls behind or isn’t having his way, he’s prone to play very casual, even exhibition-like tennis. Just a week ago, Bublik decided to hit a shot in a crucial moment of a tournament final with the handle of his racquet, costing him a second break of serve and any chance of coming back.
While there’s no doubt his talent is enough to have him as a slight favorite in this matchup, his incredible inconsistencies make the current price point unreasonable.
Griekspoor going through a rough patch, but game is strong
As for his opponent on Tuesday, Griekspoor has had a tumultuous 2022 season.
Also with a strong serve and forehand combination and decent athleticism, Griekspoor has struggled with unforced errors at times.
His game has been a bit better this year on clay courts, where he has more time to set up his strong groundstrokes, but because of the pace he can generate, the game also translates to quicker surfaces.
After a decent Davis Cup week post-U.S. Open where he beat American Tommy Paul and another Kazakh in Mikhail Kukushkin, while dropping his third match against Dan Evans, Griekspoor had a disappointing outing in Tel Aviv, blowing a 6-4 lead to Vasek Pospisil.
This match should present a good bounce-back opportunity, against an opponent who’s known to lack motivation on any given day. In a match featuring some strong servers, this one should remain relatively close throughout.
The over isn’t the worst look in this spot, but with a hot-and-cold opponent, as well as the likelihood of this being a serving-oriented match, the moneyline in this spot is the position to take. With a +240 on the board - implying just a 30% chance of victory for the Dutchman - I’m seeing more value on the high-risk, high-reward position.
Best bet: Griekspoor ML, 1 unit at +240 (Bet365)