ATP Challenger Alicante
Hard task for Hardt on hard courts
There might be a wrong man favored in the match between Nicolás Álvarez Varona and Nick Hardt at the Challenger event in Alicante. When you’re just looking at their win/loss records, Hardt seems like the obvious favorite in this one. He is 38-20 this year while Álvarez Varona even possesses a losing record of 18-26. It’s important to put these stats into perspective though. Hardt was on a run at ITF-level this summer, winning the event in Denia and reaching another final in Wetzlar the week after. While the Dominican was collecting wins at ITFs, Álvarez Varona competed at Challengers all year – he only played a single ITF event in 2022. When it comes to Elo ratings, this also shows as Álvarez Varona leads Hardt in the overall (1410 to 1338) as well as the hard-court rating (1324 to 1288). In fact, this is Hardt’s first hard-court event since April. In round one, he capitalized on a Blancaneaux retirement while Álvarez Varona was convincing in his straight-sets win over Gabriel Décamps. Both Álvarez Varona and Hardt are consistent baseliners and I do have this one as a pick’em. I think the current line is impacted by their overall records and I’m happy to side with the more adapted hard-court player in his home country at plus money.
Bet for ATP Challenger Alicante:
1u on Nicolás Álvarez Varona ML (+108 with Kambi)
WTA Ostrava
Kasatkina a tough cookie in slow conditions
Ekaterina Alexandrova is coming off a title win in Seoul to compete at her favorite surface, indoor hard, again this week. That’s fair enough, however, these courts in Ostrava are completely different to the slick indoor conditions the Russian has had so much success in throughout her career. Alexandrova’s big serve and groundstrokes are mostly getting neutralized and tomorrow’s opponent will only make things worse. Daria Kasatkina has made a career of wearing opponents down with her fitness and counterpunching. She’s always asking for one or two additional winners and it takes consistent hitting from start to finish to beat her. Despite winning the title in Seoul, Alexandrova did not look convincing throughout the tournament, losing a set to Asia Muhammad and only beating world No. 340 Lulu Sun 7-5, 7-6. In much slower conditions, I make Kasatkina, who’s also looking to make amends for her first-round loss at the US Open, a slight favorite.
Bet for WTA Ostrava:
1u on Daria Kasatkina ML (+105 with Betway)