If you were following this space Thursday, you would have known that the game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts was going to be one of the most boring games of the season - and that’s saying a lot. Like clockwork, the under hit by a mile, and it would’ve been an easy 2-0 night if it wasn’t for overtime. Melvin Gordon was sitting under the number for receiving and rushing before a 20-plus yard catch in the extra frame broke our hearts. Sometimes you just can’t handicap awful-ness. Either way, we are profitable moving into the Sunday nighter, when the Cincinnati Bengals head to Maryland to take on the Baltimore Ravens.
Bengals @ Ravens
Let’s not get this twisted, regardless of their 2-2 record, it continues to be Lamar Jackson time in Baltimore. Jackson has thrown 11 touchdowns through four weeks and is primed to show up on prime time on Sunday. The Ravens have played like a 4-0 ball club for all but two quarters this season – their fourth-quarter meltdown against the Miami Dolphins and their inability to close out the Buffalo Bills after being up 20-3. However, this is a structurally sound football team. Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in total DVOA, and ranks first in offense and special teams. This Ravens offense has been nearly unstoppable all season long, ranking third in the NFL with 29.8 points per game and 12th in the league with an average of 359 yards per game. Lamar has also owned the Bengals over his last three starts against them, outscoring Cincy 82-47 over that span. Now, the Bengals did win their last matchup 41-17 last season, but this just isn’t the same Super Bowl-bound team from 2021. A year ago, the Ravens were 5-1 at home with Jackson under center, and the trend will continue on Sunday night.
The offensive line for the Bengals has yet to gel, which will give this struggling Ravens defense an opportunity to make some plays. Cincy is also coming into this game hot, which is why a lot of handicappers are siding with them coming into Sunday night. But let’s take a look at the quality of competition here. They’ve beaten the Jets, and a Dolphins team with a backup quarterback. They have yet to face a team like Baltimore this season, and have already lost to Cooper Rush’s Dallas Cowboys and Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Away from the numbers, Baltimore is coming off a bizarre loss to the Bills a week ago, when they decided to go for a touchdown on fourth down instead of kicking the potential game-winning field goal. Marcus Peters and coach John Harbaugh got into it as a result. The team has been stewing in that decision for a week, which might just give them an extra edge in this game. I don’t want to say it’s a must-win for Baltimore this early in the season, but it just might be in a huge AFC North matchup.
The public is with Baltimore on this one, riding 57% of the money on the Ravens. And as much as I dislike siding with the public, I think they got this one right. Baltimore is 8-3 against the spread in their past 11 after a loss. Let’s make some money together.
Bet: Ravens -3 (-115 at PointsBet)
Although I have the Ravens winning by a touchdown in this one, I still think a ton of points will be scored. This game may very well come down to the fourth quarter. Both of these teams have the ability to move the ball, and seem to light up the scoreboard whenever they do face off - their last two games totaled 58 points and 62 points, respectively. Further, Baltimore’s red-zone offense is fifth-best in the NFL, converting 71.43% of their trips into touchdowns. While Cincy isn’t anywhere near that caliber (53.85% - 22nd-best), I think they do their job in order to get this over the number. A year ago, Burrow threw for 941 yards and seven touchdowns against the Ravens, and I can see him cooking up something special again in a shootout.
The Ravens’ secondary leaves something to be desired, giving up the most yards through the air in the NFL through four games (315.3). In the second half this year, the Ravens have given up an NFL-worst 1019 yards while allowing a whopping 67 points - it doesn’t take an expert to tell you this is not good. The number is a little slanted after what Tua did to them two weeks ago, but the Bengals have the weapons to exploit that defensive unit.
I’m looking at Ja’Marr Chase to come out with a big game after three weeks of subpar football by his standards. It’s worth sprinkling some money on him to go over 69.5 yards against a banged-up secondary. The Ravens are dead-last in the league in receiving yards allowed to wideouts with an average of 242 yards per game. Through four weeks, they’ve allowed four players to go over 70.5 yards - three of them went over 150 yards.
On the defensive side, it doesn’t get much better for Cincy, who come into this game with the 19th-ranked pass defense, allowing 241.8 yards per game against some pretty subpar competition.
Bet:
- Over 47.5 (-105 at BetVictor)
- Ja’marr Chase over 69.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)