Broncos country … let’s ride.
After a profitable Sunday night game in which we went 2-0 while tailing a couple of unders, we have our eyes set on Monday and Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle.
The quarterback takes on his former team on Monday Night Football – a rebuilding Seahawks outfit that is, to put it nicely, pretty bad.
Denver Broncos (-6.5, 44) @ Seattle Seahawks
The biggest discrepancy between these two teams is at the most important position in football. Geno Smith won the quarterback battle over Drew Lock during the preseason, after the latter turned the ball over four times. Smith has completed just 59% of his passes while throwing for 34 touchdowns against 37 interceptions in his career - not pretty. He owns a 13-21 record as a starter, and I just don’t see many paths to victory for the Seahawks on Monday night.
Meanwhile in Denver, there are heightened expectations after acquiring Wilson, to connect with wideouts Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler. Both quarterbacks will be going against middle-of-the-pack defenses from a year ago - Denver ranked 20th in DVOA, Seattle ranked 21st. However, the Broncos get the slight advantage here, as the unit ranked second in the NFL last season with an average of 18.9 points surrendered. The Broncos’ defense gets the edge, as does their offense. Don’t overthink this one - the game could get ugly quickly.
Bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110 at SIA)
Props corner
A lot has been made about the significance of Wilson’s return to Seattle, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to drop back over 33 times throughout the contest. His overall usage, game script, and the Broncos’ ability to run the ball all work against that number. First, Wilson attempted over 33 passes just twice last season - he went 20 of 40 for 161 yards while trailing the Green Bay Packers throughout the contest, and 30 of 37 for 231 yards in a barnburner against the San Francisco 49ers. This won’t be the case on Monday Night Football. It won’t be a high-scoring affair, and I don’t see him playing catch-up. Javonte Williams (246 touches) and Melvin Gordon (231) led the NFL in running back touches a year ago with 477 as a tandem; the next closest was Najee Harris with 381. Now, we are unsure of how they will be used with Wilson in the fold, but the under is the play regardless. The value here is a beautiful thing.
Bet: Wilson under 33.5 pass attempts (+100 on NorthStar)