Last week’s Group of 5 best bets went 1-2, moving our season record to 5-5. Southern Miss won outright as a 13-point dog, but neither of the favorites could cover the number. A winning week this week puts us back in the black on the season, and these three plays will help us do that.
Air Force -14 -110 (DraftKings)
I am a big fan of this Air Force team that returns a huge chunk of production both offensively and defensively from last year’s team that went 10-3. I thought this team was good enough to run the table in a weak Mountain West and go 12-0 this year, but they fell to Wyoming in Week 3 in a horrid offensive showing in Laramie. On the season Air Force is still averaging over 37 points per game and returned to form in Week 4 by blowing out Nevada 48-20. Another minor factor to note here is that Air Force played last Friday at home, getting an extra day to prepare for this matchup – whatever that might be worth. Air Force has dominated this matchup in recent years, especially at home, and will have no problems moving the ball in this one.
Meanwhile, the Navy offense has left a lot to be desired, scoring just 14.3 points per game despite playing FCS Delaware in Week 1. In Week 4, Navy was fortunate enough to play a solid ECU team after a much-needed bye week, pulling off a 23-20 upset as a result. The Midshipmen are being overvalued after last week’s big win, with this line is way short for a game where they will be massively outplayed on offense.
Back Air Force to cover the number, while I also like the over here.
Louisiana +8.5 -110 (DraftKings)
Back to the well with a Louisiana team that has done nothing but disappoint the last two weeks. As ugly as this one is, this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Louisiana and sell-high spot on South Alabama. Louisiana lost some key offensive line pieces and its quarterback from a year ago, but still return a lot of talent from last year’s very successful squad. ULL adopted a quarterback-by-committee approach early in the season, but have finally settled into what seems to be Chandler Fields’ offense. I think moving over to Fields full-time will help the offense improve and gain a little momentum into this week. The defense is very capable and have kept the Ragin Cajuns in a lot of games where the offense has struggled.
South Alabama has looked incredible early on in this season, highlighted by a 32-31 loss at UCLA in Week 3. I don’t blame people for being high on the Jaguars, but after the near win over UCLA and a massive cover last weekend against Louisiana Tech, it’s fair to say that the market is very bullish. The offense faces its toughest task this week and will struggle to find the same success here.
This will be a low scoring game, with Louisiana’s defense good enough to be able to keep this within a possession. Don’t be surprised if Fields and the offense are able to generate enough points to win this game outright.
Cincinnati -10 -110 (DraftKings)
Cincinnati is a team I hadn’t bet on or against until last week, when it was able to cover as 17-point favorites at home against Indiana, in a 45-24 win. There were a lot of questions surrounding how the Cincinnati offense would fair without Desmond Ridder, Jerome Ford, and Alec Pierce, but it’s looked great. Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant has amassed 1200 passing yards through the first four games of the season. Nearly the entire starting offensive line is back from a year ago, while the Bearcats have also added a few transfers to the mix as well. The defense lost a handful of starters, including Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant, and while they are certainly not at the level they were a year ago, they’ve held their own through the first third of the season.
Tulsa is coming off a tight loss to Ole Miss, playing the Rebels tough despite losing quarterback Davis Brin to injury in the first half. Brin is the heartbeat of this offense and both he and top wide receiver Keylon Stokes (concussion) are questionable for this contest. There’s a good chance Stokes won’t suit up, especially after what happened to Tua Tagovailoa on Thursday Night Football, while Brin seems unlikely to be at 100% even if he does play. The Tulsa defense has proven really vulnerable this season, giving up 40 points to Wyoming and 35 to Northern Illinois, and will have a very tough time stopping Cincinnati.
I like the Bearcats even if Brin and Stokes are playing and at 100%, but the value here is too good to pass up, especially with their status being uncertain. Cincinnati should get whatever it wants on offense in this matchup and comfortably cover the number.
Best bets:
- Air Force -14 -110 (DraftKings)
- Louisiana +8.5 -110 (DraftKings)
- Cincinnati -10 -110 (DraftKings)