The Group of 5 best bets article went 1-1-1 in Week 5, with Louisiana +8.5 winning, Air Force -14 losing, and Cincinnati -10 pushing. This week we go back to the well on one of these teams, while mixing in a pair of Sun Belt favorites.
Georgia State -2.5 -115 (DraftKings)
This isn’t the first time I’ve backed Georgia State in one of these articles. Last week the Panthers finally picked up their first win, beating Army 31-14 as 8.5-point underdogs. Georgia State has only been outgained by 15 yards per game by opponents this season, despite owning a 1-4 record. The Panthers returned a ton of talent from last year and were one of my favorites in the Sun Belt coming into the season. They are being undervalued in the market thanks to a poor record and will likely show a lot of value the rest of the season.
Georgia Southern played Coastal Carolina very tough last week, eventually falling 34-30. The Eagles have surprised me through five weeks, including a big win over Nebraska in Week 2. However, they have really struggled against the run this season, which is a bad recipe against a Georgia State team that relies heavily on the ground game. The Panthers will have a lot of success running the ball in this one. Georgia Southern’s offense has carried the team so far, but won’t be able to win a shootout here as I trust the Georgia State defense to put together more stops.
I really like the Panthers at home and would play them at anything -3 or shorter.
Air Force -10.5 -110 (FanDuel)
Air Force has been another frequent member of these articles, continuing to be undervalued in the market, despite failing to cover last week. I was really excited to bet on this Air Force team last weekend, but a costly fumble in the red zone and an inability to convert from inside the 5-yard line twice resulted in just 13 points in the game for the Falcons. This offense – while heavily reliant on the run – is much too talented and way too explosive to be scoring just 13 points.
The tempo in this one will be much quicker, and Air Force should be able to score at will against an Aggies defense that has given up 34 points or more in each of their last three contests against BYU, UNLV, and FCS Weber State. Utah State is likely getting a bit of a boost here off its two-touchdown cover in Provo last week, but its defense will not be able to string together enough stops in this one to keep back-up quarterback Cooper Legas and this offense within reach.
This is a great blowout spot for Air Force, and I think we see the Falcon offense explode after a frustrating Week 5 game. I like Air Force up to -12 here.
Coastal Carolina -13 -110 (Caesars)
Grayson McCall and the Chanticleers have started the season 5-0 despite losing a handful of key contributors on both sides of the ball from last year’s 11-2 squad. The offense has gotten some transfer portal help – most notably from wide receiver Sam Pickney who has 377 yards receiving in five games. McCall has been stellar this year, throwing for 1336 yards and 14 touchdowns with only one interception. The defense struggled in the second half against Georgia Southern, but now gets a huge step down in opponent against a UL Monroe team that is averaging just 312 yards per game.
Simply put, I am very low on UL Monroe this season. I think it’s still getting a bump in the market from beating UL Lafayette in Week 4. In Week 5, Arkansas State was able to put up 45 points on this Warhawks defense, on just 10 possessions. The Chants offense will have just an easy of a time and it’s possible my prediction of 42 points might even be a little low for the Coastal Carolina offense in Week 6.
This one has all the makings of a blowout and I think McCall and the Chants offense will cover the number easily. I’m excited about Coastal here at anything -15 or shorter.
Best Bets:
- Georgia State -2.5 -115 (DraftKings) *1 unit
- Air Force -10.5 -110 (FanDuel) *1 unit
- Coastal Carolina -13.5 -110 (Caesars) *1 unit