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CFB Power 5 best bets for Week 5: Two 'dogs to back

Spencer Sanders

As the calendar turns to October on Saturday, we enter conference play in college football. The landscape has started to take shape, and as far as contenders go, we may only have three as it stands right now. Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama firmly lead the pack, and although there are some solid teams below them, these three are in a league of their own. The group of teams below them will create a fantastic fight for the fourth playoff seed, which will result in must-win games down the stretch for a variety of teams. 

The Week 5 slate will provide fans with entertaining games across the board, including five games between ranked opponents. I dug into the matchups and found a pair of underdogs, one of which brings forth our first two-unit play of the season.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss (-7, 53.5)

The noon slate kicks off with an SEC matchup between No. 7 Kentucky and No. 14 Ole Miss. Both teams remain undefeated through the first four weeks of the season, but we still don’t know how good either team really is based on their non-conference opponents. Although Kentucky has a win over Florida in the Swamp, the other three came against Miami (Ohio), Youngstown State, and Northern Illinois. Meanwhile Ole Miss has beaten Troy, Georgia Tech, Central Arkansas, and Tulsa.

In that Week 2 matchup against Florida, we were on Kentucky as an underdog and we are going right back to the Wildcats in this spot. Will Levis is a guy I just cannot get away from and he is finally getting back his leading rusher in Chris Rodriguez, who returns from suspension. After struggling on the ground (81.5 yards per game), Kentucky will be able to operate tits full offense with Rodriguez back. If he’s able to take on a full workload, the sky is the limit for the Wildcats. These teams play a very different style of football, with Kentucky a possession team – ranking 16th nationally in time of possession – while Ole Miss is all about tempo, ranking near the bottom of the country in time of possession, but near the top in plays per game. I understand Vegas making the Rebels favorites at home, but a full touchdown is egregious. Give me Kentucky to control the clock on the road and not only stay in this game but have an opportunity to win it late.

Bet: Kentucky +7 (-107) PointsBet 1u

Oklahoma State @ Baylor (-2.5, 56.5)

Heading into the afternoon slate, we have No. 9 Oklahoma State travelling to Waco to take on No. 16 Baylor. The Cowboys come into this matchup 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 matchups, and when pairing that with their tremendous road and underdog record ATS, I love Spencer Sanders and the Cowboys on Saturday. Sanders has passed for 916 yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season, and although the competition has been subpar, averaging 511.3 yards of total offense is impressive.

Oklahoma St is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the past four seasons, which includes a perfect 5-0 ATS record in its last five on the road. This team gets up for filling the role of underdog, and with this game projected to be close, look for the Cowboys’ defense become the true difference maker. The unit features a strong pass rush, which has accounted for 10 sacks through three games. That will prove key on Saturday, as When Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen faces pressure, his efficiency takes a serious hit, with his completion percentage dropping from 70% to 41%.

The Cowboys rank first nationally with 51.7 points per game and are fresh off a bye week. I expect them take some shots early, building an important lead on the road in a hostile environment. It took four interceptions by Sanders for Baylor to narrowly win the Big 12 Championship last season, but with better ball protection from the quarterback, Oklahoma State will be in good position to win this game. With a consistent offense and a defense that can pressure Shapen, I like the Cowboys to hit the road and cover this spread against their conference rival.

Bet: Oklahoma St +2.5 (-110) DraftKings 2u