After hitting both our picks a week ago, we are back for week 6 with another two plays. The season is flying by and the Week 6 schedules has a few spots to target on Saturday. This slate includes three games between ranked opponents, while also featuring some marquee matchups such as BYU/Notre Dame, Kansas St/Iowa St, and Florida St/North Carolina St. When handicapping the full slate, I was drawn to focus in on one of the games between ranked teams and one of these aforementioned marquee games. Check out the plays of the week below and let’s continue a strong season.
Tennessee @ LSU (+3, 65)
The noon slate gets the day started with a bang, featuring an SEC matchup between Tennessee and LSU, with the No. 8 ranked Volunteers heading to Death Valley to take on the No. 25 ranked LSU Tigers. This game sees the home Tigers as 3-point underdogs, with the total at 65. This total could be found at 62.5 earlier in the week and because we missed the boat on a better number, I am going to jump on the home dog rather than the over in this spot.
LSU got off to a tough start this season and that visual is probably still lingering in a lot of people’s minds. Since Week 1 the Tigers have rattled off four straight wins, including over Mississippi St and Auburn. Tennessee does possess a solid offensive threat, but this is where the Vols will run into trouble. The LSU defense is third in the SEC, allowing just 293.8 yards per game and will look to impose its will on a Tennessee team that tries to play up-tempo, regardless of the circumstance.
I am probably a bigger fan of Jayden Daniels than most, but in this spot I trust he can manage this game and play Tiger football. LSU coach Brian Kelly has reiterated he wants to see Daniels be more aggressive and if there was ever a time to start slinging the ball, it’s at home against Tennessee. As it currently stands, more than 70% of both bets and money are coming in on Tennessee and yet, the line has not really budged from that three number. In fact, some 2.5’s have started to float around the market and that should tell you all you need to know. Give me the home dog in this SEC clash.
Bet: LSU +3 (-110) FanDuel 1u
Kansas St @ Iowa St (+1.5, 45)
Well, here we are again… another conference game with a short home underdog. No. 20 Kansas State heads into Ames, Iowa to take on the Iowa St Cyclones in a Big 12 matchup. This spread is hovering around 1.5 to 2 points and if you are looking to bet the underdog in this spot, I would lean towards the moneyline. I for one am staying away from a side because the Cyclones have not been kind to me this season and thus, I am targeting the total here.
With a total in the mid 40’s, it is clear what type of game Vegas is expecting out of these teams. Although I do tend to agree we could see a slower tempo game, I think this number is still short for the way Kansas St will look to play on the road. When the Wildcats went into Oklahoma, they scored 24 points in the first half and before anyone tells me Iowa St has a far superior defense, trust me, I know. I am looking back to that Baylor/Iowa St game a few weeks back and thinking we could see a very similar result in this one, where the teams play each other tough and both score three-plus touchdowns. I like the duo of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn for the Wildcats and if they are breaking long gains on the ground, they will not only control the game, but also force the Cyclones to play from behind. This could be a bet we immediately regret but if things go as I expect them to, this number is a good look.
Bet: Kansas St/Iowa St over 45 (-107) PointsBet 1u