Army/Air Force Under 41
Ahh, an old reliable. Service academy games tend to defy projection models due to the meandering pace and each team’s intimate defensive familiarity with option-style football. This matchup closed 38 last year and still stayed under despite overtime; in 2020, it closed 37.5. I jumped at the key number of 41, which is easily the most important total in this range. Army could again be without explosive “A” tailback Tyrell Robinson, who changes the complexion of the Knights’ offense with his game-breaking speed but has missed the last two games. There’s no way to know his current injury status because, well, it’s the government. These are two of the slowest offenses in the country in plays per minute; Army is 122nd and Air Force is 130th.
Virginia Tech -3.5
I’ve been below-market all season on the Hokies and just cashed a regular season win total under, but this line appears to be overadjusted. Any concerns of Virginia Tech quitting on the season were allayed last Thursday in Raleigh, when the Hokies nearly pulled a stunner against the Devin Leary-less Wolfpack. The main storyline here is the status of Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims, who was allegedly a game-time call against Florida State but didn’t even go through early warmups. In his stead, backup Zach Gibson threw three passes before being replaced by true freshman third-stringer Zach Pyron. Whereas Sims’ elite rushing ability gives the Jackets a puncher’s chance, neither backup appears to have any functional mobility and are sitting ducks behind an atrocious offensive line. VA Tech’s pass rush is the strength of its defense and grades out in PFF’s top 40. Against the 124th-ranked offensive line, the Hokies can live in the GT backfield. One concern is Virginia Tech’s backfield as the top guys are both questionable. The better of the two, Keshawn King, warmed up against NC State but didn’t play. I suspect he’ll play this week. I’m comfortable up to -6 with the Hokies.
Kentucky/Missouri Under 43
Imagine a matchup with a slower projected pace than Army/Air Force. Is it even possible? Well, yes. Missouri (128th) and Kentucky (131st) are both running less than two plays per minute, setting up for an all-time slog between two elite defenses. Kentucky has leaned run-heavy since Chris Rodriguez returned to the lineup, and he’ll be running into the teeth of Missouri’s stout defensive front that currently ranks second nationally in line yards allowed. Rodriguez was game-scripted out last week against Tennessee as the Vols opened up a multiple-TD lead in the second quarter and forced Kentucky into a pass-heavy approach. Missouri’s offense is exceedingly unlikely to attain any separation, allowing the Wildcats to control the game on the ground. Both defenses are top 20 in disallowing points inside their own 40-yard lines. As of Tuesday morning, there’s also significant inclement weather projected at kickoff in Columbia with rain and 15+ MPH winds. I’d play this down to 41.
For more CFB betting content, join Brad Powers and Joey Knish as they react to Week 8 and break down the Week 9 slate, analyzing the biggest games and giving out their best bets:
Quick Hitters
- Dumping on Tony Elliott and Des Kitchings is a recurring theme of this column, and that will continue this week as Virginia hosts North Carolina. As I noted last week, the fastest way to offset UNC’s defensive futility is with equally bad playcalling. Predictably, Pitt’s offense repeatedly bogged down with bad decisions by Kedon Slovis and woeful playcalling from Frank Cignetti. Eventually, UNC’s offense started rolling, and Drake Maye showed why he is PFF’s top-graded quarterback under pressure and leads the country in explosive plays generated. UVA’s defense has been a bright spot all season, but the overall numbers are inflated by some pitiful opponents (plus Louisville without Malik Cunningham). UNC’s offense is unlike anything UVA has faced to date, and UVA’s -EV playcalling will lead to too many quick three-and-outs and favorable UNC field position. UNC can virtually clinch the Coastal with a win in Charlottesville. After opening around 9.5, the line has been steadily ticking down. I’ll wait for UNC -7.
- Quietly, Casey Thompson has put together a solid season amidst perpetual dysfunction at Nebraksa. The Huskers led Illinois 9-6 in the middle of the second quarter when Thompson was knocked out of the game, from which point Nebraska generated 34 total yards in the remaining two-and-a-half quarters. If Thompson misses the Minnesota game due to an undefined “nerve issue” in his arm (and it certainly sounds like he will), the Gophers could quickly turn this into a bloodbath and a career day for Mo Ibrahim. Early Gopher steam pushed the line north of two touchdowns, and it should continue to climb relatively unabated towards -17 if Thompson continues trending out.
- The Fightin’ Pete Rossomando’s at Charlotte fashioned a performance for the ages in the first game of the post-Will Healy era. Interim coach voodoo is a mysterious earthly force and impossible to quantify, but it’s not an ideal situational spot with Western Kentucky likely seething following an ugly home blowout loss to North Texas. Charlotte by three? WKU by 40? Choose your adventure.
- Another column mainstay: Hugh Freeze as an underdog. After signing an eight-year extension to stay in Lynchburg through 2030 (or January 2023), Freeze gets yet another opportunity to pull an outright upset as a significant underdog. In his career, he’s 27-12 ATS in this role. Liberty’s quarterback situation is in flux with Freeze indicating on Monday that Johnathan Bennett and Charlie Brewer will “split” time against Arkansas with Kaidon Salter still recovering from groin surgery. I’d love to play the Flames here, but the offense isn’t nearly as explosive without Salter (leads all FBS quarterbacks in average yards after contact) and my numbers make this number around -17. Laughably, the Flames are 23rd in the AP Poll, which I assume will get the attention of the Arkansas players who might otherwise overlook this game. Per BetLabs, in nearly two decades of tracking, this is the second-highest spread for a ranked underdog against an unranked favorite. The highest? Liberty (+17) @ Virginia Tech in 2020. The Flames won outright. Fun game.
- Doug Brumfield is practicing this week for UNLV and appears to be tracking towards a Saturday return against San Diego State. It’s easy to forget that the Rebels were 4-1 a few weeks ago with impressive underlying metrics when Brumfield went down early in the San Jose game and everything subsequently went to shit. They’ve been comatose ever since as the dropoff from Brumfield to his backups is as severe as any quarterback situation in the country. Actually, “severe” doesn’t do it justice. It’s seismic. Gargantuan. Choose whatever hyperbolic adjective you desire without running the risk of overshooting the target. This is not the SDSU defense of recent vintage; the Aztecs are bottom ten in PFF’s tackling metrics and near the bottom in a slew of run defense categories. Circa opened the Rebs +9 but the number was bet down to +6 within 15 minutes. I’d love +7, but there’s clearly compelling market support for UNLV that will prevent the number from getting there..
- After a predictably arduous start to the season with a new coaching staff and paper-thin roster, Hawaii has covered four consecutive games and appears to be playing hard for Timmy Chang. Fresno rallied in fairly improbable fashion to claim the Oil Can Trophy against SDSU last week after trailing 28-10 in the fourth quarter. With a very light November schedule (Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada, Wyoming), Fresno has the inside track to winning the MWC Mountain title. Given the emotion expended in last week’s comeback and the boost from Jake Haener’s highly-anticipated return, I expect a drop-off this week against the lowly ‘Bows, whose season-long numbers continue to be deflated by September ass-kickings against Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, and Michigan. I like Hawaii +24 or better.