Each week, this column will explore a handful of games utilizing analytics-based data and situationally based handicapping. In some instances this season, I will advocate for a particular side of total in this column but won’t end up betting it simply because the market never reaches my target number. All plays will be tracked on Betstamp.
Data pulled from CFBGraphs, CollegeFootballData, GameOnPaper, and SportsInfoSolutions.
Louisville @ UCF
Target: Over 61
Among the most misleading Week 1 box scores was Louisville-Syracuse, wherein the Cards turned the ball over five times and were stopped on fourth-and-goal at the Syracuse 2-yard line. In between those miscues, Louisville moved the ball with relative ease, racking up 6.6 yards per play (82nd percentile) and nearly matching ‘Cuse in yards gained per drive (43.7 to 40.7). Louisville’s season-opening sloppiness aside, the story here is two incendiary offenses matched up with defenses prone to allowing chunk plays. Last season, Louisville’s Malik Cunningham-led attack finished seventh in explosiveness and returns most of its key weaponry; UCF’s defense was 120th in rush explosiveness allowed.
Offensively, John Rhys Plumlee looks downright combustible operating Gus Malzahn’s power zone scheme, and his dynamic rushing ability opens up the outside for UCF’s collection of perimeter athletes. The Knights should be able to gash a Cards’ defense that finished 2021 outside of the top 100 in rush explosiveness. The middling Syracuse offense torched Louisville for 6.0 yards per carry and a 57% success rate (100th percentile) last Saturday, and UCF’s offensive personnel is significantly more talented. This game projects as a big play bonanza, with both teams operating at above-average pace and led by perhaps the two most dynamic rushing quarterbacks in the country. I’m comfortable up to 63.
UTSA @ Army
Target: Over 54
I played the Army-Coastal Carolina over last week in part due to Army’s newfound explosive rushing element. Whereas most previous Jeff Monken teams were limited to grinding out 3-4 yards at a time, the 2021 Knights finished in the top 50 in rush explosiveness. It carried over in the opener last week as Army rolled up a 15% explosive rush rate (best in the country). UTSA’s run defense projects to be around the national average again, though I’m skeptical of the Roadrunners’ attention to detail in preparing to defend the triple option following a gut-wrenching double overtime loss in a national-showcase spot. UTSA hasn’t seen a triple option-oriented offense since its 2019 meeting with Army and was pushed around in the trenches by Houston’s offensive line (3.6 line yards per attempt).
Offensively, Frank Harris’s dual-threat prowess is a mismatch for an Army defense that allowed Coastal’s offense to register a 61% success rate (100th percentile nationally); Coastal’s offense also gobbled up a staggering 88% of available yards. UTSA is bursting with skill position talent and returns the third-highest percentage of receiving production nationally. Both squads were top 25 last season in points per scoring opportunity – a key metric in capping totals. Army is also perennially amongst the national leaders in fourth down attempts. This number attracted early over steam before dipping back below the ultra-key number of 55.
Missouri @ Kansas State
Target: Kansas St -7
High-variance game alert. Missouri sought to rectify its deplorable 2021 defense (113th in EPA/play; 120th in rush defense EPA) when it hired LSU safeties coach Blake Baker as its defensive coordinator. His debut against Louisiana Tech was a mixed bag, with the Tigers wreaking havoc (29% havoc rate; three interceptions) on a beleaguered Tech offensive line, but allowing 6.3 yards per play and three long touchdowns (scoring plays of 75, 64, and 37 yards). New Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez has a well-earned reputation as a boom-or-bust dice roll, and he’ll have ample opportunities to engineer explosive plays against an improved - but still susceptible - Mizzou defense. Defensively, K-State’s 3-3-5 draws a favorable matchup against Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook, who won an underwhelming three-way camp competition and will likely find himself in frequent passing down situations after the Mizzou offensive line allowed 10 tackles for loss last week. There’s a significant advantage for KSU up front on both sides of the ball. Chris Klieman is 7-1 ATS with an absurd +14.4 point cover margin in non-conference games and is 24-11 overall ATS, covering by nearly a touchdown. I’m in if a KSU -7 pops.
Memphis @ Navy
Target: Navy +6
While I was pleased to see Delaware secure an outright upset in Annapolis last Saturday, the final result was perhaps the most misleading of the entire week. CFBData’s postgame win expectancy gave Navy a 90% chance of winning, but the Mids torpedoed their own vessel with an astounding five lost fumbles and an 0-for-3 showing on fourth downs. Both of those stats are subject to wild game-to-game variance, and I certainly do not expect a repeat performance this week. Meanwhile, Ryan Silverfield is 6-16 ATS in two-plus years at Memphis and has never covered a road game (0-10 ATS), failing to cover by nearly 11 points per game. Memphis was a woeful 105th in rush defense EPA last season and could be without two starting linebackers who left injured from the Mississippi State game. New Memphis defensive coordinator Matt Barnes has no recent experience prepping for the triple option and has an extreme challenge pivoting to option prep following an offseason gearing up for the Leach Air Raid. I grabbed Navy +7 (-115) at the open but am fine with this down to +6 with a moneyline piece as well.
Appalachian State @ Texas A&M
Target: TAMU -17
I laid 16.5 with the Aggies on Sunday but am unwilling to play this past the key number of -17. By the time this column is published, I imagine this line will be in the -18/-19 range. Anyway, the world is well-aware of App State’s historic exploits last week. Suffice it to say things will look quite different on Saturday in College Station. While Chase Brice looked like an all-conference quarterback against the paper-mache UNC defense, his history is replete with poor performances against defenses who can unsettle him in the pocket.
Despite former defensive coordinator Mike Elko departing for Duke, the Aggies’ defense didn’t miss a beat in D.J. Durkin’s debut, shutting out a strong Sam Houston offense and allowing a stingy 4.1 yards per play. Like Elko, Durkin isn’t particularly blitz-happy, but with arguably the premier secondary in the country, he can afford to rely on his front seven to generate pressure without sending waves of blitzers. App State is replacing its entire receiving group and is likely to attempt to shorten the clock with a short passing game and conservative runs. I expect App State to move the ball between the 20s, but Brice’s turnover-prone tendencies are likely to manifest in the red zone. It’s tough to lay this number with a risk-averse luddite like Jimbo, but I made this line -22 and trust the elite Aggie secondary to goad Brice into several poor decisions.
Brief caveat: I was a fan of App State hiring Kevin Barbay as offensive coordinator after he engineered a prolific offense at CMU. If App State hangs around, Barbay’s play calling will likely be the main reason.
San Jose St @ Auburn
Target: Under 51
San Jose State was a top-25 defense in EPA last season and finished ninth in havoc caused. The overwhelming majority of those havoc-causers are back this season, led by the MWC’s best edge rushing duo. Like last week, Auburn will lean on the run in early downs (70/30 run/pass split on early downs) in order to neutralize the SJSU pass rush. Bryan Harsin said the dual-quarterback system will continue indefinitely but neither quarterback is much of a threat to chuck the ball downfield for explosive plays. With Penn State on-deck, I don’t anticipate a particularly creative gameplan here from Auburn. Defensively, Auburn’s defensive line is teed up for a massive day against an SJSU offensive line that allowed an astounding 19% havoc rate (including seven sacks) to Portland State last week. The Spartans posted a brutal 37% success rate and lost the available yards battle by a considerable margin. SJSU turning pass-heavy and Cordeiro going full gunslinger is concerning, but I grabbed 51.5 after it jumped above the very important number of 51.
Quick Hitters
- UAB steamed to -6.5 when Charlie Brewer was announced out for Liberty. I’m not sure such a move is warranted with dynamic redshirt freshman and ex-Tennessee commit Kaidon Salter offering significantly more upside as a dual-threat. Hugh Freeze is 22-11 ATS as an underdog, covering by more than 5 points per game. Liberty’s power run game dominated last season’s matchup in Birmingham and I would be a Flames buyer if this line reaches +7.
- Notre Dame deployed an optimal game plan for a big underdog, shortening the game in Columbus with a quick-hitting passing game and a crawling pace. Unless they plan to take the training wheels off of Tyler Buchner, the tempo and conservative play-calling will work against them this week as three-touchdown favorites. Marshall quarterback Henry Colombi lacks Grant Wells’ arm talent, but he’s a grizzled veteran and far superior decision-maker who won’t put the ball in jeopardy. Marcus Freeman made a big fuss out of Notre Dame’s underdog status last week and the team responded in-kind. I’m skeptical he’ll have them locked in to the same extent with the roles now reversed. Waiting for a +21 to pop on the Herd.
- Speaking of conservative teams laying copious points, Cal was a popular Week 1 fade against UC Davis. Do not be dissuaded by the final score; this game was nearly dead-even in the advanced box score. UC Davis threw a pick-6, turned it over on downs on fourth-and-1 inside the Cal 10, and threw another interception at the Cal 25. UNLV acquired ample Portal talent in the offseason and appears undervalued due to Doug Brumfield missing substantial time last season. He’s a difference-maker at quarterback. Cal has a trip to South Bend next week and isn’t built to lay double-digit points. I played the Rebs +13.
- Herm Edwards has a sparkling track record as an underdog (11-4 ATS; 7.0 cover margin) but this line is a little short for my liking. Given the uncertainty surrounding Arizona State - as well as OSU’s defensive warts in the post-Jim Knowles era – I’m inclined to take a very small shot at the ASU ML as part of a round robin. This could also turn into a blowout if ASU falls behind early as Emory Jones isn’t built to win games with his arm.
- Lost amid the delirium of Rutgers pulling a road upset was the deplorable performance of Boston College’s reconfigured offensive line. While some growing pains were anticipated with five new starters, no reasonable person could have anticipated 0.1 line yards per attempt and 12 tackles for loss. Virginia Tech’s defensive line controlled the game at ODU and can do the same here against BC. Both quarterbacks in this game are notorious for high-variance decisions and will be under constant pressure behind their respective overmatched offensive lines. I expect a few big plays, but neither team projects to be able to move the ball consistently.
- It’s fair to speculate where Oregon State-Fresno State would have opened prior to the Beavers’ win over Boise. A closer look into the box score reveals that the Beavers’ erstwhile vaunted run game was stymied by Boise’s front seven (38% rush success rate). Fresno was 24th in rush defense EPA last season and can force Chance Nolan into long-yardage passing downs. I made this Fresno -8 prior to the Boise game and only adjusted the Beavers up one point. Fresno PK/+1 is still widely available as of this column.
- Wyoming pulled off a miracle win against Tulsa despite allowing 7 yards per play. With a short week looming ahead of a Friday night conference opener against Air Force, I don’t expect anything fancy defensively from the sievish ‘Pokes. Northern Colorado’s season-opening loss to Houston Baptist was rather deceiving as the Bears lost three fumbles – one of which was scooped up for a long touchdown. UNC coach Ed McCaffrey said after the game that his starting quarterback son (Dylan, Michigan transfer) was banged up and couldn’t continue. The Bears rallied in the second half behind CMU transfer (and former Washington four-star recruit) Jacob Sirmon, who looked like the far superior option. UNC’s pass offense is legitimately solid and will be able to move the ball at will against an atrocious Wyoming secondary. McCaffrey also announced that defensive leader and 2nd-Team All American linebacker David Hoage will be “out for a while” after sustaining an injury in practice leading up to the HBU game. UNC’s defense was already thin after being hammered by graduation losses and Hoage was third in FCS last season in tackles for loss (also had 10.5 sacks). I like the Bears to push the tempo through the air regardless of who starts at quarterback and would be in on the over at 49 or better.