CFB Week 2 round-robin ML parlay: A healthy dose of ACC 'dogs

Just over 40% of games with a favorite of -14 or shorter in Week 1 finished within a touchdown. The high frequency of close results in NCAAF is cause for bettors to cherish every point they can get when it comes to betting underdogs. The most common closing lines in college football are 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6.5, 7, and 7.5 – all values straddling the two most frequent outcomes of three and seven. One of the toughest battles I have in betting college football is when should I take the points, and when should I grab the moneyline?

In these weekly articles, I will dig in and give out my favorite underdog moneyline plays for each week – to be played both individually, and thrown into a round robin parlay if you’re looking for a little extra sweat on your Saturdays.

The Moneyline Math

It only feels right to start the first NCAAF underdog moneyline article with a little math. I’ve had to do the math to prove to myself the profitability of playing dogs on the moneyline, so I might as well share it with you all.

One big assumption I made in the following calculation is what moneylines are available for each point spread? I used historical data from last year and a couple odds calculators to make these assumptions, but obviously totals and other factors play into this as well. The results are conclusive enough that the moneyline assumption wouldn’t change anything. Secondly, don’t play something you don’t have an edge on blindly because of the trends I show from the last 10 years. Just because the numbers show a +ROI over a 200+ game sample size, that should not result in you betting games at these numbers blindly.

This table shows how NCAAF underdogs between +3.5 and +7.5 have performed since 2012:

Yes, that’s a lot of numbers. Sorry if I lost you, but I’m sure there is someone out there who is thankful to see the data, so I figured I’d include it. In summary, taking moneylines for underdogs in the +3.5 to +7.5 range has been profitable – especially dogs of +4.5 to +7.5. On the flip side, against the spread these teams have netted a -2% ROI, as shown in the table below:

Okay, let’s get to the point: betting underdogs +3.5 to +7.5 ATS and blindly losing 2% means nothing, that’s how it should be with VIG. However, the profitable ML results of playing teams in the +4.5 to +7.5 range suggests that there may be an advantage playing these underdogs on the moneyline, especially if we can use outside sources (like a well-trained model) to help identify the underdogs in these ranges who show true value to win.

The Picks

After boring you with the math for a few minutes, I’ll jump straight into these plays without too much fluff.

Virginia ML +164 (FanDuel)

I have Virginia by three here. The line set at 4.5 suggests that Illinois is 2.5 points better than Virginia on a neutral, which baffles me. I have Virginia rated much higher than Illinois on a neutral and I feel very comfortable with that rating. Illinois took A TON of action last week. I was able to grab +4.5 on a line that closed pick ‘em. The Illini ended up falling at Indiana by 3, but fortunately covered my number.

I don’t think I’m overly bearish on the Illini, but the market is seemingly in love with this team early this season. Rush defense is a possible concern for the Cavs, but they were able to jump out to an early lead in last year’s matchup and limited Brown to just 41 yards on 7 carries. Brown should be more of a factor in Saturday’s game, but Armstrong and the Cavs offense should jump out to another early lead and take care of business. I’m thrilled to take Virginia at this number, and you should be too.

Louisville ML + 180 (DraftKings)

Seeing Louisville as nearly a full touchdown underdog here was quite the surprise. UCF went to Louisville last September as 7-point favorites, only to fall to the Cardinals 42-35. Louisville returns arguably as much as anyone in the country on offense (at least top-10). I’m a true believer in Malik Cunningham, who struggled in Louisville’s opener at Syracuse – a game that the Cardinals lost 31-7 as 6-point favorites. Cunningham shined last year against this UCF defense – throwing for 265 yards and a TD, while tacking on another 99 yards and 2 TDs rushing. This is a huge market overreaction to week 1 for the Cardinals, and I am happy to take them at just over 35% implied odds here.

Pittsburgh ML +202 (FanDuel)

Following similar logic to the Louisville play - Pitt is another great way to take advantage of market over-reactions from week 1. Pitt found themselves as a popular pick last Thursday night in a stand-alone game. They struggled defensively and stud running-back Israel Abanikanda looked flat and was outshined by Sophomore Rodney Hammond who brought a spark to the Pitt offense after the 1^st quarter. In a bizarre sequence of events – which included a late pick-6 – Pitt was able to backdoor a -7 push. However, despite pushing the touchdown spread, the market seems to have lost faith in Pitt’s new, run-heavy offensive scheme. On the other hand, Tennessee coasted by Ball State behind Hendon Hooker’s 4 touchdowns. This line opened at 4 and Tennessee was quickly bought up to 6.5/7. Getting Pitt at home with implied odds of 33% here - when I have the game at nearly a coin-flip - is a steal.

Kentucky ML +184 (FanDuel)

I was against Florida last week, which ended up costing me a unit as Utah threw a late interception in the endzone on 2^nd down. Utah closed -2.5 last Saturday in Gainesville and were 6 yards away from winning the game and covering that number. The Florida offense and Anthony Richardson looked great, totaling over 450 yards, which I certainly didn’t see coming. Was I impressed with Florida – especially offensively? Absolutely. However, I am not rushing to bump Florida in my power-ratings like everyone else. Florida jumped from unranked to 12^th in the AP Poll this week, after covering by 5.5 points on a late interception. The media’s cluelessness and over-reaction to Florida is being reflected in the betting markets this week with Florida favored by 6 points over the Kentucky Wildcats.

I thought I was very down on this Kentucky team this year and I really didn’t expect to be betting on them much, if ever. However, if this game took place last week and we erased the Utah game – which once again could’ve gone either way – from our memories, this line probably sits around Florida -2.5 / -3. That is where I have this game lined at, and I’ll happily take implied odds of 35% on a game where I am only showing Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.

Best Bets:

• Virginia ML +164 (FanDuel) *1 unit
• Louisville ML + 180 (DraftKings) *1 unit
• Pittsburgh ML +202 (FanDuel) *1 unit
• Kentucky ML +184 (FanDuel) *1 unit

4-team round robin 6x2, 4x3, 1x4 for 0.1u each *1.1 units risked