Georgia State -2
There’s nothing matchup-specific here – my numbers have Georgia State as nearly a touchdown favorite on a neutral field. The Panthers were terribly unlucky through their first four games prior to breaking through on Saturday at West Point. This was a consensus top-70 team in most power rankings entering the season and the metrics continue to support that ranking; GSU was 52nd in overall EPA prior to the Army game and torched the Cadets for 7.0 yards per carry and 323 rushing yards. Georgia Southern’s rush defense is bottom 10 nationally. Meanwhile, Kyle Van Trease leads all Group of 5 quarterbacks in PFF’s turnover-worthy plays. In a likely shootout, those turnovers could lead to quick GSU touchdowns on short fields. This line implies that Georgia Southern is the slightly better team on a neutral. I simply do not see it and would be comfortable with Georgia State up through -3.
Akron +12.5
After backing Akron on Saturday at Bowling Green, I’m running it back with Joe Moorhead’s Zips, who are steadily improving week-to-week yet still being unfairly characterized as a bottom-five team nationally. D.J. Irons looked fully healthy against BGSU and appears well-suited to operate Moorhead’s RPO-centric attack. Akron’s overall profile is weighed down by two massive losses at Michigan State and Tennessee, both of whom made concerted efforts to score until the final whistle. Do not be deceived by Ohio’s near-miss overtime loss at Kent State. The Bobcats allowed an astounding 736 yards from scrimmage (36 first downs!) and had just a 1% postgame win expectancy. This was one of the flukiest results of the season thus far. As always, MAC games are filled with extreme game-to-game variance and the Ohio defense isn’t worthy of laying double-digits against any league opponent. Zips +11 or better.
Purdue/Maryland under 61
I continuously cite this Jeff Brohm stat because it so directly contravenes public perception of the normally up-tempo Boilers. Since arriving in West Lafayette, Brohm is 18-7 to the under on the road, finishing an average of 6.3 points below the number. Yet again on Saturday, Brohm played crawl-ball in Minneapolis and happily dinked-and-dunked his way down the field with a low-ceiling, quick-hitting passing game. Defensively, the Boilers lead the country in preventing explosive plays – an absolute necessity when playing Maryland. Purdue is also sixth in havoc caused by its defensive backs and at least has a puncher’s chance of mitigating an elite Maryland receiving room. The Terps’ defense has taken a quantum forward leap this season and grades out in the top 20 in pass defense EPA. Purdue is entirely disinterested in running the ball (fifth-lowest rush rate nationally) and Maryland can confidently drop seven or eight into coverage without fear of being gashed on the ground. I expect this game script to be much slower than this lofty total implies and am comfortable down to 59.
FIU +4.5
UCONN’s stunning upset over Fresno flew under the radar, but the final result said more about the losers than the winners as Fresno resoundingly flunked its first post-Jake Haener test. UCONN is rife with injuries at nearly every position group and now heads down to Miami for a relaxing break from some lousy Northeast weather. Despite the better angels of my nature warning me to stay away, I made this game a pick’em and took the bait on FIU +4.5. Like Moorhead at Akron, Mike MacIntyre is a solid coach (career 54.2% ATS in more than 100 games) whose inaugural roster will likely improve as the season progresses at his new school. I suspected - but failed to act on - a hunch prior to the New Mexico State game that the Panthers had bottomed out in the market and would present some value moving forward. This line looks like a massive overreaction to UCONN defeating a Fresno team mired in a freefall.
Quick Hitters
- Perhaps it was gameplan-specific, but Mark Whipple committed to a run-heavy approach against Indiana (62/38 run/pass) with a 70% rush rate on early downs. Prior to being predictably decimated by Ohio State’s electric rushing attack, Rutgers was holding up well against the run (23rd in rush defense EPA) and should be able to contain Nebraska’s backfield. Jettisoning its embattled defensive coordinator appeared to benefit Nebraska, as the Huskers held Indiana’s offense to -0.19 EPA/play. Noah Vedral finally made his much-anticipated season debut, but took just five snaps before being replaced by dink-and-dunker Evan Simon. With such a limited passer under center, Rutgers will continue to lean on the run and operate at a crawling pace. This number is likely a tad inflated after the Indiana game; the Hoosiers currently lead the country in plays per minute. I can’t yet get involved at 51.5 but would consider the under if it shoots up into the 54 range.
- The winner of UNLV/San Jose State will have a clear path to the MWC West Division title. Per FPI, the Spartans currently have a 44% chance; UNLV is at 33%. The Rebs have a considerable raw talent advantage in this game and benefit from an extra day of prep with SJSU returning from a long Saturday evening trip to Laramie. Despite a non-cover on Friday against New Mexico, the Rebs still appear to be significantly undervalued in the market. Bill Connelly’s S&P puts them at 101st; I’m 20 spots higher in my own ratings. SJSU is not built to cover big numbers and the Rebs’ electrifying rushing attack positions them well to pull an outright upset. This is also among the most lopsided special teams discrepancies of Week 6 (UNLV is 13th; SJSU 119th, per PFF). SJSU took early money last week and is hopefully on some group hitlists this week as well. I’m content playing +6 but will wait a few days for a potential +7 to pop on the Vegas boys.
- You won’t find a better on-paper “buy-low” spot than Miami returning from a two-week layoff against North Carolina. Perhaps you’ve forgotten that merely a month ago, the ‘Canes were a chic national title sleeper pick and the clear favorite to win the ACC Coastal. I saw quite a bit of downside and played UNC +800 to win the division. I’m considering Miami as a quasi-hedge on my Heels Coastal ticket, but even putting aside that personal interest, this is an obvious “get up” spot for the ‘Canes following a catastrophic home defeat to Middle Tennessee last Saturday. Perhaps the market is overreacting to UNC’s blowout win over a hapless Virginia Tech squad, but the Heels’ defensive issues have not been rectified. VA Tech’s offense is simply that horrific. It’s also quite possible that UNC’s offense – the most explosive in the country – will pick apart a mistake-prone Miami secondary. I’d love the ‘Canes at -3 or better and expect significant swings this week as there will likely be market-moving groups on both sides of this game.
- Last season’s Army/Wake Forest game was the highest scoring in the last four years of FBS football as the teams combined for more than 1200 yards from scrimmage. Conventional wisdom always dictates playing triple option teams as significant underdogs, but the Wake offense presents an impossible matchup for Army’s embattled defense. Sam Hartman and the RPO mesh immolated a 2021 Army defensive unit far superior to this season’s version. New Wake defensive coordinator Brad Lambert’s retooled defensive front is holding up quite well against the run; the Deacs are 37th in line yards allowed after finishing outside of the top 100 last year. Given Army’s 2022 defensive downgrade, it’s unsurprising that this season’s matchup opened with a total of 65, more than 10 points higher than the closing number last season (54.5). Wake’s blistering tempo and hot start in last year’s meeting forced Army to speed up offensively. It seems reasonably likely that a similar game script transpires here. Army will dominate the time of possession battle, but Wake might score every time it touches the ball. I can’t quite play over 65, but something around 63 would be much more palatable.
- David Shaw has failed to cover in 11 straight games dating back to last season. On Saturday, Oregon physically abused Stanford’s defensive line in one of the most humiliating defensive showings of Shaw’s tenure. Oregon State doesn’t have Oregon’s backfield talent, but its offensive line is similarly aggressive and can bully the overmatched Cardinal front. Only Hawaii and North Texas are allowing more line yards per carry than Stanford. The Beavers played far better in Salt Lake on Saturday than the final box indicates, outgaining (and “first downing”) the Utes, but two early Chance Nolan interceptions – the second of which was returned for a touchdown – put the Beavers in an impossible position on the road against a top 10-caliber team. Jonathan Smith yanked Nolan following the second INT and I suspect this situation will remain unclear throughout the week. Regardless of which QB is under center, the futility of Stanford’s defensive front will allow OSU to implement a run-heavy game plan and alleviate the pressure on its questionable passing game. Nolan struggled against USC and Utah but has been a consistent passer across multiple seasons. His leash should be fairly long and I expect him to start on Saturday. I would buy the Beavers at -6 or better.
- Florida State rated slightly ahead of NC State on a neutral field would have been inconceivable a month ago when the Wolfpack were uniformly hailed as a national breakout pick. Realistically, they were never a top-10 team; this was entirely a media creation. I’m somewhat inclined to buy NC State on the dip, but Dave Doeren’s defense couldn’t contain Clemson’s quarterback run game last week and will now face an even better runner in Jordan Travis, who still has not recorded a turnover-worthy throw this season, per PFF. NC State’s broken run game is putting too much onus on Devin Leary.
- With the exception of the win at Georgia State, Coastal Carolina hasn’t shown any interest or ability in burying anyone. The slow, run-heavy style of play and defensive warts aren’t conducive to doing so. Plenty of competent teams have run into trouble in the swamps of Monroe, where Terry Bowden is 4-1 ATS as a home dog, covering by an average of 17.9 points. I have no edge against the number, but situationally, this looks like a game where Coastal – following a thrilling fourth quarterback comeback win over Georgia Southern – could get caught peeking ahead to a grueling remaining schedule. This line is presently painted 14; I’d like to get the hook with the Warhawks.