Marshall -7
The Herd only has one discernible weakness – a leaky offensive line that has allowed “havoc” at the second-highest rate nationally. Fortunately, Louisiana’s front seven is unlikely to exploit this deficiency; the Cajuns are 114th in front seven havoc caused. Marshall should likewise benefit from Rasheen Ali’s long-awaited season debut. Ali – last season’s national leader in rushing touchdowns – will team with Khalan Laborn to form the best one-two tailback punch in the Sun Belt. His running style (fourth among Group of 5 running backs last season in missed tackles forced) will greatly aid a scuffling Marshall red zone offense. ULL’s defensive metrics are wildly inflated by a bottom-five schedule to-date. On the road at Rice two weeks ago, the Cajuns were disemboweled by an underwhelming Owls squad, losing the total yardage battle 449-175. Defensively, the Herd currently ranks 18th in tackling (per PFF) – a necessary trait against a quick-hitting ULL passing game that has little interest in throwing deep. This is a plus matchup for Marshall’s top 20 pass rush, which can get after ULL backup quarterback Ben Woolridge on passing downs without fear of being burned downfield. Marshall also has a notable special teams edge, grading out 25th in PFF’s rankings; ULL is dead-last nationally (131st). With both teams having extra time to prepare, I’ll side with the superior coaching staff buoyed by the return of its offensive engine against a young Cajuns team struggling to find an identity in the post-Billy Napier era. I laid -7 with Marshall but would play it up to -9.
Nebraska +14
This is a fairly obvious “sell-high” spot on Purdue following consecutive road upset wins at Minnesota and Maryland. The Boilers’ methodical, low-ceiling passing game is conducive to hanging tough as underdogs, but plays poorly for a double-digit favorite. Entering Week 7, Purdue is bottom-25 nationally in explosive play rate and is relying upon long, sustained drives for points. Miraculously, at 2-1, Nebraska is fully ensconced in the race for the B1G West title and maintains full control of its fate with three upcoming games against Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota. Ugly as it was, the Huskers’ Friday night win at Rutgers perhaps breathed renewed life into a season that appeared lost. Every opponent tramples Nebraska’s putrid run defense, but Purdue has little interest in running the ball (third-highest passing rate nationally) and has had issues closing out games due to this deficiency. Despite regularly adjusting down Nebraska’s power rating, I still only make this number around 9.5, and that is prior to any situational adjustments. I’m content with the Huskers at +11 or better.
Baylor -3
As with ULL/Marshall, I’m inclined to side with the superior coaching staff when both teams have additional time to prepare. While the West Virginia offense is mid-pack nationally in most relevant stats, the defense has woefully underperformed. Per Adam McClintock’s coordinator grades, Jordan Lesley grades out 124th among all defensive coordinators and the Mountaineers are 107th in overall defensive EPA. This is a mismatch up front with Baylor’s offensive line likely to control the line of scrimmage and keep Blake Shapen out of unwinnable third-and-longs. Baylor’s lack of skill position talent was apparent in its loss three weeks ago at BYU, but West Virginia is outside of the top 100 defensively on standard downs. Shapen should be able to methodically move the ball. Baylor is also sixth nationally in finishing drives; WVU is 112th defensively in the same stat. The market is affording West Virginia substantial deference here because of the long travel and raucous Thursday night crowd in Morgantown, but the coaching disparity is far too wide to ignore. Bears -3 or better.
Central Michigan/Akron over 58.5
Central Michigan (13th in plays per minute) and Akron (38th) portends as perhaps the fastest game of the Week 7 slate. Relative to other Group of Five teams, the Zips’ offense might be the most improved in the country compared with last season as D.J. Irons is flourishing in Joe Moorhead’s RPO scheme. The defense is another matter entirely after allowing more than 400 total yards to Bowling Green and nearly 600 to Ohio. CMU quarterback Daniel Richardson is a big-play machine and leads an offense that ranks 22nd nationally in explosive play rate. Do not be deceived by CMU’s box score from its loss to Ball State on Saturday. The Chips ran a blistering 96 plays from scrimmage and generated seven scoring opportunities, but a collection of untimely errors (and a 5-for-20 showing on third down) led to just 10 points on those seven trips inside the Ball State 40. In addition to playing with above-average pace, both teams are extremely pass-heavy (Akron is 4th; CMU is 11th) leading to frequent clock stoppages. I played over 58.5 but would add to this position if the number drops during the week.
Quick Hitters
- San Jose State laying less than a touchdown against free-falling Fresno State is a bargain…if you can confirm that Jake Haener will be out again. Jeff Tedford has been tight-lipped regarding Haener’s status. In Haener’s stead, Logan Fife has graded out as the third-lowest graded Mountain West quarterback in PFF’s rankings, trailing only Miles Kendrick (New Mexico) and Joey Yellen (Hawaii). Defensive leader Evan Williams has also been out since the Oregon State game. Major lean to SJSU at anything under a TD as the Haener uncertainty is the only thing keeping this line around -5.5/-6.
- UCLA drew national attention to Utah’s defensive shortcomings, but this is not a brand-new development. A week prior, Oregon State, playing most of the game with a backup quarterback, outgained the Utes in Salt Lake City 417-361. Lincoln Riley is 3-0 as an underdog, covering by an average of 11.5 points. I lean USC at +4 or better, but the Trojans’ calamitous special teams (128th per PFF, 120th per S&P) could lead to disaster against a top-10 Utah unit. Both offenses will move the ball with relative ease between the 20s, and this very much looks like a game that will be decided by one or two crucial red zone stops.
- The market opened Minnesota/Illinois with a razor-sharp total of 39. I lean under at this number but will wait for the very key number of 41. These are two of the slowest teams in the country and Illinois could be without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito, who has quietly played stellar football this season. Both defenses are top five nationally in overall EPA.
- Matt Campbell has perhaps the most impressive coaching track record in the country as an underdog. Per BetLabs, Campbell is 30-17 ATS, covering by an average of 4.8 points per game. The Cyclones’ grinding persona tends to create close games no matter the style of the opponent as even the most explosive offenses can get dragged into the mud. This is a very young Texas team that just played a perfect game against its most hated rival, and the Cyclones’ season is at a tipping point following an 0-3 start to conference play. Lean Iowa State at +17 or better, though the talent disparity in this game is jarring.