Champions League title odds: Searching for value in a top-heavy field

The Champions League is almost upon us again and the tournament remains the objective for all major European sides. 

The financial dominance of the Premier League has been further witnessed by the unmitigated spending all the way down the division. Other members of the so-called ‘Big Five’ - La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 - have relinquished their major talents, but the fish that have become a little too big for those respective ponds have been able to either keep their teams intact, or strengthen further. 

All of which makes the outright market for the Champions League an interesting one. 

Manchester City are installed as +250 favorites which feels both right and wrong in equal measure. City are absolutely the best team in Europe at this current moment, and though some have concerns over their depth, the collective has arguably never been stronger with the addition of Erling Haaland, Kalvin Phillips and Julian Alvarez. Pep Guardiola’s team are purring and will take some stopping. 

In fact you could argue that a combination of Pep overthinking his tactics and that of his opponents, combined with knockout competition variance, is all that has stopped City winning the Champions League before now. The late Rodrygo double whammy against Real Madrid last season really was a statistical aberration, and one that is unlikely to repeat itself.

Given the new squad additions, with Haaland slotting in seamlessly so far, their favoritism is warranted but the price doesn’t provide any value for an unprecedented event, but the market of which country could emerge victorious is interesting. 

At -120 the price is not exactly thrilling, but there’s been an English team in four of the last five finals, two of which, Liverpool v Tottenham and Chelsea v Manchester City, were all-English affairs. 

With the relative strength of the English challenge versus the weakened competition, it’s hard not to consider an English winner a smart play. 

Elsewhere, PSG have been tearing Ligue 1 asunder this season and there’s belief new coach Christophe Galtier has the tactical nous to get the best from this team of superstars. Lionel Messi appears renewed, while Neymar is producing some of his best football in years. Coupled with Kylian Mbappe’s future secured and things look ominously serene at the French giants. Currently +500, that price could shorten if they put on a show in the group stages. 

Selecting an outright winner before the tournament has begun is always tricky, but for a combination of value and a good run for your money, Bayern at +650 seems too big a price. 

Robert Lewandowski may be gone, but if anything Julian Nagelsmann’s side appear to have been unlocked in an attacking sense and, with Sadio Mane added, have barely missed a beat. They will not be challenged in the Bundesliga title race and will be able to rest and rotate for virtually the entire season - crucial in a World Cup year. With Matthijs De Ligt and Ryan Gravenberch offering depth in defence in attack, their summer business has been superb and it would be of no surprise to see them win the title they lifted back in 2020. 

Beyond Real Madrid at +900 - again a good price for a proven champion, though one that has lost its midfield general, Casemiro - there’s little value in the market as even at each-way prices, a team would be required to reach the final in order to be paid, and this tournament more than any other is dominated by the big guns. 

So stick to the market leaders, and we’ll go for Bayern at +650 to do it.