If there’s one lesson we’ve learned this year, it is to never trust the Los Angeles Rams regardless of the value. We’ve fallen for it twice now; they may just be going through a Super Bowl slump, or Matthew Stafford’s elbow might be bothering him more than we think. Regardless, Cam Akers went well under the number for rushing yards on Monday, giving us a 1-1 night and a 3-3 week overall. Let’s burn the tape and turn our attention to the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Colts @ Broncos
The Broncos and Russell Wilson are coming off their best offensive performance of the season (which isn’t saying much) in a 32-23 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Wilson threw for 237 yards - his most since Week 1 when he went for 340 yards in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. It’s been tough sledding for the offense, who rank third-last in the NFL for points per game (16.5). What’s worse is that they haven’t been able to convert once their offense makes a trip into the red zone, hitting paydirt just 30% of the time in those situations - by far the worst mark in the NFL. Wilson has thrown just two touchdown passes within 20 yards of the end zone while completing just 56% of his passes in those situations. That’s worse than Carson Wentz (63%), Geno Smith (64%), Davis Mills (66%), Cooper Rush (71%), and Jameis Winston (57%). To put it mildly, it has been a year to forget so far for Nathaniel Hackett’s offense, which has continuously sputtered when it matters most.
On the other side, it doesn’t get much better for Matt Ryan and the Colts. Indianapolis has scored just 57 points in four weeks, averaging 14.3 points per game - the worst mark in the NFL by nearly two points (Chicago averages 16 points per game). The running game is producing just 87.8 yards per game - the sixth-worst mark in the NFL - and Jonathon Taylor has been ruled out for Thursday. Teams have been able to stack the box against the Colts, who refused to add a stud wideout in the offseason - Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Parris Campbell just haven’t been able to get the job done through the air. We talked about Wilson’s inability in the red zone, but it’s Ryan who might have the worst numbers in the NFL in that situation. Aside from his team converting red-zone trips into a touchdown only 46.15% of the time (26th in the league), Ryan has completed just 45.5% of his passes inside his opponents’ 20-yard line. Just six QBs in the league have a worse number than that.
On the defensive side, both the Broncos (fourth - 284.8 yards) and Colts (sixth - 297 yards) rank in the top 10 in yards against per game. Denver ranks just inside the top five for points against with 17, and has an elite secondary that ranks eighth in DVOA in the NFL for pass defense.
The math adds up here: two offenses unable to score that are run by two quarterbacks who can’t move the ball up against some of the better defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are 3-1 to the under this season, and the Colts 4-0. Coming off a short week, let’s take the under and watch yet another boring Thursday nighter together.
Bet: Under 42.5 (-120 at Proline)
For as bad as their offense has been, the Colts’ run defense has actually been quite good, even without Shaq Leonard for the majority of the season. Going into their loss against the Titans, the Colts had allowed just 2.6 yards per carry on 88 carries under Frank Reich; linebackers Bobby Okereke and E.J. Speed both rank inside the top 10 among Pro Football Focus’ grades for run defense at linebacker. And the defense as a whole ranks 11th in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. Derrick Henry brought them back down to Earth, but this is a prime comeback spot against a putrid offense.
Yes, Javonte Williams is out, yes Melvin Gordon is going to be the feature running back come Thursday night, but I believe the number for receiving plus rushing yards is still too high for him (77.5). Indy’s defense has allowed just 358 (89.5 per game) yards overall on the ground this season, ranking them sixth in the league. Mike Boone and newly signed Latavius Murray will eat into his production - regardless of what Hackett says. He’s leading you on to be let down by Gordon, who has been banged up with a neck injury this week in practice. MGIII hasn’t even sniffed the number this year. He came close in Week 1, but he’s put up just 53, 55, and 8 all-purpose yards, respectively, in the following weeks. Now is not the time to be fooled by Hackett.
Bet: Melvin Gordon under 77.5 receiving + rush yards (-115 at DraftKings)