The Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 5. This game features the home Broncos as 3.5-point favorites, while the game has a total of 42.5. Primetime games are 9-4 to the under so far this season and this matchup has all the makings of another slow-paced game. The Colts have played to the under in nine straight dating back to last season, averaging just 14.3 points per game through their first four, while the Broncos are averaging 16.5. Although this is a prop article, be sure to take a look at the under when placing your bets Thursday.
Best bets
The Colts are going to be without star running back Jonathan Taylor due to an ankle injury. So, what does this mean for the prop market? To me, this means we are staying far away from any Colts running game props, rather turning to their only premier pass catcher. Matt Ryan has shown signs of regression through four games but as we head into this Denver matchup, this Colts team may once again find themselves playing from behind. If this does happen to be the case, Michael Pittman will be in prime position to see a heavy workload and should shine under the lights.
The Colts obviously pride themselves on being able to run the football, but without Taylor we may see a little bit of a tweak to the game plan. Because of that, I turned to Pittman and his longest reception prop. We had success with Ja’Marr Chase in this same market last week, and I believe Pittman is the only true alpha in the Colts receiving room. He played over 90% of snaps a week ago and had a 30% target share. He has surpassed tonight’s total of 23.5 in two of three games this season, while averaging 9.3 targets. This particular bet does feel like more of a projection for the way the Colts may have to play this matchup, but getting it at +108 odds made it a clear standout over anything else on the Colts’ side of the ball. If Matt Ryan can get up towards the 40+ attempts range I like this spot for Pittman to take that 30% target share and turn one of them into a long gain.
Michael Pittman Jr. longest reception over 23.5 (+108) Caesars 1u
The Broncos have been hit with a serious injury in their backfield as starting running back Javonte Williams is out for the year after suffering a devastating knee injury in Week 4’s loss to the Raiders. This should result in a running-back-by-committee approach for the Broncos, who will turn to veterans Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray, with Mike Boone rotating in. Russell Wilson and the offense has looked far less explosive than expected, and with this injury to Williams, we will likely see much of the same over the next few weeks.
However, the one playmaker I do trust in this offense is Courtland Sutton. Sutton has a red zone target in every game this season and continues to impress when given opportunity. He is averaging over 85 yards per game and where it gets interesting is his rankings across the league. Sutton ranks in the top-10 in target share, air yardage per target, red zone targets, and end zone targets, all boding very well for the prop bet we are placing on him in this one. He is coming into this matchup against a Colts secondary ranked 18th in passing touchdowns against, and I do believe he will take advantage of that. We have seen Wilson just miss Sutton on a few deep routes already this season that could have resulted in touchdowns, and after getting his first score last week, look for him to find his way back into the end zone on Thursday night.
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+160) .5u PointsBet