On one hand we get to turn the page on a new set of games and forget our first highly mediocre week of prime time picks. On the other hand, we have to handicap another Thursday game that will likely have us banging our head against the wall. That’s right, there’s another doozy on Thursday Night Football as Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders travel to Chicago to take on Justin Fields and the Bears. Try to be excited.
Commanders @ Bears
For a team that refuses to throw the ball, the Bears actually played some solid football a week ago, narrowly losing to the Minnesota Vikings, 29-22. The loss was their second consecutive and dropped their record to 2-3. It only gets worse for the Commanders, who are in the midst of a four-game losing streak after allowing their first 100-yard rusher of the season in Derrick Henry in a 21-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Commanders are sitting at a sad 1-4 on the year. Will they get back on track and win their first road game of 2022? Let’s take a look.
At first glance, Wentz’s prime time numbers are absolutely sparkling. He’s a perfect 6-0 on Thursday Night Football, and 16-8 in his career in prime time games overall. However, this Washington offense seems like it’s in a constant state of playing catch-up, regardless of who their opponent is. Wentz’s passing numbers are there, as he’s fourth in the NFL in yards with 1,390, but these numbers are primarily due to game script and should be taken with a grain of salt. His decision-making also leaves a lot to be desired, it almost pains me to watch this man play quarterback. He constantly rolls into pressure, fails to step up, and holds onto the ball for far too long. He’s second in the NFL with six interceptions through five games, and leads the league in getting thrown under the bus by his head coach (if you haven’t seen Ron Rivera blame Washington’s hardships on his “quarterback” I think it’s time that you do). Now, it definitely hasn’t been all his fault - he’s running for his life behind a shoddy offensive line that’s allowed 20 sacks, which is second-worst in the NFL, so blaming a terrible year on a mediocre quarterback might not be the best play from River boat Ron.
Wentz will have his work cut out for him against Chicago’s defense, as well, a unit allowing just 197 yards through the air this season - good for ninth in the NFL. On the other side, the Commanders cannot for the life of them stop mobile quarterbacks. Since the 2020 season, Washington has allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks (881 yards). Prepare to watch Justin Fields use the space the Commanders provide as he’s ran for 614 yards since entering the league in 2021, the fourth-most by a quarterback over that span. This year, he’s averaging about 39 yards a game. I’m expecting him to move the chains using his legs throughout the contest against a defense averaging 110 rushing yards against per game. Bettors should also look for Fields to carry some momentum from the second half against Minnesota. He made some solid throws while owning the best stat line of his season - 15 of 21 for 208 yards and a touchdown. Now, I know those numbers aren’t much, but Washington comes into the game with the 19th-ranked pass defense, so this is as good a game as any to make some noise offensively. The Bears are 31st in the NFL with just 1,370 yards of total offense, which is absolutely atrocious. But I think Fields, with some help from the defense, gets it done in what will be a sloppy, low-scoring game.
Bet: Bears moneyline (-105 at BetVictor)
I love a good story - we all do. And his entrance last week after what he went through to get back to the football field was one of the coldest I’ve ever seen. But I just can’t see rookie Brian Robinson getting over the number on Thursday night. Washington’s offensive line is ranked dead-last in the NFL in adjusted line yards by Football Outsiders. Even Chicago’s defense, which sits 22nd in EPA/rush and is allowing 124.4 rushing yards against running backs this year, will be fine against an offensive line that is a shell of its former self from a year ago. Not to mention the Commanders still employ Antonio Gibson, who is going to continue to eat into his production. Robinson ultimately played just 29% of the snaps a week ago, running for a meager 2.4 yards per carry, and there is nothing to tell us that he’s going to be the feature back once again on Thursday. It’s just too early to make that assumption and too small a sample size. Wentz is averaging 42 - yes FOURTY-TWO - attempts per game, which is going to leave Robinson and Gibson searching for carries in this one. Let’s have some fun and sweat the under out together.
Bet: Robinson under 50.5 yards (-110 PointsBet)