We have one of the most underwhelming matchups of the season on Thursday Night Football as the Washington Commanders go into Chicago to take on the Bears. The only way to make this game watchable is to find an edge or two in the prop market, which does present more value than one may assume. Although both teams have been abysmal at times this season, this is why we bet, to make an otherwise boring game interesting. Before we jump into a few props, let’s remember that just because a game has less appeal to the public than others, it does not mean there’s no value. In fact, the value may be more presentable as the public betting numbers tend to be down.
Best bets
Justin Fields looked like he may have figured something out in the second half of last week’s game against the Vikings. That may not be saying much, but when you take last week’s numbers and compare them with some of his prior games, there are signs of life in this Bears passing attack. A guy to have a closer look at tonight is Chicago tight end Cole Kmet, who came into the season as a breakout candidate but has yet to really have that breakout game. After a horrid start with no receptions through his first two games, he has slowly put together some improved numbers.
Kmet hauled in four receptions for 45 yards a week ago and has slowly worked his way into becoming one of Fields’ only options in the passing game. He deserves a greater role in this offense and as I have mentioned many times in the past, getting ahead of a player’s breakout game is a gamble I am willing to make, especially in this spot. Kmet’s receiving yards prop for Thursday Night Football is coming in at 27.5 yards, a total he has surpassed in two of his last three games. I know this Bears offense is still a work in progress and Kmet is still carving out his role, but if Justin Fields shows flashes of his second half from a week ago, I like Kmet to meet those preseason expectations and surpass this 27.5 number.
Kmet over 27.5 receiving yards (-111) 1u Bet365
As for Washington, all week I was focused in on Carson Wentz and his passing yardage prop. That was until the report came out that he is dealing with a bicep injury and plans to play through it while using the extended break ahead of next week’s game to recover. What we aren’t going to do is put money on a guy who is not 100%, and thus I looked into the Commanders’ backfield to see if there is any value in that committee.
Scoring 17 or fewer points in three straight games shows just the type of offense this Commanders team boasts. With that being said, they’re in need of a boost, so we could see Brian Robinson cement himself into the starter’s role in the backfield. The team wants him to become the featured back in this offense and after getting a game under his belt, the time is now. Robinson carries an unbelievable story with him and him being back on the field and ready for a heavier workload is truly remarkable.
Robinson carried the ball nine times for 22 yards against the Titans last week, which was a very strong workload considering it was his first game back. With J.D. McKissic being the clear pass-catching back and Robinson carrying nine times to Antonio Gibson’s three, I had a look at Robinson’s rushing attempts prop tonight. This number is set at 11.5 and I think he is poised to get into the teens tonight. Pairing the style of game this will be with Wentz and his injury concern, look for the Commanders to get the ground game going and showcase their rookie running back. At -135 odds to the over, I am confident in this play at a half unit.
Robinson over 11.5 rushing attempts (-135) .5u Caesars