I feel like that “Why are you booing me? I’m right” meme. Yes, I picked the Chicago Bears over the Washington Commanders. Did we win? No. Do I feel bad about it? Also no. The Bears outgained Washington 392-214 and repeatedly shot themselves in the foot when they were in the red zone. Ultimately, they were 0-3 in those possessions, failing to hit wide-open receivers, failing to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line, and failing to come down with what would have been the game-winning catch. It was brutal on all fronts. We picked the better team, they just didn’t want to win. But I digress. Let’s move on to what should be an incredible Sunday nighter between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Papa Fives has a couple of good-looking unders cooked up for you.
Cowboys @ Eagles
The Cowboys and Cooper Rush have been rolling lately and are in the middle of a four-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) after Dak Prescott went down in Week 1. On the other side it’s the perfect birds, who are 5-0 (3-2 ATS) rolling into Sunday night’s divisional matchup.
Prescott is still a few weeks away from returning, which means the Cowboys will be taking it to the ground once again in Week 6. Dallas has been winning with Rush spearheading the offense because he has yet to make a mistake - zero takeaways through four starts - and has been able to capitalize on his short and intermediate throws. Rush has yet to have a game where he throws for over 300 yards, and is coming off a spot against the Rams in which he attempted just 16 passes. But that’s what he is - a game manager. A week ago, the Cowboys dialed up 30 rushing plays, playing into the Rams’ vaunted pass rush, and had a ton of success. Tony Pollard went an uber-efficient 8 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Ezekiel Elliott handled 22 carries for 78 yards. Will this ground-and-pound continue, though? We want to say that this is likely. The Eagles have a great pass rush, coming away with 17 sacks on the season, which ranks the unit sixth in the NFL. It’s another terrifying rush, and the blueprint worked against the Rams. I’d expect the Cowboys to do the same against the Eagles - sustain long drives, take the time off the clock, and let Rush play off play-action, something they’ve been doing all season. Don’t expect big numbers from this offense, as Philly allows just 17.6 points per game this year - ranked seventh in the NFL.
On the other side, the Eagles will also no doubt stick to their bread and butter - the ground game. They’ve ran Miles Sanders and their stable of running backs into the ground this year; Sanders averages around 17 carries per game, while Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have all been involved. Not to mention Hurts, who absolutely will take off and keep the clock running. The Eagles love to hold possession, and are second in that category (33:52) in the NFL. But if any unit is a match to this high-flying offense, it’s the Dallas defense. The Cowboys have allowed just 14.4 points this year and are absolutely for real. This pass rush is the best unit the Eagles have faced all season and Hurts will be seeing the pressure come game time, an area in which he has struggled with this season. The Eagles’ QB1 is completing just 42% of his passes when feeling the pressure for just 5.3 yards per pass.
So to recap here, we have two great defenses going up against offenses who love to keep it on the ground. The clock will be ticking all night, I’m riding this under, which is 7-3 between these two teams this season. Let’s win some cash.
Bet: Under 42.5 (-115 at Betway)
Riding with the theme of the under, I’ve found a spot in the Cowboys’ wide receiver corps that could be profitable for us. Michael Gallup has a lot going against him in order to hit his number. One, Rush will have limited chances throughout the night as Dallas continues to feed into its ground game. Two, he’ll be fighting for those limited targets with CeeDee Lamb, who’s averaging double-digit targets on the season while Gallup has just eight through his two games. You may argue that Lamb will draw the gravity of the Philly defense to him, but that secondary is one of the best units in the NFL regardless. Chunk plays through the air have been hard to come by for this offense, and it will get even harder on Sunday night. The Eagles give up just 189 yards passing per game, and will have no issue forcing Rush to beat them. Look for Rush to make his first mistake against this secondary, who are sixth in the league in takeaways with six interceptions to their name. For what it’s worth, a season ago, Gallup went over this number five times in nine games with Prescott under center, with two of those games going over by a combined five yards. This will be a close divisional clash, and will live on the ground. Gallup won’t reach his number as a result. We love sweating out unders together this season, let’s do it again.
Bet: Gallup under 40.5 yards receiving (-112 at Unibet)