After going 2-0 on our Monday Night Football props, we’re jumping right back into the market to start Week 4 off on the right foot, with the Miami Dolphins travelling north to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
The 3-0 Dolphins find themselves on top of the AFC and as they head up to Cincinnati, I cannot wait to fade this defense. Miami needed everything to break its way in order to take down the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and knowing this defense was on the field for 90 plays in 100-degree weather has me salivating at the potential of what the Bengals may be able to do. Pairing their exhausting defensive effort with travelling on a short week should lead to plenty of opportunity for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati has been underwhelming this season but are in a good spot to get going against a defense who is giving up the second-most yards per game this season. This matchup currently sees the Bengals as 4-point favorites, with a total of 47.
Best bets
Burrow hasn’t had a convincing start to the season, which has opened up value for us in this spot with his passing yards total set at 266.5. The Dolphins have given up a combined 718 yards passing over the past two games and are coming off a matchup where they had to defend 63 Josh Allen attempts. This defense has some real weaknesses in the secondary, and although they will be able to get pressure on Burrow, they will not be able to cover his tremendous pass catchers. Even if Xavien Howard is able to stick with Ja’Marr Chase, the options are plentiful for Burrow with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and a due Joe Mixon out of the backfield. I do think this line could be on the move prior to kickoff, but as far as movement goes, I am comfortable playing this up to 274.5. Burrow has surpassed this number in two of three games this season, and I like him to do so again here in prime time.
Joe Burrow over 266.5 passing yards (-114) 1u FanDuel
As I mentioned above, we are taking advantage of this Bengals offense and going with two props on their side of the ball. The Dolphins currently rank 29th in defensive pass DVOA and are giving up 7.63 yards per attempt. This bodes well for all the Bengals pass catchers, but in this specific matchup I am looking at Chase and his longest reception prop, currently set at 24.5 yards.
Chase has yet to catch a pass of 25 or more yards this season, after doing so in 12 different games during his rookie year, but I expect the Bengals to take a few more downfield shots against the Dolphins in this game. I hate to use the word “due” when placing bets, but it’s hard to imagine Chase going four games without a game-breaking play.
When betting a longest reception prop, I like to play overs on players with the potential to surpass the number in various ways. Throughout his young career we have seen Chase take advantage of many different types of routes, with the ability to turn a three-yard pass into a long gain on any given play. I know we are putting all our eggs in one basket here with the Bengals’ passing offense, but we’re getting in early here as I’d expect more money to come in on gameday fading this Dolphins defense, which should result in some good CLV on these bets.
Ja’Marr Chase longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110) 1u DraftKings