Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL - Futures Bets

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL

By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Into the final four weeks of the season, we still have a lot to figure out. Top seed in the Eastern Conference is up for grabs. Races for the Atlantic, Central, and Pacific Divisions are intensifying. There are five teams fighting for one playoff spot in the West, and seven teams fighting for five spots in the East. I feel pretty strongly about who winds up in those playoff spots and I don’t think the market is pricing all the teams involved properly.

A few bets for your Wednesday, courtesy of FanDuel:

Boston Bruins to miss the playoffs -110

There are better prices out there as well if you shop around (plus-money widely available). Of the teams still vying for a playoff spot in the East, the Bruins are unquestionably one of the two worst. They’re likely the worst, and they don’t have the benefit of playing in a weak Metro Division like the Penguins, Islanders, and Blue Jackets, where third place in the division might very well finish the season with less points than the second wild card.

Not only are the Bruins my lowest power-rated team of this group, but they also have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the entire NHL. Of their final 14 games, eight of them are on the road, nine of them are against playoff teams, and none of them are against teams in the league’s clear-cut bottom five. That’s bad news for a group that has been terrible both on the road and against good teams all year. They’re 25-9-1 at home vs. 12-14-7 on the road, and even more importantly, they’ve managed just a 43.2% expected goal share against playoff teams this season, compared to a 50.7% mark against non-playoff teams. That 43.2% share is the sort of figure you’d expect from a lottery team. It’s dreadful and it’s hard to see them doing enough down the stretch to stay in this race. I have them at right around 40% to make the playoffs and you can bet the no at + money in some spots. Seems like good value to me.

Los Angeles Kings to make the playoffs -140

Unlike the Bruins, the -140 on the Kings to make the playoffs at FanDuel is best in market. If you’ve been tuning into Edge Work this season you’ll know the Kings have been a polarizing team on the show. I’ve long been in their corner, while So Money has jumped at every opportunity to disparage this group. At one point I lost faith, myself. But then Jim Hiller was fired. They’re just 4-3-1 since then, but their play has been extremely encouraging. The schedule has been tough – six of those eight games came against teams in a playoff spot on points percentage – and they’ve still managed a 55.9% expected goal share at five-on-five. If you remove the Avs game (their first without Hiller the day after the firing before any real changes had a chance to be instilled) they’ve posted a 59.2% expected goal share and 54.4% Corsi share at five-on-five. The wins are coming, and they’re coming soon when you consider that the Kings have the league’s easiest remaining schedule. Of their remaining 15 games, 11 are against non-playoff teams, nine of them are against teams in the bottom nine in the league in points percentage, and FIVE OF THEM are against the two worst teams in the NHL (3 vs. Canucks, 2 vs. Flames).

As good as things appear to be mapped out for the Kings, this has as much to do with them as it does the teams they’re competing with. The Kraken suck, the Predators suck, and the Sharks aren’t good enough.

Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference +1800

Rick Bowness took over as head coach the Jackets are 16-2-4 with strong underlying numbers – fourth in the NHL in both expected goal share and shots for percentage at five-on-five. They have a legitimate number one goalie in Jet Greaves, and Bowness seems to finally be giving him the reins again after leaning more on Elvis Merzlikins early in his tenure. Greaves currently ranks fifth in GSAA and third in GSAx among goalies on teams currently occupying a playoff spot. They are considerable favorites to finish top three in the Metro Division which will provide them with a much easier first-round matchup, before a likely date with a very vulnerable Hurricanes team in the second round.

I really like how the Jackets match up with Carolina. They’re a lot bigger than the Canes up front, have excellent center depth to help with line matching, have great skaters on the back end to help neutralize the Canes’ forecheck, and possess a considerable edge in net. It’s as good a path to the Conference Finals as one could ask for in a loaded Eastern Conference for a well-constructed roster that’s playing it’s best hockey at the most important time of year. This number is simply too big and while you can find a lot better than the 18-1 currently offered at FanDuel, I’m still content buying all the way down to 15-1.

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