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Fine Margins: Best bets for this weekend's EPL matches

Gianluca Scamacca


West Ham vs. Fulham (Sunday 9 October, 9:00 a.m. ET)

The banker bet landed for the third successive Premier League weekend as Leicester easily defeated Nottingham Forest on Monday night. Let’s see if we can keep that run going. 

Fulham came down to Earth with a real bang against Newcastle last week, in what was their heaviest defeat since returning to the Premier League this summer. 

The deserved red card of Nathaniel Chalobah very early on very much contributed to their demise, but Newcastle still had to get it done and could quite easily have scored more. Indeed, Fulham have been a little fortunate on occasion to take points in matches where the expected goal statistics have been extremely close. 

In fact in only two of their eight matches have they won the xG battle and that type of form can only last so long. And in addition to Chalobah’s suspension, Aleksandar Mitrovic limped off in that defeat and while he’s not completely ruled out yet, he is a serious doubt - it’s worth checking team news before placing your stake. 

West Ham on the other hand were better in attack in the defeat of Wolves last weekend, winning 2-0, and this has been the main concern for their form so far. They are far from matching last season yet, but this team has attacking talent that has been thrown together and will take time to gel; three of last weekend’s front four - Maxwel Cornet, Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta - were all summer arrivals and are beginning to work well. 

We like West Ham to keep their momentum going and record a second home win on the bounce, at odds which will likely be shorter in equivalent matches later in the season. 

Pick: West Ham to win @ -130 (Draft Kings)


Everton vs. Man Utd (Sunday 9 October 2:00 p.m. ET)

We are 3/3 on the bet builder so for this season in the Premier League as Arsenal saw off Tottenham in a game that saw over two goals as well. Let’s look to Goodison Park on Sunday night for our next offering.

Did we underestimate Manchester City last weekend, or overestimate Manchester United? Perhaps a bit of both but it’s fair to say the long shot was indeed very, very, long, and United were handed a pretty comprehensive defeat. 

They looked as far away as ever from being a legitimate Premier League challenger in that match and though City is obviously wonderful, United made it all too easy for them. So we don’t think they should be enjoying a trip to the best defense in the Premier League - Frank Lampard’s Everton. 

It’s quite the feat that Lampard has managed to turn the team that conceded 66 Premier League goals last season - the fifth worst in the division - into the meanest defense and he should be given immense credit for that. The signings of Conor Coady and James Tarkowski have gone a long way to stabilizing things. 

Everton have only conceded seven goals all season, and just four in their six-game unbeaten run that they are currently on. There’s definite signs of positivity, particularly when they play at Goodison Park and United’s record there isn’t exactly stellar; they have won just one of their last four visits, which includes a 1-0 defeat towards the end of last season. 

So we’d like to not only oppose Man Utd here, but also goals. With Everton’s defensive record and United’s inability to score on the road - prior to their consolation goals against City, they had scored just twice away from home - taking Lampard’s side on the double chance plus an unders goal market looks like a sensible play. 

Oh - and as we highlighted last week, United are one of the most yellow-carded teams in the league. Throw in over 0 cards as well for a nice builder. 

Pick: Everton/Draw double chance, under 4 goals, and over 0 United cards @ +150 (Bet365)


Arsenal vs. Liverpool (Sunday 9 October, 11:30 a.m. ET)

This is such an exciting encounter that predicting what can happen could lead to some small-stake fun in a game which is hard to call, but we hope should feature plenty of goals.

What do we know? Firstly, Liverpool are incapable of defending at the moment. They conceded three to Brighton last time out, and it could have been more. They conceded four to Napoli before that in the Champions League, while they also conceded to Fulham and Manchester United (twice) and Newcastle. 

This is a team not to be trusted defensively, but they continue to deliver the goods from an offensive standpoint. They have netted 18 in the league against a fourth-highest expected goals total of 13.9, and their challengers, Arsenal, are second in that list. The Gunners are flying but have also conceded in every home league match this season. You know where we are going with this - we want to get goals onside in a big way. 

Arsenal have scored over one goal in all but one games this season (8/9) in all competitions, and every game at home (4/4).

Liverpool meanwhile haven’t been prolific on a game-by-game basis, scoring over one goal in 7/11 matches, but it’s still a healthy return, particularly given Jurgen Klopp set up with effectively four strikers in the win over Rangers in the Champions League, and might well do so again. 

If we combine those selections we get a more than decent +300, because this game could very likely be any score. 

And if you want to dabble in the correct score market at MUCH longer odds, maybe have a sniff at 3-3 at a whopping +4000 and sit down and wait for it to rain. 

Good luck!

Pick: Arsenal and Liverpool over one team goal each @ +300 (Bet365)