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Fine Margins: Best bets for UCL Matchday 4



Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla (Tuesday 11 October 1500 ET)

Chelsea landed our Champions League banker bet last time out and we’re going to look at another team to land a home win in Tuesday’s matches. 

Sevilla are, quite simply, a mess at the moment. Coach Julen Lopetegui was fired after their 4-1 humbling at home to Dortmund last time out and it’s been a horrible year for the Spanish side in general. They’ve won once all season, back at the beginning of September when triumphing away at Espanyol, and they’ve taken some heavy defeats along the way. Of course they lost their two first-choice central defenders from last season - Diego Carlos and Jules Kounde - and they just can’t keep a clean sheet. 

Dortmund meanwhile will be on a massive high after coming from 2-0 down to grab a point against Bayern Munich on Saturday in their big Bundesliga clash, an injury-time Anthony Modeste header getting it done. They are a little flaky themselves, Dortmund, but Sevilla have no problems to seek and this match just isn’t coming at the right time, particularly with new boss Jorge Sampaoli only just installed. 

Dortmund know that a win seals knockout qualification and will mean resting stars in the remaining two matches. It’s a short price, but we think the Germans are a pretty sure thing. 

Pick: Dortmund to win @ -185 (MGM)


Barcelona vs. Inter (Wednesday 12 October, 1500 ET)

This is now a must-win match for Barcelona after their loss away to Inter last week in San Siro. 

The Spanish giants had most of the chances and most of the ball in that particular encounter, and were certainly unfortunate to have a goal chopped off, while not being awarded a penalty for what seemed like a pretty clear handball. 

Barcelona’s form is objectively better than Inter’s this season, who are struggling domestically, having lost to both Udinese and Roma of late, putting them way off the pace at the top of the table. Barcelona, meanwhile, top the table in Spain and seem to be getting someway back to being a dangerous team again. 

We’re thoroughly convinced that Barcelona will do what needs to be done here, and in some style. Take them to win and to score over one goal while doing it. Also add in them to be winning at half time and at full time to give us a nice selection. 

Bet: Barcelona to win, over one Barcelona goal, and Barcelona half time/full time @ +137 (Bet365)


There are a few matches which could go a long way to deciding the outcome of some of these groups and as our long shot we want to take a few matches to have both teams scoring. 

Celtic vs. RB Leipzig last time out was an entertaining match in Germany, one in which both sides scored and the overall total could have been much higher. Celtic have the attacking talent to score again, but are missing captain Callum McGregor through injury and so Leipzig will fancy their chances to score, too. 

Ajax vs. Napoli was another interesting, if one-sided, matchup last time out in Amsterdam and it’s a bit of a mini-crisis at the Dutch giants, though they did get back on track with a 4-2 win in the Eredivisie this weekend. Napoli are Europe's form team but as much as they enjoy winning, they are not particularly great at not conceding - a goal has gone in against them in their last four matches. 

And finally Milan drastically underperformed last time out against Chelsea and will be looking to right a few wrongs in the return match. They have the attacking talent to score, while Chelsea look improved under Graham Potter and are more than capable of scoring themselves. 

Select all three to have both teams to score, and we have a nice long shot parlay to enjoy the goals going in. 

Good luck!

Bet: Both teams to score in Celtic vs. RB Leipzig, Ajax vs. Napoli, and Milan vs. Chelsea @ +305 (Bet365)