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Fine Margins: Champions League MD2 player props

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Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund (Wednesday)

Erling Haaland will be like a coiled spring. Denied the chance to play at the weekend due to the Premier League postponements following the death of the Queen, he will be ready to pounce on his vulnerable former team Borussia Dortmund. 

Dortmund’s defensive frailties were on show once again at the weekend as RB Leipzig took them for three goals, just as Werder Bremen did last month. Neither of those sides have a player like Haaland, who knows this unit intimately and it’s simply written that the Norwegian will net against his ex-teammates.. 

As far as the betting market goes, it all depends on the odds you’d like to select, but him to net anytime at -200, while being a little skinny, does seem like an eminently sure thing. There’s only one match this season in which he didn’t score - against Bournemouth at home. If he keeps up his current record per 90 minutes, he’ll score 68 goals this season - just in the Premier League. The man is a monster, the penalty box his domain, and it’s the only place he wants to be. 

He obviously won’t keep this up, but this one seems set up for him. There’s also value in the first goal, and also in Haaland to net two or more. If you’re brave, all three have value. 

Bet: Haaland to score any time (-200, Bet365)

Potential add-ons: 

  • Haaland to score first (+220, Bet365)
  • Haaland to score two or more (+200, Bet365)


Liverpool vs. Ajax (Tuesday)

Is it safe to place a wager on Liverpool at the moment? Probably not. Jurgen Klopp’s side are enduring one of their most difficult spells in some time, with the 4-1 thumping at the hands of Napoli last time out the type of result that led the German to wonder if Liverpool need to ‘reinvent’ themselves. 

Well, with the weekend fixtures in England canceled, they’ve had a week to percolate on that loss and look to reply. In an interesting group, the Reds won’t want to be scrambling around for points and so a win at home to a confident Ajax side has to be of paramount importance. 

But rather than focus on the result, let’s look at one of Liverpool’s few shining lights this season; Luis Diaz. The Colombian has settled well into the side and is also finding his feet in front of goal; he has struck four goals in his last six games, and has struck two shots on target or more in three of his last four outings. 

Diaz likes a shot, and is full of confidence whereas others, such as Mo Salah, may be lacking in that department. He will almost certainly start the match and we would like to back him to have over 1.5 shots on target at +150.

If you’d like to add a little extra mustard, select him in a bet builder to score any time as well at +275.

Pick: Luis Diaz over 1.5 shots on target (+150, Bet365)


Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona (Tuesday)

In a similar vein to Haaland taking on former employers, a certain Robert Lewandowski heads back to Germany on Tuesday looking to put one over the club he scored so many goals for over the years. 

Lewandowski has made a spectacular start to life in Spain - his goal record in his last five matches reads two, two, one, three, one. And in fact the victory over Cadiz at the weekend was the only match in which he has hit less than four shots on goal. 

Bayern, after a completely dominant start, have been shaky defensively of late and have drawn their last three Bundesliga matches, including conceding two to Stuttgart on the weekend. Dayot Upamecano and Matthijs De Ligt don’t look like a pairing yet and therefore we’d fancy Lewy to get the better of them.

Bayern’s home record in the Champions League is daunting, so we wouldn’t advise covering Barcelona to win the match, but at a decent odds selection, Lewandowski to score first at +460 is the narrative play for this match. 

Pick: Lewandowski to score first (+460, Unibet)