Hammer Wednesday - Championship Weekend - Injury Reports, NHL Thoughts and +EV Player Props

Injury Reports for Championship Weekend as of Wednesday Evening
***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. 

New England at Denver
New England - OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, EDGE Harold Landry DNP, LB Christian Ellis Limited, CB Carlton Davis Limited, RB Terrell Jennings Full (Working back from I.R.), DT Joshua Farmer Full (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant Limited, WR Troy Franklin Limited, C Alex Forsyth Limited, RB J.K. Dobbins Limited (Working back from I.R.), C Luke Wattenberg Full (Working back from I.R.), LB Drew Sanders Full (Working back from I.R.)

L.A. Rams at Seattle
L.A. Rams - EDGE Byron Young DNP, CB Emmanuel Forbes Limited
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold Limited, OT Charles Cross DNP, OT Josh Jones DNP, OT Amari Knight DNP, EDGE Uchenna Nwosu Limited
 

________________________________________

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) The current run each Atlantic Division team is on, with extremely arbitrary cutoffs for each of them:

Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-0-1
Detroit Red Wings: 11-3-1
Montreal Canadiens: 11-3-3
Buffalo Sabres: 16-3-1
Boston Bruins: 8-2-0
Toronto Maple Leafs: 9-2-3
Florida Panthers: 13-8-1
Ottawa Senators: 5-6-3

2.) It’s getting late early for the Panthers. They’re playing at a 100-point pace in their last 22 games and have lost considerable ground in the race. It’s wild what’s going on in the Atlantic this year. Florida desperately needs to get healthy because there’s a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do it. Matthew Tkachuk is back and Brad Marchand is close, but Seth Jones has just been ruled out until after the Olympic break. It’s actually insane that Marchand has played 51 and Jones 61 regular season games with the Panthers, but Tkachuk has yet to play a regular season game with either. It looks like a minimum of 95 points will be required to secure a wild card berth this year. To reach that, the Panthers will have to play at close to a 102-point pace the rest of the way – certainly doable, but with every loss the margin for error shrinks. I also think the current projected cutoff of 95 points for a wild card spot will climb over the coming weeks as we begin to see some more separation between the contenders and pretenders.

3.) I wanted to take a closer look at a couple of these other Atlantic teams, starting with the Wings. They haven’t been too impressive over this 15-game run (11-3-1), but their overall season numbers are fine and don’t scream major regression. What does scream regression, though, is their injury luck. They’ve been the healthiest team in the NHL this season. Their top four defensemen have missed a combined three games, and their top-nine forwards have missed a combined 26 (Patrick Kane 15, James Van Riemsdyk 9, Lucas Raymond 2, Marco Kasper 1). Of their top 12 players in time on ice per game, just one of them (Kane) has missed more than three games. It’s been a massive reason behind their success this season.

4.) Amidst their 16-3-1 run, the Sabres are 22nd in expected goal share and third in actual goal share at five-on-five. They are 24th in shot attempt share, but second in PDO. Of those 16 wins, just six of them have come against teams currently in a playoff spot (EDM, NYI, BOS, DAL, ANA, MTL). It’s great to see that fanbase taste some success after years of disappointment, I’m just not sure how sustainable it all is. Losing Josh Norris really hurts, too. He’s missed the last four games and is likely to miss the next eight before the Olympic break as well. In these last four games without him they’ve posted a 40% expected goal share at five-on-five. I think these next eight games will basically determine whether or not they will be a playoff time come the end of the season. Of those eight games, six are against teams they’re directly competing with for a playoff spot (Canadiens twice, Islanders, Leafs, Panthers, Penguins).

5.) Remember when Ryan Warofsky said “I’d give up one of my children for a fucking win,” after the Sharks started 0-4-2? They’re 11th in the NHL in points percentage since then. The underlying metrics are ugly, but what a job he’s done with this group. He’s not going to win the Jack Adams in all likelihood, but there’s no way he should have longer odds right now than Lindy Ruff, Joel Quenneville, or Todd McLellan – all of whom have done a great job this season, but have much more at their disposal.

6.) My Jack Adams vote right now would go to Jon Cooper (+490) over Jared Bednar (-115). Obviously the Avalanche have been unbelievable this year, but Nathan MacKinnon is probably going to win the Hart and Cale Makar is going to win the Norris. They’ve also been blessed with great health this season. Of their top 16 players in time on ice per game, 12 of them have played in all 47 games. The other four have combined to miss just 37 games – Toews (7), Nichushkin (9), Girard (15), Landeskog (6). The Lightning would kill for anything close to that sort of health.

Here’s the list of important Lightning players who have missed time this season (and how many games):

Victor Hedman (30)
Ryan McDonagh (30)
Erik Cernak (19)
Nick Paul (19)
Emil Lilleberg (16)
Brayden Point (11)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (7)
Charle-Edouard D’Astous (7)
Pontus Holmberg (7)
Darren Raddysh (6)
Zemgus Girgensons (6)
Brandon Hagel (5)
Anthony Cirelli (4)
Nikita Kucherov (4)
JJ Moser (2)

It’s a miracle the Lightning are first in the East and only 10 points back of the league-leading Avalanche, and they’re doing it in a stronger conference against a tougher schedule. Coop should finally win his first Jack Adams this year.

7.) Injured players I’m watching who will (or at least could) return at some point before the Olympic break:

ANA: Troy Terry (no clear timetable, could be back at any point here)
BOS: None
BUF: Josh Norris (week-to-week, unlikely back before Olympics, but possible he is)
CGY: Blake Coleman (day-to-day)
CAR: Shayne Gostisbehere (day-to-day)
CHI: Frank Nazar (could return Thursday), Andre Burakovsky (day-to-day, illness and family matter), Teuvo Teravainen (no clear update, assumed to be day-to-day)
COL: Valeri Nichushkin (expected back tonight), Devon Toews (could return as early as this weekend), Gabriel Landeskog (“a ways out” still as of today, but initial timeline suggests he should be back still before the break)
CBJ: Mason Marchment (skating, but “a couple weeks away”), Denton Mateychuk (nearing return)
DAL: Mikko Rantanen (day-to-day, illness), Lian Bichsel (skating, through seven weeks of initial 6-8 week timeline)
EDM: Leon Draisaitl (expected back later this week), Kasperi Kapanen (“out a week” as of Tuesday)
FLA: Brad Marchand (nearing return)
LAK: Drew Doughty (day-to-day, illness), Anze Kopitar (nearing return), Trevor Moore (nearing return), Darcy Kuemper (day-to-day)
MIN: Matt Boldy (should be back next week), Joel Eriksson Ek (nearing return), Marcus Johansson (nearing return)
MTL: Patrik Laine (nearing return), Alexandre Texier (day-to-day)
NSH: None
NJD: Luke Hughes (dislocated shoulder, timeline unclear)
NYI: Bo Horvat (could be back Saturday)
NYR: None
OTT: Linus Ullmark (could return at any point, not sure that he will though)
PHI: Dan Vladar (nearing return)
PIT: Erik Karlsson (nearing return)
SJS: None
SEA: None
STL: Robert Thomas (could be back by end of next week), Oskar Sundqvist (no clear timeline with deep cut on ankle), Mathieu Joseph (day-to-day)
TBL: Victor Hedman (still expected back before Olympics), Ryan McDonagh (getting closer), Brayden Point (no update, still not ruled out for Olympics), Anthony Cirelli (not expected to miss any time)
TOR: William Nylander (no timeline, not expected to be a long absence), Anthony Stolarz (on conditioning stint, back shortly)
UTA: None
VAN: Marco Rossi (another 2-3 weeks, very unlikely he will play before break but not ruled out)
VGK: None
WSH: Tom Wilson (has been day-to-day over two weeks now, should be back soon)
WPG: Neal Pionk (still week-to-week, no clear timeline)

________________________________________

Player Props to Watch – Prediction Markets Enter the Board



One of the biggest upgrades to Betstamp PRO is the addition of Kalshi prediction market odds directly into the prop screen — meaning you can now see how prediction markets and sportsbooks are pricing the same outcomes side by side.

A great example is RJ Harvey’s rushing yards (NE @ DEN). Traditional books are mostly clustered around 42.5 yards, while Kalshi is trading 49.5 — nearly a full touchdown of separation in the underlying expectation. That’s not noise. That’s two different markets expressing two very different opinions.

Looking at the Kalshi orderbook and line history, the Under 49.5 has been consistently bid, while the sports betting market never followed the move up. In other words, the prediction market is implying a materially higher median outcome than sportsbooks are willing to hang — and Betstamp PRO now lets you see that disagreement instantly, in the same screen.

This is the real value of integrating prediction markets: you’re no longer just comparing book vs book. You’re comparing sportsbooks vs prediction markets — two completely different liquidity pools, two different types of participants, and often two different opinions about the same player.

Get the Betstamp PRO Props screen 50% off TODAY.

Lines subject to change.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD



PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Betstamp PRO Props 50% Off 
Win more player props at scale with true market pricing across 200+ feeds, alt lines, and every major sport. Stop guessing. Start betting with real market data. APPLY NOW.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com