Hammer Wednesday - Week 15 NFL - Injury Reports, Circa Million Superteam Results and Unique Data

Circa Million Superteam Update



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Injury Reports for Week 15 as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (Thursday Nighter)
Atlanta - WR Drake London Out, TE Kyle Pitts Questionable, EDGE Jalon Walker Questionable, DT David Onyemata Questionable, DT Brandon Dorlus Questionable
Tampa Bay - TE Cade Otton Doubtful, LB SirVocea Dennis Out, S Tykee Smith Doubtful, WR Mike Evans Questionable (Working back from I.R.), WR Jalen McMillan Questionable (Working back from I.R.)

Washington at New York Giants
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels Out, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. DNP, LB Bobby Wagner DNP, CB Jonathan Jones DNP
New York Giants - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux DNP, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches DNP, TE Theo Johnson Limited, OG Greg Van Roten DNP, CB Art Green Full (Working back from I.R), LB Darius Muasau Full (Working back from I.R.)

Las Vegas at Philadelphia
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith DNP, WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. Limited, TE Michael Mayer Limited, TE Ian Thomas DNP, EDGE Maxx Crosby DNP, S Jeremy Chinn DNP, OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson DNP, DT Jalen Carter DNP, OG Landon Dickerson Limited     

Cleveland at Chicago
Cleveland - OT Jack Conklin DNP, OG Wyatt Teller Out, OG Joel Bitonio DNP, RB Dylan Sampson DNP, WR Cedric Tillman DNP, TE David Njoku DNP, DT Mason Graham DNP, EDGE Adin Huntington DNP, LB Carson Schwesinger Limited, CB Denzel Ward DNP, CB Tyson Campbell Limited, S Grant Delpit DNP, QB Deshaun Watson Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR Olimade Zaccheaus Limited, CB Kyler Gordon DNP, CB Tyrique Stevenson Limited, LB Ruben Hyppolite II Full

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Baltimore - RB Keaton Mitchell Limited, CB Chidobe Awuzie DNP, CB Nate Higgins Limited, EDGE Tavius Robinson Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Cincinnati - WR Tee Higgins Limited, EDGE Shemar Stewart Full (Working back from I.R.)

Arizona at Houston
Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. DNP, WR Xavier Weaver DNP, RB Emari Demercado Limited, OT Paris Johnson Jr. Out, OG Evan Brown DNP/Personal, DT Walter Nolen Limited, DT Bilal Nichols DNP, CB Max Melton Limited, S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson DNP, S Jalen Thompson DNP
Houston - RB Nick Chubb DNP, RB Woody Marks DNP, OT Trent Brown DNP, LB Azeez Al-Shaair DNP, CB Kamari Lassiter DNP

Buffalo at New England 
Buffalo - OT Spencer Brown Limited, WR Josh Palmer Limited, EDGE Joey Bosa Limited, LB Terrel Bernard Limited
New England - OT Vederian Lowe Limited, OG Jared Wilson Full, RB Terrell Jennings DNP, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, DT Khyiris Tonga Full

New York Jets at Jacksonville
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor DNP, QB Justin Fields DNP, RB Breece Hall DNP, TE Mason Taylor DNP, LB Quincy Williams DNP, LB Francisco Mauigoa DNP, CB Azareye'h Thomas DNP, S Tony Adams Full
Jacksonville - QB Trevor Lawrence Limited, WR Parker Washington Limited, OT Walker Little Limited, OG Ezra Cleveland Limited, S Andrew Wingard Limited

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City
L.A. Chargers - QB Justin Herbert Limited, WR Ladd McConkey Limited, OT Trey Pipkins DNP, LB Troy Dye DNP
Kansas City - OG Trey Smith Full, OT Jawaan Taylor DNP, CB Trent McDuffie Limited

Indianapolis at Seattle
Indianapolis - QB Riley Leonard Full, OT Braden Smith DNP, CB Sauce Gardner DNP, EDGE Tyquan Lewis DNP, DT DeForest Buckner Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - TE Elijah Arroyo DNP, DT Jarran Reed Limited, S Julian Love Limited, S Ty Okada Limited, C Jalen Sundell Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Tennessee at San Francisco
Tennessee - C Lloyd Cushenberry III Limited, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis Limited
San Francisco - EDGE Sam Okuayinonu DNP, LB Tatum Bethune DNP, LB Nick Martin DNP, K Eddy Pineiro Full, FB Kyle Juszczyk Limited

Green Bay at Denver
Green Bay - RB Josh Jacbos DNP, WR Jayden Reed Limited, WR Matthew Golden Limited, WR Dontayvion Wicks Limited, OT Zach Tom Limited, EDGE Lukas Van Ness Limited, EDGE Kingsley Enagbare Limited, S Javon Bullard Limited, RB MarShawn Lloyd Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Denver - DT D.J. Jones Full, OG Ben Powers Limited (Working back from I.R.)        

Carolina at New Orleans
Carolina - CB Jaycee Horn Limited, LB Christian Rozeboom Full, LB Claudin Cherelus Limited, C Cade Mays Full
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara DNP, RB Devin Neal Limited, OT Taliese Fuaga DNP, OT Asim Richards DNP, S Justin Reid DNP

Detroit at L.A. Rams
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph Limited, S Thomas Harper Limited, WR Kalif Raymond Limited, TE Shane Zylstra Limited, OT Taylor Decker DNP, OG Kayode Awosika Limited, OG Christian Mahogany Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
L.A. Rams - WR Davante Adams DNP, EDGE Byron Young Limited, CB Darious Williams Full, WR Tutu Atwell Full (Working back from I.R.)    

Minnesota at Dallas (Sunday Nighter)
Minnesota - RB Aaron Jones Sr. Limited, WR Jordan Addison Limited, TE T.J. Hockenson DNP, OT Christian Darrisaw DNP, OG Donovan Jackson Limited, S Theo Jackson Limited
Dallas - WR CeeDee Lamb Limited, OT Tyler Guyton DNP, TE Jake Fergusson Limited, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney Limited, S Donovan Wilson Limited, FB Hunter Luepke Limited, CB Trevon Diggs Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Miami at Pittsburgh (Monday Nighter)
Miami - RB De'Von Achane, LB Tyrel Dodson
Pittsburgh - TE Darnell Washington, OT Calvin Anderson Out, OT Andrus Peat, DT Derrick Harmon, S Kyle Dugger

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Player Props to Watch – ATL @ TB (TNF)



This week gives us our first real look at Tampa Bay’s passing offence with Mike Evans potentially returning after a six-game absence and all three of Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka active together. Any time a high-volume receiver returns to a lineup, books have to reprice target distribution — and that creates opportunity before markets settle.

Right now, the prop board shows fragmentation across the entire WR group. Godwin’s receiving yards sit between 39.5 and 43.5, with sharp books leaning lower while slower books like Draftkings hanging mid-40s numbers. Egbuka’s line shows a similar split, ranging from 43.5 to 48.5, with sharper books again shading over while recreational books deal lower yardage. That spread alone tells you the market hasn’t agreed on what Evans’ return does to secondary target volume.

Meanwhile, Mike Evans’ props are the most volatile of the group. His receiving yards range from 43.5 to 49.5, and his receptions market is being priced more cautiously, suggesting books are uncertain whether he walks back into a full snap share or a rotational role. But his touchdown market — +150 to +200 — shows they expect endzone targets for the big-bodied WR.

This is the kind of uncertainty that creates value: three receivers fighting for volume in a restructured offence, with books disagreeing on who loses work and by how much. When the sharper operators cluster on one side of the board, and everyone else lags behind, that’s where the edge typically lies. Keep track of the injury report leading into this one, as lines will shift once game statuses become clear. 

Hammer readers can get priority access to demo the Props Screen here: Betstamp.com/hammer 

Lines subject to change. Knowing which books move first can be the difference between finding value — and chasing it. 

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FTN Stats Edge

If you want access to numbers like these and FAR more stuff, check out FTNFantasy.com and use HAMMER10 for 10% off.
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Martin St. Louis, Kent Hughes, and Jeff Gorton watched on Tuesday as Jakub Dobes allowed three goals on Tampa’s first 12 shots, then proceeded to watch Sam Montembault let in three goals on the first 10 shots he faced in relief. It came two nights after Dobes allowed three goals on the Blues’ first six shots in a game the Canadiens dominated before another disastrous goaltending effort took the wind out of their sails. It’s been a theme for the Habs all season. Montembault has been unable to find the form that saw him rank fifth among all NHL goalies in goals saved above expected over the last three seasons combined (behind Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark, and Igor Shesterkin). He’s posted a minus-7.1 GSAx this season in 15 appearances, which, coupled with Dobes’ hot start – 10.28 goals saved above expected in his first five starts – saw him surrender the starting job. It hasn’t been a smooth passing of the torch, however, as Dobes has posted a minus-8.81 GSAx in 12 appearances since, culminating in a miserable two-game stretch this week. It was the last straw for the Habs brass who, before the team could even get their equipment off following Tuesday’s 6-1 loss to Tampa, called up top goaltending prospect Jacob Fowler.

I wouldn’t call it a panicked move, but it does come out of an abundance of frustration and desperation. This is a hockey team that has managed to fight and claw to remain in the thick of the playoff picture despite miserable goaltending. The players deserve better and that’s what management is trying to provide. Fowler is an elite goaltending prospect – the consensus top goalie prospect in the league – but expecting immediate success in the NHL at the ripe age of 21 (he just celebrated his 21st birthday two weeks ago) will likely leave the Canadiens disappointed.

If he starts on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fowler will be 21 years and 17 days old. Here’s how that compares to other recent highly regarded goaltending prospects in their NHL debuts (excluding KHL goalies who obviously were later arrivals):

-Spencer Knight (20 years, 1 day)
-Carter Hart (20 years, 4 months, 5 days)
-Yaroslav Askarov (20 years, 6 months, 27 days)
-Jacob Fowler (21 years, 17 days)
-Jesper Wallstedt (21 years, 1 month, 27 days)
-Lukas Dostal (21 years, 6 months, 18 days)
-Dustin Wolf (21 years, 11 months, 27 days)
-Mackenzie Blackwood (22 years, 9 days)
-Jake Oettinger (22 years, 1 month, 10 days)
-Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (22 years, 1 month, 14 days)
-Thatcher Demko (22 years, 3 months, 23 days)

Of the goalies to debut before or around their 21st birthday, none of them really stuck. Knight, also out of Boston College, arrived straight to the NHL from the NCAA, playing four games at the end of the 2020-21 season. He settled into a backup role the following year with mediocre results, though did play a handful of AHL games in each of the next two seasons. Hart was a bit of a unicorn who never looked back after bursting onto the scene in 2018. He posted strong results in his first two seasons but hit a wall in year three before getting injured. Wallstedt and Askarov were used sparingly, appearing in just five and three games respectively in their first wo seasons, largely remaining in the AHL after their initial callups. Of all the names on the above list, none of them truly found success in their first tastes of NHL action:



Fowler will likely experience similar results, but that’s fine – he’s barely 21 and has just 18 games of pro experience. The Canadiens need to be patient. Almost all of these guys are now knocking on the door of the elite tier of NHL goalies, and Fowler’s early AHL numbers, albeit in a small 18-game sample, are better than everyone on the list. His career NCAA save percentage dwarfs that of Demko, Oettinger, Knight, and Jeremy Swayman. His potential is tantalizing, but he’s very likely not the answer for the Habs just yet.

The answer now is the same as it was at the start of the season: Montembault.

As miserable as he was to start the season – a minus-7.64 GSAx in his first six starts – he’s weathered the worst of the storm. In eight starts since, he’s posted a 1.74 GSAx. Great? No. Respectable? Yes. The reason he hasn’t taken back the reigns is he’s been too erratic. In those eight starts he’s been pulled twice, but he’s also posted two “steals”. It’s also not anything he hasn’t been through before. Early last season he went through a nine-start stretch where he went 1-8 with a minus-8.67 GSAx. They didn’t have another option to turn to with Cayden Primeau virtually unplayable as a backup, so they let Monty ride it out. In fact, they leaned on him even harder. He started the next six games and went 3-2-1 with a 2.9 GSAx. Modest numbers, but he got back on track and went on to finish third in the NHL with a 31.2 GSAx. Water always finds its level. The Canadiens getting so shaken this time around speaks to the growing expectations in the building, but these things can’t be rushed. They got to this point by staying the course – this isn’t the time to deviate.

I believe one of the biggest reasons he hasn’t been able to get fully back on track is they simply haven’t afforded him the opportunity. He’s started just seven of their last 17 games. It’s hard to get into any sort of rhythm when you’re playing so sparingly. He needs to be afforded the runway to get that confidence back. I don’t think Montembault is anything special, but he’s a lot better than he’s shown this season and you don’t put up the numbers he has over the past three years by accident. The Habs play 10 games between now and 2026 – he should start eight of them. Let Fowler play the back-to-backs, if the goal is to give Dobes a rest following the busiest stretch of his NHL career. If you afford Montembault that opportunity and he doesn’t deliver, you have your answer. Sure, you run the risk of him stumbling through it and falling out of the playoff picture, but it’s not like the alternatives offer any guarantees. 

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