If I hit this underdog bet this week, there’s no “maybe” about it, I will officially be the Underdog King.
I gave you the Giants to beat the Titans in Week 1 at +205. Winner. I gave you the Jets to beat the Browns at +210 in Week 2. Winner. I gave you the Panthers to upset the Saints last week. Winner.
As awesome as those wins were, this is going to be my greatest masterpiece to date. I’m going to improve to 4-0 on my weekly upset picks with a banger.
Are you ready for it?
Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars to upset the darling of the NFL, the Philadelphia Eagles, at +235.
Jaguars +235 vs. Eagles
It may be a dumb and simplistic approach to betting on the NFL, but it has seemed to work for me over the past couple of years. You need to sell high on some teams, and buy low on others.
And what team is a better sell high candidate this week than the Eagles?
They’ve looked fantastic through the first three weeks of the season. They’re crushing their opponents, Jalen Hurts looks like a legitimate MVP candidate, what could go wrong? In my opinion, a lot of things.
Let’s not forget that the three teams they’ve beat this season, the Lions, Vikings, and Commanders, went a combined 18-32 last season, and none of the three had winning seasons. I’m happy for Eagles fans that they have a good team to cheer for this year, but let’s pump the brakes on crowning them NFC champions in Week 4.
In come the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are leading the AFC South at 2-1. They aren’t exactly top tier competition either, but they’re a much improved unit from 2021. They also have wins against the Colts and Chargers, two teams you could argue are better than any of the three the Eagles have faced.
One of the most promising signs for Jacksonville is its pass protection.
Heading into Sunday, the Jaguars sport the lowest QB sacked percentage in the NFL, allowing a sack on just 1.77% of Trevor Lawrence drop backs. If they continue to give him time to throw, he’s going to find open receivers.
Meanwhile, the biggest strength of their defense is in the red zone. The Jaguars allow their opponents to score a touchdown on only 42.86% of their red zone trips, which is the sixth best mark in the NFL. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 17th in that stat.
I’ll be the first to admit that this might be a heat check of sorts, but I love selling high on teams, and the praise for the Eagles is getting a little out of hand.
Be sure to head over to BetSided to see the rest of my plays for this weekend’s NFL slate.