For the second straight week, my NFL upset pick of the week loses on a last-second field goal. In Week 5, it was the Bengals who fell to the Ravens on a Justin Tucker kick. This past week, the Broncos lost as +205 underdogs in overtime to the Chargers after a muffed punt.
The good news is we’re still profitable at 3-3, but it’s time to get a notch in the win column.
I’m staying a little bit more conservative with this week’s upset pick.
Give me the Indianapolis Colts to get their revenge against the Tennessee Titans.
Colts +125 vs. Titans
First of all, let’s address the Colts loss to the Titans in Week 4.
The final score was 24-17, but the story of the game was very different from what the scoreboard would lead you to believe. The Colts outgained the Titans in that game, 5.8 yards per play to 4.7 yards per play.
Indianapolis dominated them in every aspect of the game, except for one: Turnovers. The Colts coughed up the ball three times, with most of them coming when they were in scoring position. Take away those turnovers and a few other key games, and the Colts would’ve walked away with the win.
Next, let’s talk about how truly horrible this Titans team is. Sure, they’re 3-2 and in first place in the division, but make no mistake about it, they stink.
That notion is clear when you look at the statistic called “net yards per play”, which takes the amount of yards per play on offense, and subtracts the amount of yards given up per play on defense. The Titans heading into Week 7 rank dead last in the NFL in that area. Their net yards per play is -1.4, which is -0.5 worse than the next worst team, who are the Steelers at -0.9.
The Colts are sitting at -0.2 yards per play. Still not great, but a heck of a lot better than the Titans.
A big part of Tennessee’s issues is their insistence on running the football, but their inability to do it effectively. They run the ball on 49.65% of their plays, which is the fifth highest rate in the NFL, yet they only gain 3.7 yards per rush, which ranks 27th in the league. That’s not a winning strategy, I don’t care who you have in the backfield.
Indianapolis may have had a rough start to its season, but the Colts are starting to warm up and they’ll avenge their Week 4 loss on Sunday. I’ll gladly back them at +125 in Tennessee, and we’ll cruise to another notch in the win column.
Be sure to head over to BetSided to see the rest of my plays for this weekend’s NFL slate.