I’m not sure why we have a Week 2 doubleheader on Monday Night Football, but I can assure you I’m not complaining. To open the night, the Buffalo Bills are playing host to the Tennessee Titans as 10-point favorites. Early returns on the Bills are strong as they appear to have the best roster in the league and will have an electric crowd for their home opener tonight. In the later game, we have a fantastic matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, which features the Eagles as short home favorites. As we head into these games, the prop market provides some strong options, so let’s dive into the best spots on this two-game slate.
Titans @ Bills best bet
The Bills are going to score a lot of points this season. That may not be news to any of you, but when you look into the anytime touchdown props, there are a ton of value spots on this offense. In tonight’s matchup, the Bills’ team total is 29.5, which implies they are expected to score around four touchdowns. Over at BetMGM, Devin Singletary has +140 odds to get into the endzone, and I am grabbing that for a unit.
In Week 1 against the Rams, the Bills went with a more balanced share between Singletary and Zack Moss than expected. Singletary saw 34 snaps, which included 18 routes, while Moss saw 22 snaps, including 14 routes. The temperature in Los Angeles may have played a factor in this split as we saw Singletary ask out of the game on a few occasions to grab a breather. Rookie running back James Cook fumbled on his first carry and may not be trusted by the Bills’ coaching staff just yet, which opens up more touches for the Bills’ top rusher. Back to tonight, I expect Singletary to have a more extensive workload, and for a guy who is the top running back in an offense that may be without touchdown machine Gabe Davis, look for Singletary to be used early and often, as both a running and receiving threat.
Bet: Devin Singletary anytime touchdown scorer +140 (BetMGM)
Vikings @ Eagles best bet
The second game of the evening features two teams coming off of Week 1 wins in which the offenses looked to be strong. The Eagles put up 38 points against the Lions, while the Vikings were able to control the Packers from start to finish. When looking into the receiving yards market, one player stuck out to me over the rest and that is Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert played 71 of the Eagles’ 77 offensive snaps a week ago, and he has established himself as one of Jalen Hurts’ primary targets. Although only catching three balls against the Lions, he turned those grabs into 60 yards.
Against this Vikings defense, I like both the game script and the matchup. The Vikings were 15th in DVOA defending the tight end a year ago, which is middle of the pack. Last year is last year, but in Week 1 we saw some similar results where Packers tight ends hauled in six receptions for 67 yards. To say I like Goedert’s ability a lot more than what Robert Tonyan offers is certainly an understatement, and I do think Goedert is a much better threat than anyone in that Packers tight end room.
When betting a receiving prop over, I always make sure the player is running routes on over 75% of pass plays. In the case of Dallas Goedert, he ran a route on a very strong 91% of pass plays in Week 1, and that should not change tonight. At 46.5 receiving yards, with the over priced -105 at Caesars, Goedert has hit this line in five of his last six dating back to last season. In a game with a total of 50, with plenty of offense expected, I think this number may be a little low.
Bet: Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards (-105) Caesars