Week 2 was further proof that all wins are NOT created equal in college football. Alabama’s title odds lengthened from +160 to +200 on DraftKings despite beating Texas on the road 20-19. Alabama struggled offensively, and despite only one turnover – a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter – the Tide were only able to put 20 points up on the board. They looked sloppy on both sides of the ball, tallied 11 penalties in the first half, and 15 in the game.
Georgia has now moved from +400 preseason to +210 on DraftKings two weeks. In fact, on FanDuel, Georgia is now the favorite at +180. The Week 1 win over Oregon was significant in boosting the Bulldogs’ title odds. They beat Samford 33-0 in Week 2 and saw their title odds fall from +300 to +210. They are the only favorite who hasn’t shown signs of weakness through two games, but their 12% implied odds jump - for what I still believe to be the third- best team in the country - is much too generous.
Not much changed in the futures market for Ohio State this weekend as it beat Arkansas State 45-12. Its odds shortened from +320 to +290, which is likely more of a response to Alabama’s unconvincing win than its own victory over the Red Wolves.
The most attractive bet to me involving these three teams is Georgia not to win the National Championship. On FanDuel, it’s priced at -235, which seems like an awfully attractive price. Georgia is one regular season slip up and a conference championship loss away from not even making the playoff - although, the same could be said for Alabama.
Maybe Ohio State deserves a downgrade after Notre Dame’s performance against Marshall, and I wouldn’t argue too strongly with anyone who has Georgia rated higher than the Buckeyes. I could see a conservative rating of Georgia as a pick’em against Alabama on a neutral field, with the Bulldogs at -3 (and -150 on the moneyline) against Ohio State. Even with these ratings, the math still says that Georgia with implied odds of nearly 33% to win the National Championship is much too high.
Georgia National Championship math
In current form, Georgia is probably -14 or shorter at home against Tennessee, and away to Kentucky and Mississippi State. In these three games, Georgia will be -550 or shorter on the moneyline – which when you eliminate VIG equates to odds of -500 (implied odds of 83%). Even if we work off the assumption the Bulldogs win their other seven games – which is obviously not a sure thing – there’s still only a 57% chance they get to the SEC Championship undefeated.
If Georgia gets to the SEC Championship undefeated, we will say it makes the playoff 100% of the time, but only gets to avoid Ohio State in the event it wins the SEC title game, which in my conservative prediction happens 50% of the time. If the Bulldogs get to the title game with one loss, defeat there would knock them out of playoff contention, while a win would likely result in a No. 2 or No. 3 seed (assuming Ohio State and Alabama go undefeated). If Georgia goes into the playoff undefeated, we will make it a -10 (-350 moneyline) favorite in the first game, and then give it a rematch with Alabama in the title game. If the Bulldogs lose a regular season game, or lose to Alabama (or someone else) in the SEC title game, we will assume they have to face Ohio State at -3 and Alabama at PK to win the title.
Georgia title odds:
Odds to go undefeated * odds to win SEC Championship * odds to win playoff semifinal as a No. 1 seed * odds to beat Alabama = 57% * 50% * 78% * 50% = 11.15%
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Odds to go undefeated * odds to lose SEC Championship * odds to beat Ohio State * odds to beat Alabama = 57% * 50% * 60% * 50% = 8.55%
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Odds to not go undefeated * odds to beat Alabama in SEC Championship * odds to beat Ohio State * odds to beat Alabama = 43% * 50% * 60% * 50% = 6.45%
Georgia wins the national title 26.15% of the time.
These are the most generous odds I can come up that favor Georgia to win the title at this point in the season. However, my numbers actually have the Bulldogs +2 vs. Alabama, and a pick’em with Ohio State, which obviously drops their title odds to closer to 20%. The -235 on Georgia “not to win the National Championship” requires it to not win the title 70% of the time to be profitable. Therefore, I am showing a 3.85% edge on betting Georgia “no” – even in my most conservative calculations.
There also could be real value in betting on Georgia to not make the College Football Playoff at current market price. I didn’t even consider the odds of Georgia losing two regular season games for my title calculations – to really emphasize how conservative the calculations were – but I will below.
I am still taking the conservative approach by assuming that if Georgia only loses one game this season, it will get an automatic playoff berth. It is not impossible that Alabama, in addition to three teams from the group of Oklahoma, Clemson/NC State/Miami, Ohio State/Michigan, or even a USC, go undefeated and Georgia misses the playoff as a one-loss team.
Georgia’s odds to miss the CFP:
Odds to not go undefeated * odds to lose the SEC Championship = 43% * 50% = 21.5%
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Odds to lose two or more regular season games w/ 3 games at 83% = 7.7%
Georgia misses the playoff 29.2% of the time.
On DraftKings you can get +320 on Georgia to miss the playoff, which implies it will only miss the playoff 23.8% of the time. Even with my conservative predictions here, I have a 4.4% edge.
The market has overreacted to the first two weeks of the season. Every college football “guru” has said since June this was a two-way race between Ohio State and Alabama, and while my ratings have always had Georgia near the top – I do believe it is still Ohio State or Alabama’s title to lose. However, everyone now seems to be jumping ship after just a one-game sample against competent opponents. I’ll drink a little juice and buy a piece of Ohio State and Alabama here by fading Georgia.
Best bets:
- The Field to win the National Championship > Georgia -235 (1 unit) on FanDuel
- Georgia not to make the College Football Playoff +320 (0.5 units) on DraftKings