NFL OROY odds update: Dotson new co-favorite after big Week 1

Jahan Dotson entered the 2022 NFL season with 20-1 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year – nine rookie wide receivers had shorter odds. Following an outstanding debut, Dotson is now the co-favorite at 8-1 along with Pittsburgh Steelers rookie George Pickens.

The Washington Commanders rookie looked like the real deal this past Sunday in a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, catching two touchdowns, while seeing more targets than supposed WR1 Terry McLaurin. Clearly, he caught oddsmakers’ attention. Washington is likely to be trailing often this season, which sets up Dotson for a potentially huge rookie year.

Only two wide receivers have won OROY since 2013 – Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja’Marr Chase – with quarterbacks largely dominating the market. The only first round quarterback drafted in 2022 was Kenny Pickett, and Mike Tomlin has already come out and said this is Mitch Trubisky’s team. Even if you're skeptical of Tomlin’s comments, it’s hard to imagine Pickett starting any time sooner than midseason at best, at which point there wouldn’t be enough time for him to close the gap between the other favorites. Meanwhile, all the potential running backs priced with a shot in this market have a difficult path to getting the necessary work required to be in consideration.

There’s no telling when Brian Robinson will be back, which makes the move from 15-1 to 10-1 perplexing. In somewhat of a surprise, Lovie Smith opted to start Rex Burkhead instead of Dameon Pierce in the Houston Texans’ Week 1 tie against Indianapolis. Pierce had 11 carries to Burkhead’s 14. While I’m not as bearish on the Texans as some, Pierce has virtually no chance to win this award if he’s not the bell cow of this backfield, and all signs indicate it will be a running back by committee system. Lastly, Breece Hall, who garnered a lot of preseason hype, saw his odds lengthen from 10-1 to 20-1 – quite a telling move. Hall only had six carries in Week 1 and will be more of a short yardage and passing back for the Jets, while Michael Carter carries the bulk of the load. Barring injury, it’s unlikely he will get the touches required to be in the OROY conversation.

This season is setting up for a receiver to take home OROY. The number on Pickens is too beat up to justify, especially considering he’s playing alongside a strong group of pass catchers in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth. Pickens was a great bet at 40-1, but the current price is an obvious pass. Chris Olave has potential, but similar to Pickens, he’s playing alongside Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, making it hard to stand out. 

There’s value in receivers Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Garrett Wilson, who are all on bad teams with weak receiving corps that will, similarly to Dotson, be playing from behind in most games. Following the drastic move in Dotson’s odds, it’s hard to justify a bet at current price. That being said, his odds might lengthen should Washington have a rough stretch, which seems inevitable considering Carson Wentz is under center.

In a rare year with no starting rookie quarterbacks, or any star rookie running backs, there will be lots of volatility in the OROY odds week-to-week, specifically with regards to receivers.