Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with The Hammer Betting Network giving out my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.
In Week 2, our bet on the Cincinnati Bengals covering the first half (-4) did not hit. In fact, the Bengals have been outscored 34-9 in the first half this season. That’s about as shocking a stat as any, especially considering they were the AFC representative in Super Bowl LVI. With our last loss, we’re now 2-1 overall in derivative bets for The Hammer Network. Let’s snag another win this weekend – we’re headed to Minnesota in a game where we think the Vikings offense can thrive after a bad loss.
Vikings 1H team total over 14.5 (+100)
Last Monday night we witnessed the up-and-down roller coaster that continues to be the Minnesota Vikings story. After a scintillating Week 1 win against their arch-rival, the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota’s offense fell hard against the Eagles, totaling only 264 yards and seven points. To Minnesota’s credit, its defense shutout the Eagles offense in the second half; a unit that looked unstoppable in the first 30 minutes of play. Still, the Vikings must be incredibly disappointed about Monday’s result.
This Sunday presents an entirely different situation. Kirk Cousins famously flails in big-game situations and Monday Night Football at Philadelphia certainly fits the bill. Time for Kirk to dust that off and get back to work. On Sunday, in a cushy 1:00 p.m. ET spot, Cousins can comfortably lead his offense against a Detroit Lions team that’s gaining some respect after a nice Week 2 win against the Commanders. Detroit controlled that contest, exploding with one big offensive play after another and gaining nearly 200 yards on the ground. But this bet isn’t about the Lions’ offense, although we don’t mind that they’ve looked proficient. An effective opposing offense serves as a strong catalyst for this derivative angle.
Despite a big Week 2, Detroit just hasn’t looked refined on defense. Rookie Malcolm Rodriguez was graded as the Lions' best pass rusher and run defender in Week 2; that’s impressive, but it’s also an indictment on their lack of defensive talent. Their first-round pick, Aidan Hutchinson, looks like the real deal. He plowed through the Commanders’ offensive line for three sacks in the first half last weekend. But holistically the Lions defense hasn’t successfully limited anyone. Let’s look at some statistics to back up where we’re saying. Through two weeks, Detroit is:
- 31st in points allowed per game (32.5)
- 30th in yards allowed per game (425.5)
- 30th in opponent red-zone efficiency (87.5%)
- 30th in opponent 3rd down efficiency (53.13%)
- 32nd in opponent TDs per game (4.5)
- 27th in opponent yards per rush (5.1)
- 28th in opponent pass yards per game (273.5)
Call me crazy, but this looks like a great opportunity for the Vikings’ offense to get right. Kevin O’Connell, the new head coach in Minnesota, was hired because of his play-calling prowess. We saw the potential of his offense in Week 1.
Last year, this same Vikings team outscored its opponents 115-83 after a road loss. Cousins in games after a road loss last season: 1,207 yards, 10 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. In other words, he lights it up.
The Vikings are at home where they haven’t lost to the Lions since 2017. Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Theilen and Kirk Cousins are all due for supreme positive regression. The Lions have shown a formidable offense thus far; they’re top five in points per game, yards per game, and yards per rush. They’ll keep the pressure on Minnesota, but I don’t think the Detroit defense can hold back the Vikings’ attack. Expect the home team to come out on fire in front of their home crowd – we love this team-total over two touchdowns in the first half.