Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with The Hammer Betting Network giving out my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.
In Week 3, our derivative bet caught a brutal beat. The Vikings were a big letdown, scoring a scintillating zero points in the first quarter against the Lions, followed by 14 points in the second quarter to fall below our team total wager over 14.5 in the first half. We’re 2-2 so far and frankly, we’re amped about that recent loss. Onto more wins!
Daniel Jones over 30.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
If one thing was clear about the Monday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys, it’s that Daniel Jones is the clear centerpiece of the Giants’ offense. Whether that’s a wise decision for head coach Brian Daboll or not is up to you, but it is what it is. Throwing and running, Jones has been a part of 117 of the Giants’ 195 plays (60%), and 25 of those plays were on the ground. Against the Cowboys he ran on nine different plays for 79 yards, and I’m not sure he’ll need as many attempts against the Chicago Bears.
The Bears’ defense seems formidable against the pass so far, allowing only 201 yards per game through the air. Some of that is “fake news” due to the wild weather in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, but the real indictment of their defense is against the run. Check out this fascinating combination of statistics:
- Opponents have chosen to run the ball on only 52.11% of their plays against the Bears; that’s the fewest percentage any defense has faced so far this season, and yet,
- The Bears are among the worst rushing defenses statistically in the NFL; they allow:
- 4.8 yards per rush (20th)
- 157 rush yards per game (30th)
Yikes. New coach Brian Daboll introduced more creativity and a more run-centered approach to New York’s offense. His ingenuity made a difference. So far, Big Blue is one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL:
- 5.6 yards per rush (2nd)
- 30 rushes per game (7th)
- 169.3 yards per game (4th)
But it’s too simple for other defenses if the Giants only focus on running Saquon Barkley. The bootleg, a play the Giants probably should have used more prolifically in season’s past, has become New York’s favorite setup. Daniel Jones’ rolls out of the pocket, Daniel Jones can’t find a receiver, and Daniel Jones’ correspondingly turns on the jets. We’ve seen it over and over again as part of the Giants’ offense, and I don’t think that’s going away any time soon. That’s especially true with their current wide-receiver corps.
Kadarius Toney, their upstart 2nd year receiver out of Florida who’s already become their best playmaker in their passing game, was already announced as out for Sunday’s game. Explosive rookie Wan’Dale Robinson is also out. Sterling Sheperd suffered a season-ending ACL surgery on Monday Night Football and he’s out for the reason. That leaves Richie James, David Sills V and a cold Darius Slayton left. Kenny Golladay has barely seen the field thus far and when he has, he hasn’t done much. Two catches for 22 yards in Week 1 are his only credited stats so far this season. The Giants are very thin at wide receiver and they’ll need to run smartly against the Bears on Sunday.
Lastly, inclement weather is looming over MetLife Stadium for this contest. Currently meteorologists predict a 60% chance of rain and, even more importantly, winds sustaining 17 miles per hour. That’s even more evidence that both teams will continue to focus on running attacks.
Poor receiver talent, weather, and evidence that the Giants’ game plan won’t change against a Bears’ defense that’s vulnerable against the run– I love DJ’s chances of eclipsing a small total of 31.5 rushing yards. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran for considerably more.