Week five left a bad taste in my mouth. There weren’t many performances worth praising.
Scoring environment – update
The scoring environment continued to be low in week five – the MNF matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders could still push it upwards. However, the average total score was 41.8, with a median of 38. This brings us to an average score of 43.5 and a median score of 41 on the season. Both numbers represent a record-low since the 2011 season.
John Harbaugh: just why?
The Ravens were up 13-10 with 9:46 to go in the fourth quarter and had a fourth-and-1 at the 3-yard line of the Bengals. He decided to send out Justin Kicker to turn a one-possession game into a… one-possession game. The Ravens ran the ball very well in the game and have Lamar Jackson, so why did John Harbaugh kick it there? The Ravens could have turned the score into 20-10 and put tremendous pressure on the Bengals, who would have needed another two scores just to force overtime. He kicked a field goal and allowed the Bengals to get the lead with a touchdown. And most importantly, he did no favors to Ravens -3 bettors. The John Harbaugh of the past few years would have gone for it blindly.
Packers defense – more like Swiss Cheeseheads
Jaire Alexander. Adrian Amos. Darnell Savage. Eric Stokes. Rashan Gary. Kenny Clark. De’Vondre Campbell. Devonte Wyatt. Quay Walker. That’s seven first-round picks, an All-Pro linebacker, and a decent safety in Adrian Amos. But it doesn’t seem to matter. Through five weeks, the Packers' defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.
They rank 11th in EPA/dropback and 13th in dropback success rate after playing four games against Justin Fields, Tom Brady without his top-four wide receivers, Bailey Zappe, and Daniel Jones on a bum ankle. Going into the season, many experts ranked the Packers defense as a top-five unit, or even the best. They are stacked on paper, as the Packers vacated many resources into this unit. But it doesn’t show up on the field. They are routinely giving up big plays. During the second half, Daniel Jones had a few plays where he torched them through the air via play-action crossers. The Pack couldn’t stop the run when they knew it was coming from the wildcat. This is highly concerning.
Against the Vikings in Week 1, Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry completely ignored that Minnesota has a superstar wide receiver in Justin Jefferson. The Patriots moved the ball very well, considering they had to throw in Bailey Zappe early when Brian Hoyer got a concussion.
Dallas Cowboys – you have my attention
I was wrong, plain and simple. Going into the season, I thought the Cowboys defense would be a victim of defensive turnover regression. After Tom Brady moved the ball up and down the field in Week 1 just to fail in the red zone, I felt vindicated. When Dak Prescott went down, I thought Dallas was cooked: regression on defense, an injury-riddled offensive line, no Michael Gallup, Cooper Rush at quarterback, and Mike McCarthy as the head coach. I thought its season was over. It was not.
The result: The coaching staff didn’t mess up, and the offense mainly played conservatively and mistake-free. The defense is SWARMING. That’s an incredible recipe for short-term success against a non-elite schedule (CIN, NYG, WAS, LAR). Defensive performance is still highly volatile, opponent-dependent, and hard to predict, but Dan Quinn has created a foundation up front that allows them to win the pass-rushing battle against many offensive lines in this league.
Dak Prescott might be back by the end of the month. There’s absolutely no reason to have any Rush vs. Dak discussion. On the season, among signal-callers with at least 100 dropbacks, Rush ranks 17th in EPA/play and 26th in dropback success rate. Across the four games he started, the Cowboys trailed for only 11 minutes. He wasn’t in any come-from-behind or high-leverage situations. A healthy Prescott will significantly raise the ceiling.
Jacksonville Jaguars – what was that?
Everyone wanted to see a competent, dominant performance against the Houston Texans to respect the Jaguars as a contender. Through four weeks they had wins against Matt “my arm is cooked” Ryan and the Los Angeles Chargers with Justin Herbert injured, and the Bolts losing many other key players. They lost to the Washington Commodores and got controlled by the Philadelphia Eagles for most of the game. They needed a convincing win against the Texans but utterly failed to do so.
The Jags’ offense averaged a lowly -0.12 EPA/play, and their defense missed 17 tackles against Dameon Pierce. And they shot themselves in the foot when rookie Travon Walker committed unnecessary roughness on a third-and-20 that extended the Texans’ final scoring drive. This is not it, Jags. You cannot lose to Carson Wentz and Davis Mills when you want to contend for a wild card spot in the AFC.
Run on ‘em
Over the first five weeks, the Browns defense is giving up 0.19 EPA per rush attempt. Someone might check it, but there might be a legit chance that this never happened before. For comparison, there are only THREE passing offenses right now – Buffalo, Kansas City, and Seattle – that are averaging more EPA per DROPBACK than what the Brownies are giving up on the ground. That’s unheard of. They got annihilated by the Bolts’ ground attack. And that was despite Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney being back in the lineup and playing a combined 50 run defense snaps out of a possible 62. Their EPA/play number will likely go upwards only due to random variance. But things are looking ugly for their run defense early on.