Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with The Hammer Betting Network giving out my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.
In Week 5, our derivative bets were demolished early as the Raiders got pressure on Patrick Mahomes and prevented the Chiefs from covering their first quarter and first half lines. That puts our derivative bets at 3-4 so, naturally, I’m seeking revenge at the Hammer Network! Let’s get to our Week 6 look!
Best bets
The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the poorest performing teams in the first half through five weeks. Averaging only 5.2 points and sacrificing 16 points per game (ppg) to their opponents in the first two quarters, the Cardinals apparently love playing from behind. So then why am I choosing to wager on the Cardinals in the first half this week? Regression, that’s why.
Astonishingly, even though Arizona plays so poorly in the first half, it's 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Somehow the Cardinals find ways to claw themselves back into the game in the third and fourth quarters, but that’s not the way you win football games. Luckily for them, their enemy this week should permit new, early opportunities. After all, the Seattle Seahawks are the only defense allowing more points than the Cardinals in the first half this season: opponents are averaging 16.4 ppg in the first 30 minutes.
At this juncture in the season, the Seahawks’ defense has looked historically bad. Everyone’s talking about Geno Smith, who continues to tear up opposing defenses, and he deserves the adulation. Geno is playing unbelievable football. He’s composed in the pocket, he anticipates throws like he’s been a franchise quarterback for decades, and he can roll away from a blitz and create big plays. At the same time, he’s forced to play stellar football because his defense can’t keep anyone off the field. Check out these horrifying defensive statistics on the Seahawks through five games:
- Points allowed: 31st (30.8)
- Yards per game allowed: 32nd (430)
- Yards per play allowed: 32nd (6.6)
- Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage: 30th (49.18%)
- Opponent 4th down conversion percentage: 30th (71.43%)
- Rush yards allowed: 32nd (170.2)
- Opponent yards per pass: 32nd (8.6)
Needless to say, this feels like the Cardinals’ perfect opportunity to “get-right.” Kyler Murray is still without DeAndre Hopkins and his starting running back, James Connor, will also be out of this contest. This sets up to be a huge Kyler Murray game, both running and throwing, and I highly encourage people to take him in DFS and season-long fantasy. He’ll have windows and space that he’s not used to. And to Kyler’s credit, he’s faced above average defenses like the Chiefs, Rams, Panthers, and Eagles. We won’t count their game against the Raiders as part of that challenging group, but that was a tough spot in Week 2 on the road.
Lastly, this game projects to be very high scoring, and we like that for our bets. Where Seattle falls short on defense, they rise to the occasion on offense. Geno Smith leads an attack that’s top 10 in points per game, yards per play and yards per game, yards per pass, yards per rush (1st, 5.5), and 3rd down conversion rate. The Cardinals’ defense is quietly formidable against the run, allowing only 4.3 yards per rush and 97.4 yards per game to opponents. That fits perfectly for the game script we want. We should see a ton of passing attempts from both quarterbacks and, therefore, a slow-moving game that gives both offenses more opportunities to score. Light it up, boys!
This presents as an exceptional opportunity for Kyler and his offense to rejuvenate early and put up some points. Take our bets and don’t look back!
Best bets:
- Cardinals 1H over 13.5 (-105)
- Kyler Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (-110)