Byron Leftwich – what are you doing?
Everyone who watches football this season understands the strengths and weaknesses of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. The strength lies in the passing game with Tom Brady and a receiving group that’s been getting healthier over recent weeks. The rushing attack – particularly with the injuries to starting center Ryan Jensen and starting left guard Ali Marpet – has not worked at all for Tampa Bay. Last week, the Bucs offense ranked dead-last in EPA per rush (-0.302), averaging a lowly 3.34 yards per carry. The Pittsburgh Steelers had a lot of injury issues, namely edge-rusher TJ Watt and four secondary starters. The best strategy to attack such a depleted passing defense should be – you guessed it – by throwing the football.
On early downs throughout the game, Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich called 22 runs and 32 passes. Those runs averaged -0.19 EPA/play and a success rate of 41%, while the passes averaged 0.34 EPA/play and a success rate of 59%, as expected. The key problem was on first down. Tampa Bay ran the ball 16 times on first down, averaging -0.124 EPA/play and 3.25 yards per play. When the Bucs started a series of downs with a run, their series success rate – getting a new first down or a touchdown – was 10% lower. Why do you call 16 runs - on 30 first downs - when you have the worst rushing attack in the league, and your opponent is playing without several starters in the secondary? The Bucs put themselves in bad late-down situations consistently, where Tom Brady struggled. It didn’t help that the offensive line is struggling at pass protection at times this season while dealing with injuries. The Bucs did not convert a single third-and-long in this game. It doesn’t need to be so complicated – throw the damn ball when you get the matchup. Don’t put yourself in bad situations by design.
The Jets keep winning in an exciting fashion
Since Zach Wilson got back from his injury, the Jets are 3-0. The road victory at Lambeau Field was convincing – when we ignore the quarterback position. The Jets’ defensive front dominated the Packers’ offensive line from start to finish and made Aaron Rodgers’ life in the pocket uncomfortable. Sauce Gardner locked down his matchups, while the rest of the group contained anything underneath. The only path for offensive success for Green Bay was when Aaron Rodgers hit some magic throws down the sideline.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets took advantage of a matchup we indicated in last week’s column: the Packers’ run defense. The Jets ran for 0.21 EPA/play and had a rushing success rate of 50 percent. The Cheeseheads cannot stop anyone on the ground. Gang Green also got help from a return touchdown off a blocked punt.
Defense, run game, special teams. What’s missing is the quarterback play. Zach Wilson had yet another uninspiring game. On the season, 38 quarterbacks have had 50 or more drop backs. After three rounds, Zach Wilson ranks 27th in EPA/play, 36th in success rate, and 34th in CPOE. And that’s despite his offense being essentially healthy and film guys raving about offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur designing a good offense. During the Packers game, it was evident that Wilson still struggles with his pocket presence and processing arriving pressure.
Moving forward, there are two glaring questions regarding handicapping Jets games: Can Zach Wilson improve as the season progresses? And, if not, can the defense and the run game be sustainable enough to carry him against certain opponents?
The Eagles continue to have a tremendous floor
Is there something to criticize Philly for? The Eagles are the kings of the first halves. They have outscored opposing teams in six games by 78 points before halftime – different ballpark stuff. Some might say they invite opponents to come back in the second half by taking their foot off the gas. That’s only partly true. Philly is only averaging 5.8 points in the second half. But they have not been behind for a single minute after the half this year. They find ways to close out games. Whether that’s by tearing down opposing defenses on the ground or letting their secondary feast in obvious passing situations as they did against Cooper Rush on Sunday Night Football. You cannot fault them for that.
The Eagles beat their opponents in different ways. They have several strengths, but they try to find the right buttons each week and press them until their opponents find the correct answers. On the first scoring drive against Dallas, the Eagles called nine passes to only four running back runs. On the second scoring drive, Sirianni called six straight runs before Jalen Hurts sealed a touchdown pass to AJ Brown. To deal with the furious pass rush of Micah Parsons, the Eagles simply called many plays where they left him unblocked by design.
It’s also refreshing to see a coach like Nick Sirianni approach the game with a forward-thinking mindset. He called a run on third-and-5 at the DAL 40 on the first scoring drive, knowing that he would go for it on fourth down anyway. Kenneth Gainwell only gained two yards, and then on fourth-and-3, they called a run-pass option where Jalen Hurts read the unblocked Micah Parsons and threw the ball into the flat to a wide-open AJ Brown, who caught the whole defense off-guard. A couple of plays later, Sirianni called a quarterback sneak where Gainwell and Brown were lined up in the backfield and pushed Hurts forward to ensure he got the first down.
A fair question would point toward the ceiling of the passing attack. Jalen Hurts struggled tremendously against the blitz, and Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn got to him several times. Will Jalen Hurts be able to deliver a dropback passing game when the defense knows what’s coming? We might not know before the playoffs because the Eagles are so good on several levels that they often don’t get into that situation.
What are the Jaguars?
After looking like a (light) juggernaut early in the year, the Jags are now 2-4, with their only two wins coming against the injury-depleted Colts and Chargers in weeks two and three. Their defense got carved up by Matt Ryan all day – kudos to Frank Reich for not even thinking about establishing the run. Jacksonville doesn’t look entirely bad on either side of the ball, but they also don’t look specifically good at anything outside of stopping the run. They are hard to grasp right now.