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NFL Week 7 best derivative bet: Joey Shiesty will SHINE

Joe Burrow.png

Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with The Hammer Betting Network giving out my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.

In Week 6, our derivative bets went 1-1. Kyler Murray destroyed the over 27.5 rushing yards prop but somehow the Cardinals only mustered 9 points of offense. Our first half over 13.5 points didn’t have a chance– a sad showing from a Cardinals offense in a good matchup. That puts our derivative bets at 4-5– let’s get right!

Chris is focusing on the Falcons @ Bengals with his favorite derivative bet for Week 7. For more thoughts on this game, here's Joe Osborne's favorite play in his weekly show, Teaser Time, on The Hammer Betting Network:



Joe Burrow OVER 284.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DK)

Joe Burrow finally had the game he wanted last weekend. Returning to the state where he made a name for himself, Burrow threw for 28/37 (76% completion rating, no big deal), 300 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Saints in a win. The Bengals (-2) were our biggest bet of the season; thankfully they won and covered that line. 

A few things happened in that game that we really like for Joe Burrow and his wide receivers heading into Week 7. Firstly, Burrow threw for his highest completion percentage this season. He also threw for his second highest passing yards total since Week 1. On top of that and perhaps more important than anything else, Tee Higgins was finally on the field. Playing in 48% of the Bengals’ snaps, Higgins caught 6 balls for 47 yards in the Caesars Superdome. Coming in cold after missing Week 5, Higgins has been playing through an ankle sprain all season. Now he’s warmed up, practicing in full and ready to go against the Atlanta Falcons. News flash: healthy trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd is a problem for opposing defenses.

It’s also vital to have Higgins and a full corps of receivers back because defenses have been playing differently against Burrow. Daring him to throw deep, most enemy defenses are putting two safeties 15-20 yards back at the snap in an attempt to limit Burrow’s downfield throwing ability. Last year their vertical pass-game was a big reason why Cincinnati could pull away from other teams. The deep ball threat of Burrow to Chase or Higgins or Boyd was almost impossible to stop. With all three wide-receivers getting the green-light this Sunday, the Falcons will have a harder time limiting those big plays. 

Last week, Burrow had only two completions over 25 yards. One came late in the fourth quarter, but that was a short pass; Ja’Marr just did his thing and burned the defender for a 60 yard gain. I think we’ll see their pass game open up this week.

The Falcons are hanging in games (6-0 ATS this season) and winning because of a nuanced rushing attack and gutsy performances by quarterback Marcus Mariota. It’s not because of a stingy defense. Against the pass, the Falcons are one of the worst defenses in the NFL:

  • Opp Completion percentage: 69.01% (#31)
  • Opp Yards/Pass: 7.0 (#22)
  • Opp Pass Yards/Game: 281.2 (#31)
  • Opp Int Thrown percentage: 2.48% (#14)
  • Sack percentage: 3.20% (#32)

That last data point is particularly interesting. If the Falcons can’t get to Burrow, and usually it’s only Atlanta’s All-Pro defensive end Grady Jarrett that gets any pressure, Burrow can and will torch his opponent. And that’s not hearsay– we saw it over and over again last season. The Bengals’ offensive line is healthy heading into this contest; another good sign for Burrow.

After an inspiring win, back home, and with Tee Higgins returning in full to their starting lineup, this sets up for an explosive performance from Joe Burrow. If nothing else, last year’s AFC Champions are due for a tremendous amount of positive regression. I think we will see that all come together this weekend. Take Burrow’s passing yards over and don’t look back!