For more Week 7 takeaways and a look ahead to Week 8, watch Rob Pizzola and Clive Bixby on the latest edition of Forward Progress:
How good will the Jets’ defense be going forward?
Since Week 4, when Zach Wilson took over as the Jets’ signal-caller, Gang Green are 4-0. Over that stretch, their defense has been playing at an incredible level. The pass rush is looking special at times on tape, and offenses are having a hard time targeting rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner on the outside. Gang Green has given up the following point totals over that span: 20 (PIT), 17 (MIA), 10 (GB), and 9 (DEN). When analyzing the Jets defense, the interesting question becomes: how much of the defensive success is driven by the schedule of opposing offenses and how much by their quality?
Since week four, the Jets defense ranks third in EPA/play but only 22nd in success rate (plays that generate a positive EPA number). Opposing offenses are having some success moving the ball down-to-down, but the Jets are erasing big plays and creating turnovers. They have created 27 expected points via turnovers since week four, also third-most in the league. But now let’s check on the offenses they have faced:
- Steelers with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett in his first NFL game
- Dolphins with rookie Skylar Thompson who was not prepared to start
- Packers who scored 14 offensive points against Washington
- Broncos with Brett Rypien
Even the biggest Jets fan must admit that’s a fortunate stretch of opposing offenses. Earlier in the season, the same group of players – the Jets defense – looked to be in rough shape against the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals. They seem to have an intriguing recipe that should lead to success: a good front four and a lockdown cornerback. But defensive performance depends on the opposing offense to a certain degree and, therefore, is very volatile week-to-week. We will know how good the Jets defense truly is after they play better competition.
Bengals? Shotgun!
I always applaud teams or franchises for challenging the status quo. If something doesn’t work, try to fix it, even if it means you have to diverge from your base principles. Fit the scheme to the players, not vice versa. Going into the season, the Bengals had all the ingredients to be an elite offense: an up-and-coming young quarterback, a fantastic receiving trio, and an offensive line that got upgrades during the offseason. But it didn’t work out early on. From Week 1-4, the Bengals ranked dead-last in EPA/play (-0.17) and 29th in success rate on neutral early downs. And it’s not like they played the 1985 Bears four times in a row. They couldn’t move the ball unless Joe Burrow was in an obvious passing situation. Since then, they have ranked 10th in EPA/play and fourth in success rate.
What did they do differently? From Week 1-4, the Bengals were in shotgun 66 percent of the time, passing the ball 84% out of those shotgun looks, according to Sports Info Solutions. When the Bengals were under center, they ran the ball 75% of the time for -0.27 EPA/play. First, they were highly predictable because opposing defenses could expect a run from under center a lot more often. Secondly, the Bengals were bad when running from under center and consistently put themselves into more challenging situations in each series of downs. There were no synergies between the run and passing game because most of the passes came from shotgun looks, and the runs from under center.
Since Week 5, the Bengals have been a shotgun offense almost exclusively. In the past two games, they only went under center for sneaks and kneel-downs. They have tripled their RPO rate and increased their early down pass rate. Since then, they rank 10th in EPA/play on neutral early downs and fourth in success rate. Their rushing attack is averaging positive EPA/play (0.21 in weeks 5-6, waiting for Week 7 data). Their run attack is functioning a lot better from the shotgun, and now the run and the passing game is tied more together because they can call passes and runs or play-action and RPOs from the same looks. They are not telegraphing their plays anymore. It’s the Joe Burrow offense now. That doesn’t mean the Bengals are suddenly the best offense in the league. But with that transformation, they raised the floor significantly.
The Eagles & Cowboys are the two best teams in the NFC
Dak Prescott didn’t “look” stellar in his first game back from the thumb injury, but there wasn’t much we could expect. Quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first game back from hand injuries. A few passes weren’t accurate enough, and he held the ball a bit too long on a few third downs. Dak still posted 0.22 EPA/dropback and a success rate of 61% when passing the ball. But almost all that production came late – Prescott added 6.2 of his 6.7 EPA (rbdsm.com) on the last two drives after the Jared Goff turnovers.
Prescott’s performance level will increase with more practice and game reps. And that’s the scary part for all – or most – other NFC teams. The Cowboys have an excellent defense with a furious pass rush that can feast on many offensive lines and go into attack mode with a positive game script. Their offensive line is looking better than early in the season, CeeDee Lamb is a stud, and Michael Gallup is inching closer toward 100% as the season continues. Dallas looks well-equipped on both sides of the ball.
Right now, the NFC has a tier with the Eagles and Cowboys at the top, and then there’s a gap. Dallas has played well despite Dak Prescott standing at the sidelines, whereas the Eagles have been the most complete team over the first seven weeks of NFL action.
Bonus: Nathaniel Hackett & Brett Rypien – you can do better
A situation late in the Jets-Broncos game made me shake my head. The Broncos were trailing 9-16. First, they had a fourth-and-3 at the Jets’ 25-yard line. The last play ended with 2.36 on the clock. The Broncos still had three timeouts and the two-minute warning. So if they failed, they would still have enough time to regain the ball. Nathaniel Hackett elected not to run another play and let the clock run down to the two-minute warning. Alright, get the first down and milk the clock before you try your best to reach the end zone. The Broncos came up with a fascinating play. On fourth-and-3 with 1.55 to go, they threw a deep pass to the end zone with Sauce Gardner covering Courtland Sutton. The ball was placed pretty well, but Sauce made an excellent play. That pass likely had a low completion probability when adjusting for Gardner in coverage. Why do you make it so hard on yourself? Try the easy stuff and get the first down. The Jets would have gotten the ball back with 1:50 and three timeouts to drive for a field goal even if that had been a touchdown.