We were 10 yards shy of a 2-0 night on Sunday, but Patrick Mahomes somehow couldn’t clear 263 yards through the air while putting up 41 points of offense. It all felt like a bad dream. On the other side, the game script allowed Tom Brady to throw for 385 yards, which hit the over quite easily for us. We are 2-2 so far this week, let’s get two more wins to cap off our prime time picks.
On Monday the LA Rams make their way to San Francisco to take on the 49ers - a team coming off one of the most boring Sunday Night football games in the history of the sport. Yes, that’s a stat. It will be a rematch of the NFC Championship Game from a year ago, when the Rams won 20-17 to advance to the Super Bowl.
The 49ers just weren’t able to move the ball a week ago, and it doesn’t get easier against a Rams defense loaded with starpower. The Rams have the 10th-best run defense in the NFL while allowing just 281 yards on the ground, and have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. It will be tough sledding for the run game and for the offense in general without Trent Williams, who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Broncos and will be out for at least four weeks. Colton McKivitz, who has four career starts, will likely replace him on the line. I’m expecting to see a lot of Aaron Donald in the back field and a ton of pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed on some big plays against the Broncos and also .. well, stepped out of the end zone for a safety. The 49ers have won the last six regular-season meetings between these two and own one of the league’s best front seven, but I don’t see the 29th-ranked passing offense keeping up with Matthew Stafford and the Rams. According to FPI projections, the Rams have a 60% chance of winning this game and should actually be favored by three points. Im in on the moneyline here and taking the value.
Bet: Rams moneyline (+110 at BetVictor)
Cam Akers outcarried Darrell Henderson 12-4 last week in their game against the Arizona Cardinals. However, they played the same number of snaps, so I can see this number being closer to a committee as it has been all season come Monday. Akers went over the number (44.5) for the first time this season a week ago, but going up against this San Francisco defense is going to be a different story. The unit is the top-ranked run defense in the NFL and third in defensive DVOA, so I expect Akers to have a difficult time in the trenches. Couple that with Henderson stealing some of his opportunities, and I think we cruise to an under win here.
Bet: Akers under 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at Sports Interaction)