Week 4 wraps up Monday night with an NFC West matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers are 1.5-point home favorites while the game carries a total of 42.5. After going 6-0 on article plays throughout the last week and 12-0 on bets thus far in Week 4, let’s finish the week strong with a few props in tonight’s game.
This matchup features a 1-2 49ers team as a favorite against a 2-1 Rams team whose loss came against the powerhouse Bills. Upon first glance, many may feel like this line is generous to the 49ers, but when you dig a little deeper into the numbers, it’s actually quite sharp. In this circumstance, I would lean towards trusting the Vegas linemakers rather than assuming the Rams are a good play on the road. I am expecting a close, defensive game in this one and because of that, the prop market becomes a little harder to take advantage of.
Best bets
The 49ers offense has not done anything to make me believe they are or will be good this season. Jimmy Garoppolo has a QBR of 29.2 through his first two games and found a way to lose 11-10 to the Broncos a week ago. With that being said, I do think there is one guy they will look to get going in this matchup.
George Kittle is back from injury and played 91% of snaps a week ago. Although he only managed four receptions for 28 yards, expect his target share to see a boost tonight. His 43.5 receiving yards number is a slight discount to where we have seen him in the past and in his last eight games against the Rams, he has surpassed this number in six of them. Over those eight games he is averaging 78.1 yards, which has included three games of over 100. If you dive in a little deeper and take a look at a larger sample size, he is averaging 76.4 yards per game over his past three seasons predominantly with Garoppolo as his quarterback.
A week ago Zach Ertz was targeted 10 times against the Rams which resulted in 45 yards. Ertz is a fine player, but he’s a tier below Kittle. Coming off a game of only five targets a week ago, look for Kittle to end this game near double digit targets, and if that is the case, I love him to rack up well north of 43.5 yards here. With his recent success against the Rams and his health being close to 100%, we can confidently back the tight end, who should be Garoppolo’s favorite target going forward.
Bet: Kittle over 43.5 receiving yards (-111) Bet365 1u
On the Rams side of the ball, this is going to be short and sweet. Matthew Stafford has thrown five interceptions in his last three games against the 49ers and yet, he has -110 odds to throw one tonight? He has already thrown five in three games this season and I just cannot fathom how this line is not north of -135. I could be walking directly into a Stafford masterclass here and I would be the first to admit if it is a bad pick, but these are odds I could not pass up. Stafford has thrown a pick in seven of his last 10, and will face a 49ers defense with three interceptions through three games.
I am not the biggest fan of interception props, but if a guy is throwing them on 4.9% of his attempts, I can definitely make an exception.
Bet: Stafford over 0.5 interceptions (-110) BetMGM 1u