The NHL has experienced a wrath of domination from the betting favorites over the last couple of seasons. If you followed the NHL, you likely picked up on this trend, but let’s sift through the numbers.
The 2021-2022 season was dubbed the squarest in recent history.
- The preseason betting favorite, the Colorado Avalanche (+625), won the Stanley Cup
- Favorites in the playoffs went 59-30 (66.2%)
- Favorites in the regular season went 849-462 (64.8%)
- From opening night (October 12, 2021) through January 26, 2022, home favorites went 425-159-63 (65.7%).
The NHL paused its season due to Covid-19 concerns on December 22, 2021, and resumed play on December 28, 2021. A period of several weeks following the restart had some staggering numbers as well:
- From December 28 through January 3, favorites went 28-7 (80%), while overs in that same stretch went 35-12 (65.7%)
- From December 28 through January 26, home underdogs went just 17-39-9 (26.2%)
- A three-day stretch from April 15-17 resulted in favorites going 23-0
You get the point by now. There was an unprecedented dominance from favorites in the 2021-22 campaign, with some data showing similar trends going back to the 2020-2021 season as well. If you blindly bet every favorite last season, you would have returned about 3% ROI. This was particularly frustrating for me as a bettor who likes betting on undervalued underdogs. Historically, favorites win at about a 56-58% rate.
What caused this stretch of dominance? Will the tides turn to their normal rate?
I have a couple of theories that may have a compounding effect: The first being the stop-and-go nature created by the Covid-19 stoppages, allowing the better team to match up with their lesser opponent on equal rest more often. A good time to bet on an underdog is when there is an advantage in travel and rest.
The second theory is this past season had a much larger talent gap between the top and bottom tier of teams than in years past. In the Eastern Conference this was especially true, with eight teams recording a 100-point season – five of them 110 or more – while the other four teams all finished below 85 points.
Will the underdogs get their revenge in the 2022-23 season? The chances are high. This season the league returns to its normal schedule for the first time since 2018-19 – the 2019-20 season started normally but was interrupted in March by the pandemic. At the same time, many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings the last couple of seasons have improved. Some of the elite teams are ageing, rosters have shuffled, and the gap from the top to the bottom may be closing – parity is making its way back.
The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings made many acquisitions of veteran and star talent to a growing young core. The New Jersey Devils keep growing up and have added some veteran presence as well. The Buffalo Sabres pieced together a promising last few weeks of their 2021-22 season, and it will be interesting to see if they can carry that through an entire campaign. The Columbus Blue Jackets added premier scoring talent to an impressive crop of young players. In the Western Conference, the Anaheim Ducks added veteran presence to a young core, while the Seattle Kraken are a deep, experienced team that will be considerably improved with better goaltending play. The San Jose Sharks will be able to compete in any given matchup with their premier top line, veteran defensemen, and goalie tandem.
Many of the elite teams in the league over the course of the last decade have ageing cores, and it’s just a matter of time until the hourglass flips. Many of these young, hungry teams are ready to emerge – will it start this year? We’ll find out soon.