The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football, with both teams coming off Week 2 losses. This divisional matchup sees the Browns as four-point favorites at home, with a game total of 38.5. This AFC North rivalry has been controlled by the underdogs as of late, with the favorite losing the last three meetings outright. In a game that features Mike Tomlin and the Steelers in a bounce-back spot, I focused in on one of the Steelers’ offensive weapons here, as well as a Browns defender in this game, and will look to back the trend of the underdog Steelers showing up with a better offensive performance than many expect.
Best bets
To begin, Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson has a team high 22 targets through two weeks. I consider Johnson to be one of the most underrated pass catchers in the league, and with Mitch Trubisky still targeting him at a strong rate, he is in a good spot to surpass his total of 54.5 receiving yards in this one. Johnson is one of only three wide receivers in the league who have a greater than 30% target share in both games this season, joining the likes of Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown. This target share has led to games with seven receptions for 55 yards and six receptions for 57 yards, with the 50-yard mark feeling like his floor this season. The Browns do have a solid secondary, but regardless of matchup, Johnson has proved he’s a No. 1 option in this league and will in turn see consistent volume on a week-to-week basis.
A season ago, Johnson had 28 targets against the Browns over two games, and although this game won’t be a shootout, expect Trubisky to rely on his top option on a lot of passing downs. Johnson has proven his consistency with an NFL-leading 24 games with 10+ targets since 2020, and although his target share is great, it’s concerning that just three of his 112 yards this season have come after the catch. Maybe this is a sign of the state of the Steelers offense, but to only have three yards after the catch on 13 receptions is an unheard of figure, and he’s due for positive regression there. I know targets don’t always result in yards, but his reception prop number is overly juiced at 4.5 and I would much rather project him to break a catch for significant yardage rather than paying upwards of -175 juice on his over 4.5 receptions. I like his chances of breaking out in this spot and I expect the Steelers to find a way to get him the ball in space where he can make a play after the catch.
Diontae Johnson over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) BetMGM 1u
For the second prop of the night, I got a little creative and looked into the defensive tackles market. Browns linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is coming off an eight-tackle performance against the Jets a week ago and has a line of 3.5 tackles for Thursday Night Football. The over on BetMGM is juiced to -140, but because it may be his last week at this 3.5 number, I am more than comfortable playing this for a half unit. Similar to a lot of you, the tackles prop market is relatively new to me, but in the experience I do have betting it, the value is most definitely there and the market is not saturated.
According to Pro Football Focus, Owusu-Koramoah is currently the highest-rated linebacker in the NFL, and although these rankings shouldn’t be taken as bible, he is a very solid all-around linebacker. Playing 81% of the defensive snaps through two weeks, Owusu-Koramoah has solidified himself on this Browns defense, and with the Steelers expected to commit to getting the ground game going tonight, he will be in a great spot to rack up some stats. Consider this play a feeler into the defensive props and if everything goes as planned, we will definitely continue to dive into these spots if they present value as the season rolls on.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah over 3.5 tackles (-140) BetMGM .5u