Super Bowl Week 2 odds update: Colts, Broncos free-falling

Week 2 started off with a bang at Arrowhead Stadium, where Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs snuck out with a win despite Justin Herbert’s late-game heroics, which resulted in the Los Angeles Chargers covering the 3.5-point spread. Just as everyone expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars shutout the Indianapolis Colts 24-0, Joe Flacco and the New York Jets pulled off a miracle win in Cleveland, Tua Tagovailoa led the Miami Dolphins to a huge comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens, and Cooper Rush led the Dallas Cowboys to a big win over Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Maybe the AFC isn’t as good as most thought.

Super Bowl odds

There has already been some major movement within the Super Bowl market after the Sunday slate. The Buffalo Bills – who host the Tennessee Titans on Monday night – are holding steady as the favorite, which will probably be the case for most of this season. There were some disastrous losses in Week 2 though, and the market has reflected that. Indianapolis, Denver, and Las Vegas all saw its Super Bowl odds lengthen drastically compared to last week. The San Francisco 49ers won, but lost quarterback Trey Lance for the year with a gruesome leg injury, which sheds light on just how important the resigning of Jimmy Garoppolo was for this team.

Odds courtesy of Fanduel:

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San Francisco 49ers (+1800)

The San Francisco 49ers might be the only team to lose their starting quarterback, yet see their odds to win the Super Bowl shorten. Last Monday, coming off of a bad loss to the Bears, the 49ers were 22-1 to win it all. Today, less than 24 hours after starting quarterback Trey Lance suffered a season-ending leg injury, the 49ers are 18-1. Garoppolo has proven success in this league, leading the 49ers to an NFC Championship appearance last year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams. Despite missing their starting running back, Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco's run game looked strong, racking up 189 yards. 

With Jimmy G expected to be at the helm for the remainder of the 2022 campaign, expect a major gameplan adjustment from one of the best coaches in the league, Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers will shift from a playbook centered around a mobile, dynamic quarterback in Lance, to a run-heavy, more balanced offense with Jimmy G. This is a well-coached team with a top-tier defense, being led by a quarterback who knows what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. Although Lance’s injury is detrimental to the 49ers’ long term organizational success, it could be exactly what this team needs to have a legitimate run at the Super Bowl in 2020. George Kittle is expected to return this week against Denver in primetime, which will also provide a big boost to the offense. Kittle’s health is paramount to Shanahan’s scheme being successful. It’s possible the 49ers go on a run, and their odds only shorten as the season wears on.

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Indianapolis Colts (+3700)

Historically speaking, Indianapolis always struggles in Jacksonville, last winning there in 2014. This was one of the largest line moves of the week, with the Colts going from 24-1 last week, to 37-1 today. Matt Ryan looks like a shell of his former self, going 16/30 with three interceptions and no touchdowns against a bad Jaguars team. The Colts were missing their No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman, but in no way does that constitute being shut out. Reigning rushing yards leader Jonathan Taylor only saw nine touches in the loss – a true head-scratcher, especially when you consider Ryan’s struggles on the day.

Indy has only managed to score two touchdowns through two weeks, against a pair of weaker AFC South opponents. Ryan has now thrown four interceptions through two weeks, while Pittman’s quad injury tends to be the type of affliction that can linger throughout a season. The Colts host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 in what feels like a must-win already against one of the league’s best teams.

Denver Broncos (+2200)

Nathaniel Hackett is in over his head. Broncos fans were booing loudly yesterday, as well as counting down the play clock before each snap to help the offense avoid any more delay of game penalties. They’ve taken four already this season, twice as many as they had in the entire 2021 season. The poor clock management has also cost them a few timeouts, while it took three points off the board in their nervy win over the Houston Texans. Russell Wilson went just 6-of-19 passing in the first half, while the offense could only muster 16 points, as their red zone struggles continued. Much like the Colts, the Broncos have arguably played the two easiest games on their schedule through the first two weeks and have looked lost.

Hackett even managed to take a too many men on the field penalty, and had to burn a timeout on a punt because they only had 10 men on the field. The missing player was the punter. The Broncos’ odds lengthened from 19-1 post Week 1, to 22-1 today. Hackett isn’t winning with gameplans like yesterday’s, especially when in a tough AFC West.