The Hammer Monday NFL Divisional Playoffs - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Wild Card Weekend
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

49ers–Eagles: This Told Us More About Philly Than San Francisco

San Francisco survived Philadelphia despite losing George Kittle to a season-ending Achilles injury. Brock Purdy made a handful of quality throws, Kyle Shanahan dialed up some nice concepts, and while the run game struggled for long stretches, the 49ers still posted a 52% overall success rate and 55% success on early-down passes. That’s a functional offensive performance under difficult circumstances.

But the bigger takeaway isn’t about the Niners — it’s about the Eagles. San Francisco likely doesn’t win this game if Philadelphia’s offense doesn’t once again collapse under its own weight.

Per Jon Ledyard, Jalen Hurts was pressured on just 6 of 37 dropbacks — a 16% pressure rate — with an average time to throw of 4.37 seconds. That’s an absurdly clean pocket environment. And yet, the Eagles offense still went nowhere. A team simply cannot look that broken when the opposing pass rush is a non-factor.

Philadelphia failed to complete a single pass over 15 air yards against a Niners pass defense that has been bad all season and generated virtually no pressure in this game. That’s not about matchup or variance — it’s a structural offensive problem. This game confirmed everything we already knew about the Eagles offense, far more than it told us anything new about San Francisco.

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Is This the Bills’ Year?

Buffalo handled Jacksonville with a solid EPA advantage, helped by two Trevor Lawrence interceptions — one of them tipped. On paper, this was a tricky matchup for the Bills because their run defense is legitimately shaky, and the Jaguars exploited that, running at a 57% success rate.

What’s interesting is how Jacksonville chose to attack. They ran efficiently, yet still leaned pass-heavy: 27 early-down passes vs just 17 early-down runs. It’s fair to wonder whether a more run-centric approach could have changed the outcome, because Buffalo couldn’t stop it.

Here’s the key point going forward: no other remaining AFC playoff team has Jacksonville’s kind of run-game diversity. Denver doesn’t. Pittsburgh doesn’t. Houston doesn’t. New England doesn’t. And Buffalo’s pass defense is getting healthier with the potential return of Maxwell Hairston and Terrel Bernard.

The Bills’ biggest defensive weakness might not get meaningfully stressed again until the Super Bowl. And when your quarterback is basically a cyborg, that’s often enough. Quietly, this might be Buffalo’s year.

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The Rams Defense Is Becoming a Concern

Chris Shula deserves credit. He’s done impressive work all season with one of the cheapest defenses in the league, featuring only two former first-round picks — one of whom is already on his second team. For the first three months, the Rams defense punched far above its weight.

Lately, though, the cracks are showing.

Against Carolina, the Rams generated a 45% pressure rate on Bryce Young (per Next Gen Stats) — and still allowed the Panthers to move the ball and generate chunk plays. That disconnect shows up in the broader metrics: since Week 13, the Rams defense ranks 20th in EPA/play, but top -10 in success rate, despite playing four games against Carolina and Arizona.

The concern is the secondary. Injuries haven’t helped, but even accounting for that, the talent level on the back end may simply not be good enough. If pressure alone can’t consistently break offenses — even weak ones — the margin disappears quickly in January.

That puts even more weight on Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. If the defense can’t hold up, the Rams’ playoff ceiling depends entirely on offensive perfection — and that’s a dangerous way to live.

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Injuries We are Watching for Divisional Weekend
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), RB Ty Johnson (Injured Inactive), WR Gabe Davis (Season Over), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Maxwell Hairston (Injured Inactive), S Jordan Poyer (Left Game), S Damar Hamlin (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - OT Ozzy Trapilo (Season Over), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Injured Inactive), DT Andrew Billings (Left Game), LB T.J. Edwards (Season Over), CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Injured Inactive), OT Braxton Jones (Working back from I.R.)
Denver (Returning from Bye) - DT John Franklin-Myers, LB Dre Greenlaw, S P.J. Locke
Houston - TBD Playing Tonight
L.A Rams - WR Jordan Whittington (Injured Inactive), TE Terrance Ferguson (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Injured Inactive), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Left Game)
New England - NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Gonzalez (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - TBD Playing Tonight
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), TE George Kittle (Season Over), LB Dee Winters (Injured Inactive), LB Luke Gifford (Injured Inactive), S Ji'Ayir Brown (Left Game)
Seattle (Returning from Bye) - OT Charles Cross, S Coby Bryant, TE Elijah Arroyo (Working back from I.R.)

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