The Hammer Monday Week 11/12 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 11
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. The Eagles Defense Is Back

The Eagles just put together back-to-back defensive masterclasses. They clamped the Packers on Monday Night Football, then completely suffocated Detroit, holding the Lions to six points with 10 pass breakups. Amon-Ra St. Brown finished with two catches on 12 targets. From the broadcast angle, every Jared Goff dropback looked like a chore — tight coverage, bodies in throwing lanes, no clean answers. It genuinely felt like Philadelphia knew exactly what was coming.

This wasn’t the case earlier in the year. The Eagles dealt with injuries along the defensive line, were thin on the edge, and Nakobe Dean missed the first six games. Without pressure, the coverage cracked.

So what changed?
 

• They traded for Jaelan Phillips.
• Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean returned from IR.
• And Vic Fangio is fully in his bag again.

This front — Phillips, Jalen Carter, Moro Ojomo/Jordan Davis, Smith — is nasty. They might have the best linebacker group in the league with Dean, Jihaad Campbell, and Zack Baun. And in the secondary, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean look like true difference-makers.

With everyone healthy, this is an elite defense again. Fangio got the band back together — and it shows.

2. The Seahawks Defense Is Incredible

Seattle lost the NFC game of the year to the Rams by two points, missing a potential game-winner — and that was despite losing the turnover battle 1–4. Sam Darnold’s four interceptions were the headline, but the real story was the Seahawks defense.

Seattle won first downs 26–12, largely because their defense completely choked out Los Angeles after the opening quarter. The Rams had a turnover on downs in the red zone, then were effectively erased until gifted points via Darnold’s mistakes.

The Rams’ three touchdowns came on drives of:

• 3 yards (off an INT)
• 25 yards (off an INT)
• and one legitimate scoring drive that started on their own side of the field.
   

Matthew Stafford went 15/28 for 130 yards — that’s domination.

If Darnold throws three picks instead of four, the Seahawks win. That’s how well the defense played.

And both defensive coordinators were in full “we don’t care about your personnel, we’ll play our stuff” mode, refusing to be manipulated into base. It was a fun schematic battle — and Seattle’s unit showed again why it’s one of the best defenses in the league.

3. Quick Hitters

Shedeur Sanders: rough debut.

It’s never easy for a rookie to be thrown in mid-game against a competent defense, but this was still bad. Sanders didn’t know what he was looking at — it was an abomination of an NFL debut.

The Bears keep stealing wins.

Another week, another underwhelming passing performance. Chicago averaged –0.007 EPA per dropback and 40.5% success, continuing their season-long theme: below-average passing efficiency, but just enough timely plays (and luck) to sneak by.

The Falcons are in rough shape.

Losing Michael Penix and Drake London is tough, Darnell Mooney left the game as well. Their passing defense gave up 440 net passing yards to Bryce Young and their offense is getting decimated. The Rams might soon own a top-8 pick from the Falcons.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 12

Rob:
Seattle -12.5 vs. Tennessee

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Pittsburgh/Chicago Over 44.5
Minnesota/Green Bay Under 42.5 (-105)
Indianapolis +3.5 (-105) vs. Kansas City
Jacksonville/Arizona Over 47
New Orleans +2.5 vs. Atlanta

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 12 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 12
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Jonah Williams (Injured Inactive), OT Kelvin Beachum (Left Game), EDGE Baron Browning (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), CB Will Johnson (Injured Inactive), CB Garrett Williams (Left Game), RB Emari Demercado (Left Game)
Atlanta - QB Michael Penix Jr. (Season likely Over), WR Drake London (Out/Potentially Weeks), WR Darnell Mooney (Banged Up), OG Matthew Bergeron (Injured Inactive), EDGE Leonard Floyd (Injured Inactive), DT Zach Harrison (Injured Inactive), CB Mike Hughes (Injured Inactive), CB Dee Alford (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - WR Rashod Bateman (Injured Inactive), CB Marlon Humphrey (Injured Inactive), RB Justice Hill (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), LB Shaq Thompson (Injured Inactive), WR Mecole Hardman (Left Game)
Carolina - QB Bryce Young (Banged Up), LB Trevin Wallace (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game), CB Jaylon Johnson (Working back from I.R.)
Cincinnati - WR Ja'Marr Chase (Potential Suspension for Spitting), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Cam Sample (Left Game), CB Cam Taylor-Britt (Left Game), OG Jalen Rivers (Left Game), RB Samaje Perine (Injured Inactive), QB Joe Burrow (Working back from I.R.)
Cleveland - QB Dillon Gabriel (Left Game), EDGE Alex Wright (Injured Inactive), OT Jack Conklin (Left Game), OT Cam Robinson (Left Game)
Dallas - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Denver (Bye Week) - CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jonah Elliss (Injured Inactive), LB Alex Singleton (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - WR Kalif Raymond (Left Game), S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), CB Terrion Arnold (Injured Inactive), CB D.J. Reed (Working back from I.R.), EDGE Marcus Davenport (Working Back from I.R.), EDGE Josh Pascal (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Banged Up), RB Josh Jacobs (Left Game), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), LB Quay Walker (Left Game), CB Nate Hobbs (Injured Inactive), K Brandon McManus (Injured Inactive)
Houston - QB C.J. Stroud (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Pitre (Injured Inactive), OG Ed Ingram (Injured Inactive), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis (Return from Bye) - EDGE Samson Ebukam, EDGE Tyquan Lewis
Jacksonville - WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Anton Harrison (Injured Inactive), RB Bhayshul Tuten (Left Game), TE Hunter Long (Injured Inactive), EDGE Travon Walker (Left Game), CB Jourdan Lewis (Injured Inactive), CB Greg Newsome II (Left Game), TE Brenton Strange (Working back from I.R.)
Kansas City - RB Isiah Pacheco (Injured Inactive), OG Kingsley Suamataia (Left Game)
Las Vegas - TBD (Playing Tonight)
L.A Chargers (Bye Week) - OT Bobby Hart (Injured Inactive), RB Kimani Vidal (Left Game)
L.A Rams - TE Tyler Higbee (Left Game), CB Quentin Lake (Left Game)
Miami (Bye Week) - RB De'Von Achane (Banged Up), CB Rasul Douglas (Injured Inactive), CB JuJu Brents (Season Over), OT Austin Jackson (Working back from I.R.)
Minnesota - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Injured Inactive), C Ryan Kelly (Working back from I.R.)
New England - RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Injured Inactive), WR Stefon Diggs (Banged Up), WR Kayshon Boutte (Injured Inactive), LB Christian Elliss (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans (Return from Bye) - OT Taliese Fuaga
New York Giants - QB Jaxson Dart (Injured Inactive), WR Darius Slayton (Injured Inactive), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Paulson Adebo (Injured Inactive), S Tyler Nubin (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - CB Azareye'h Thomas (Injured Inactive), EDGE Braiden McGregor (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (4-6 Weeks), C Cam Jurgens (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - QB Aaron Rodgers (Potentially long term), RB Jaylen Warren (Banged up), EDGE Alex Highsmith (Injured Inactive), LB Cole Holcomb (Injured Inactive), CB Darius Slay (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - LB Tatum Bethune (Left Game), K Eddy Pineiro (Left Game)
Seattle - WR Tory Horton (Injured Inactive), OG Grey Zabel (Left Game)
Tampa Bay - WR Chris Godwin Jr. (Injured Inactive), RB Bucky Irving (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Bredeson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Injured Inactive), EDGE Markees Watts (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game)
Tennessee - WR Calvin Ridley (Season Over), WR Chimere Dike (Left Game), WR Elic Ayomanor (Banged Up), S Xavier Woods (Injured Inactive)
Washington (Bye Week) - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), WR Terry McLaurin (Injured Inactive), WR Treylon Burks (Injured Inactive), WR Jaylin Lane (Left Game), S Will Harris (Working back from I.R.)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) There’s a league-wide defense epidemic, masked by a surge in goaltending. There have been 111.5 goals saved above expected so far this season (-111.5 goals scored above expected) compared to minus -2.8 goals saved above expected at this same stage last season. Naturally, that would lend us to think scoring is way down, but it isn’t. There have been 6.12 goals per game this season (excluding the “goal” awarded for a shootout win) compared to 6.15 at this point last season. So where is the disconnect? Well, chance creation is way up. Or, in other words, team defense is way down. Last season, through the first 286 games, teams were allowing an average of 3.16 xG/60 (all situations). This season, through 296 games, that number has risen to 3.38. Scoring chances and high-danger chances have also risen considerably, but a drastic uptick in league-wide goaltending has prevented a significant increase in goals per game. There are 26 teams who currently have a positive GSAx, compared to just 14 at this stage last season. That’s absurd. So what gives? It’s likely both regress to the mean, but I have more faith in goaltending/scoring doing so than I do team defense, so I’m certainly going to watch for a possible league-wide uptick in scoring – something to be mindful of in the coming weeks.

2.) Let’s see which teams have benefited the most, and least, from this early season trend. Here are the top-seven and bottom-seven teams in the NHL thus far in Goals Scored Above Expected + Goals Saved Above Expected (all strengths):

The only surprise here to me is the Wings, who are off to a great start that could have been even better if not for a lousy PDO. A top-three finish in the Atlantic feels very attainable for a Detroit team that hasn’t made the playoffs in nine seasons.

3.) There are 24 teams in the league separated by just six points. Parity is at an all-time high and nowhere is that more reflected than in the amount of three-point games. Through 296 games this season there have been 58 overtime wins and 27 shootout wins. Through 292 games last season there were 47 and 12. That’s 28.7% of games that have required more than 60 minutes so far this campaign, up from 20.2% at this stage in 2024.

4.) This weekend was a bloodbath on the injury front which sucks for the league but opens plenty of betting opportunities. The market hasn’t been very reactive to injuries this season outside the big names. Earlier in the year we had a Lucas Raymond injury announcement and the market didn’t move. If it doesn’t budge for Raymond, it certainly won’t for lesser players who are still worth something. Knowing which injuries matter, and how much, goes a long way.

Players injured this weekend: Jack Hughes and Cody Glass (NJ), Charlie McAvoy and Viktor Arvidsson (BOS), Drew Doughty (LAK), Thomas Harley (DAL), John Carlson (WSH), Mikael Granlund (ANA), Conor Garland (VAN), Michael Kesselring (BUF), Kaapo Kakko (SEA), Will Borgen (NYR), Kirby Dach (MTL), Brandon Carlo (TOR), Nick Foligno (CHI), Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN), and Jesperi Kotkaniemi (CAR).

We also had a wealth of game-time decisions over the past couple days, including Seth Jarvis, Mats Zuccarello, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman, and Frank Nazar, while Zach Hyman and Rasmus Dahlin were among those who returned the ice. It’s starting to feel a bit like the NBA, navigating the market with all these injuries.

5.) I don’t think Craig Berube is as close to being fired as people think. Leafs fans have understandably been begging for it, but there seems to be this sentiment out there that it’s imminent. I’m almost certain it’s not, even after five-straight losses to knock them below .500. This is not a question of whether he should. That answer is obvious. Since Berube took over at the start of last season, the Leafs rank 27th in CF% and 22nd in xGF% at five-on-five, winning the division last season thanks to elite finishing and goaltending. Regardless how you feel about the roster, coaching is obviously an issue, but Berube’s seat is lukewarm, at best. They were a game away from beating the back-to-back champions in the second round last season, and while things have gone south in a hurry this year, there are too many built-in excuses for it to fall on the coach. Goaltending has regressed (shocker), Chris Tanev’s played just eight games, Mitch Marner is gone, all of Brad Treliving’s summer moves have flopped, Anthony Stolarz and Auston Matthews are hurt now… the list goes on. Things are bad right now, but they will need to get a lot worse before MLSE CEO Keith Pelley considers a change behind the bench. The Leafs host St. Louis and Columbus this week before embarking on a six-game, two-week road trip. If they lose both home games this week I still think he survives, given the injuries, and then you’re not going to fire him in the middle of a long road trip barring a catastrophe, which takes us into the second week of December. If he eventually does get fired, it’ll be after things have got so bad that it will be too late for the team to turn it around. 

6.) Injuries are piling up in Montreal. Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle, and Patrik Laine are all out for the foreseeable future. The loss of Guhle has been a real blow on the back end, but the big concern now is up front where the Habs are suddenly dealing with a cluster of injuries. Newhook (6 goals) and Dach (5 goals) were providing a healthy chunk of the team’s secondary scoring. Without them, this forward group thins out in a hurry. The current top six (Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky, Bolduc-Kapanen-Demidov) has 37 goals this season. The bottom six, as currently constructed, has five in 63 combined games played. The second line has 14, but it’s tough to ask your 19-year-old electrifying winger to carry a line with a couple of 22-year-olds in Zach Bolduc and Oliver Kapanen. The Habs remain atop the Atlantic Division in points percentage despite an 0-3 week, but that’s not going to last long if they don’t bring in reinforcements. It’s on GM Kent Hughes to help his team through this. The Canadiens are still not “through” their rebuild and into the contention stage, but they’re far enough along where making the playoffs should be an expectation, not a hope. They’re well-positioned to this season, but things can change in a hurry with how congested the standings are. With a ton of assets and cap space, there’s no reason to sit idly by and hope for the best. Hughes should already be on the phone looking for a veteran middle-six forward. The question is: who? There are a handful of guys I’d be asking about if I were Hughes, and I grouped them in a few different buckets.

The first bucket are the more unlikely targets. Mason Marchment and Kiefer Sherwood are both pending UFAs who I believe are likely to be moved at one point this season, but Seattle is winning games for now and Vancouver won’t be ready to sell off this early, so while both are possibilities, I think you’d have to be patient here and that’s not something the Habs should be willing to do. The other is Andrei Kuzmenko, who was a healthy scratch for the Kings in their last two games. Another pending UFA, he has just three goals in 17 games so far and seems to have fallen out of favor. The Kings could very well want to part with his contract to free up some money to shore up the back end, especially in light of Drew Doughty’s injury. He’s the likeliest of the “unlikely” targets, but I put him here because I don’t think the Kings are ready to give up just yet after Kuz had 17 points in 22 games with L.A. last season and looked like a great fit on that top line.

Next, we have the “big-game hunting” targets: Ryan O’Reilly and Nazem Kadri. These are more complicated deals because so much comes into play, and each of them are likely to have a lot of suitors. There’s a big demand for centers out there, so I can’t imagine the Preds and Flames will be in a rush to move these guys. That being said, sometimes it’s nice to get business done early. Both are signed beyond this season, but an injury would make them close to impossible to move this year. A big part of the allure of acquiring ROR is getting him for a season and a half. If you negate that, the return diminishes considerably. I don’t know how realistic adding either of these guys in November is, but it’s on the table, and either would be a welcome addition to play between Bolduc and Demidov on the second line.

The third and final bucket are the most realistic targets: Michael Bunting and Erik Haula. I think if you put a call in on either – both pending UFAs on a bad team – you could get a deal done relatively quickly. Neither will wow you, but Bunting is a 40-50 point player who would fit in seamlessly alongside Kapanen and Demidov on line two. Haula is more of a 35-40 point player, but he’s a great faceoff guy and a respectable veteran who can play up and down the lineup. In this case I’d put him between Bolduc and Demidov, moving Kapanen down to play with some more experienced and responsible linemates in Gallagher and Veleno.

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