The Hammer Monday Week 14/15 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 14
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

AFC SOUTH REPORT

Texans at Kansas City

Houston’s defense is simply absurd right now. They smothered Kansas City, and Patrick Mahomes once again struggled badly against man coverage. Kamari Lassiter — take a bow.

But two things can be true: Nick Caley isn’t it, and C.J. Stroud still left a ton on the field even in a game where he created multiple first downs out of hopeless situations. This could have been 27–10. Stroud underthrew a walk-in TD to Nico Collins, forcing a field goal. Later, Stroud overthrew wide-open receivers on 3rd & 15 and again on a deep crossing route in KC territory. Caley had no answers for Spagnuolo’s blitz packages — despite everyone knowing what was coming.

Even so, the Texans sit in the final wild card spot and are just one game behind Jacksonville for the 3-seed. Who scares you in an AFC playoff bracket? Drake Maye, and Josh Allen on a good day. That’s about it.

COLTS

Speechless. They’re collapsing out of the playoffs, Daniel Jones (torn Achilles) won’t resemble his former self before 2027, and they’re out their next two first-round picks. It’s an absolute worst-case scenario — organizationally disastrous.

TITANS

A genuinely stable showing on the road in Cleveland as 3.5-point underdogs. Cam Ward has shown enough to end any draft-season quarterback debates before they begin. Go get yourself a 2027 first-rounder for Jeremiah Smith and build around Ward.

JAGUARS

The difference between Liam Coen and Nick Caley is light years. Trevor Lawrence hit multiple DIMES in the rain — his historical weakness — and kept Jacksonville afloat. They’re a playoff team, but they’ll need more from Lawrence once the postseason hits.

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Battle of the Defenses

There is a clear top three when adjusting for schedule, game state, and weighting recent performance: Houston, Seattle, and Cleveland. And when including all body of work, Houston might be operating at a historically elite level.

They’ve held offenses to:

• 14 points (LAR)
• 15 (SF)
• 12 (BUF)
• 16 (IND)
• 10 (KC)

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — even in down years — combined to go 38/67 for 0 TDs and 5 INTs. The best QB performance against Houston so far has been Sam Darnold. Seattle is right there as well, but Houston has faced the tougher slate. Cleveland rounds out the trio at No. 3.

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The Bucs Offense… What Is Going On?

Since Week 8, Tampa Bay ranks 27th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. Injuries are part of the story — Mike Evans out, OL injuries, Bucky Irving missing games — but not the whole story.

Earlier in the season, the Bucs torched Seattle with Baker Mayfield dealing haymakers. Now, excluding scrambles, they are 30th in EPA/dropback and 29th in dropback success rate since week 8. The pure passing game has collapsed. Emeka Egbuka, once headed for OROY honors, has been invisible and dropped another wide-open touchdown. Baker had a stretch against New Orleans completing 5 of 19 passes. The deep game is gone, and it’s not just injuries — it’s everything.

Will Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan returning Thursday fix it? Unclear.

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Quick Hitters

-The Colts collapse deserves a case study. From 7–1 to possibly 8–9, with no first-round picks in 2025 or 2026 and no reliable QB situation. Most QBs need a full season to regain form after major injury — Rodgers and Cousins being recent examples. Jones may not even be ready for Week 1.

-The Dolphins have quietly stabilized. Since their 9–31 humiliation in Cleveland in Week 7, Miami is 5–1 with an above-average offense and average defense. With PIT, CIN, TB, and possibly a Week 18 against a resting New England, they have a real chance to finish with a winning record after starting 1–6.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 15

Rob:
Atlanta +5.5 vs. Tampa Bay
New Orleans ML +124 vs. Carolina
Detroit/LA Rams Over 53.5

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
New England ML +100 vs. Buffalo
Washington/NY Giants Over 46.5 (-105)
Tennessee/San Francisco Over 43.5 (-115)

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 15 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 15
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Left Game), OG Evan Brown (Personal), DT Walter Nolen (Injured Inactive), DT Bilal Nichols (Left Game), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), RB Emari Demercado (Injured Inactive), RB Trey Benson (Working back from I.R.) 
Atlanta - WR Drake London (Injured Inactive), DT Brandon Dorlus (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jalon Walker (Left Game)
Baltimore - RB Keaton Mitchell (Left Game)
Buffalo - OT Spencer Brown (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Palmer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joey Bosa (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive)
Carolina (Return from Bye) - CB Jaycee Horn, LB Christian Rozeboom, LB Claudin Cherelus, C Cade Mays
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), LB Ruben Hyppolite II (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Injured Inactive), CB Kyler Gordon (Hurt in Warm-ups), CB Nahshon Wright (Banged Up)
Cincinnati - EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Left Game)
Cleveland - OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), OG Wyatt Teller (Injured Inactive), C Ethan Pocic (Season Over), TE David Njoku (Left Game), CB Denzel Ward (Left Game), EDGE Adin Huntington (Injured Inactive), QB Deshaun Watson (Working back from I.R.) 
Dallas - WR CeeDee Lamb (Left Game), OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (Injured Inactive), CB Trevon Diggs (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - DT D.J. Jones (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), S Thomas Harper (Left Game), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), WR Kalif Raymond (Injured Inactive), TE Shane Zylstra (Injured Inactive)
Green Bay - EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), WR Savion Williams (Injured Inactive), RB MarShawn Lloyd (Working back from I.R.)
Houston - RB Nick Chubb (Left Game)
Indianapolis - QB Daniel Jones (Season Over), OT Braden Smith (Left Game), WR Alec Pierce (Left Game), CB Sauce Gardner (Injured Inactive), CB Chris Lammons (Left Game), EDGE Tyquan Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - WR Parker Washington (Injured Inactive), RB Bhayshul Tuten (Left Game), OT Walker Little (Injured Inactive), S Andrew Wingard (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - OG Trey Smith (Injured Inactive), OT Jawaan Taylor (Injured Inactive), OT Wanya Morris (Left Game), CB Trent McDuffie (Left Game)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Left Game), WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Injured Inactive), TE Michael Mayer (Injured Inactive), TE Ian Thomas (Left Game), CB Kyu Blu Kelly (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - TBD (Playing Tonight)
L.A Rams - CB Darious Williams (Injured Inactive), WR Tutu Atwell (Working back from I.R.)
Miami - RB De'Von Achane (Left Game), LB Tyrel Dodson (Left Game)
Minnesota - S Theo Jackson (Injured Inactive)
New England (Return from Bye) - OG Jared Wilson, DT Khyiris Tonga, RB Terrell Jennings
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), OT Taliese Fuaga (Injured Inactive), S Justin Reid (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants (Return from Bye) - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Left Game), QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), LB Francisco Mauigoa (Left Game), CB Azareye'h Thomas (Left Game), S Tony Adams (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Pittsburgh - TE Darnell Washington (Left Game), OT Calvin Anderson (Injured Inactive), OT Andrus Peat (Left Game), DT Derrick Harmon (Injured Inactive), S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco (Return from Bye) - EDGE  Sam Okuayinonu, LB Tatum Bethune, K Eddy Pineiro, FB Kyle Juszczyk
Seattle - TE Elijah Arroyo (Left Game)
Tampa Bay - OT Tristan Wirfs (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Bredeson (Left Game), EDGE Haason Reddick (Left Game), CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive), S Tykee Smith (Left Game), WR Mike Evans (Working back from I.R.), WR Jalen McMillan (Working back from I.R.) 
Tennessee - C Lloyd Cushenberry III (Injured Inactive), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Injured Inactive)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Left Game), TE Zach Ertz (Season Over)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Earlier this week I posted in the Hammer Discord  (if you haven’t joined that yet what are you doing?) asking people for suggestions for this week’s column. I’ll get into a few of those now.

1.) From ryanghall: I know you've been talking about backups a lot. I think this is actionable info for an idiot like me that hasn't followed hockey closely since my Hartford Whalers moved. Would love to see a comparison of backups vs starters and how much a -105 (for example) line should move when each starter is out. That may be giving away the blueprint but I thought I'd ask. I do feel that lines generally move way too much on backup goalies.

The reason I don’t want to list a fixed win-percentage drop from a starter to a backup is because the number is constantly changing. If I posted a “cheat sheet” here, I don’t want someone pulling from it two months – or even two weeks – from now and treating it as if it’s gospel. Goalie evaluation is one of the things I’m quickest to adjust on. What I believe today might be totally different a month from now. If I stayed rigid on my priors, I’d still be fading Calgary every Devin Cooley start, or jamming Montreal unders with Samuel Montembault. Outside of a small group of truly elite, stable goalies, my opinions can shift fast – and that flexibility has served me well. It takes 2000 shot attempts before a goalie’s save percentage even stabilizes, so there’s a lot of fluctuation and goalies go in and out of funks regularly. You want to be aware of them as early as possible.

To Ryan’s last point about the market moving too much on backup goalies, I don’t think a blanket statement applies here. While there are several starter to backup downgrades the market overreacts to, there are also a handful it underreacts to. Mostly of them, though, are handled appropriately… at least at current. The way to capitalize on these is to spot trends quickly and react to them before the market, which tends to wait for larger samples before adjusting. We’re into December and Blackhawks overs still aren’t being bet when we get “unexpected” (as in non-b2b) Arvid Soderblom starts. The gap between him and Spencer Knight is massive, and has been glaringly obvious for over a month, but we’re still not seeing it reflected enough in the market. That’s one of several examples. If you can be quick to spot them and react, you will be rewarded in the long run.

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2.) From Bpositive: How do you give players a value towards the moneyline?

There are several elements that go into this, and everyone’s answer will differ to some extent. I believe the more you incorporate, the better you’ll be able to determine a player’s value. I’m trying to not just gauge a player’s value to the moneyline, but also to the total. How much do they contribute at both ends? What role do they fill for the team? Are they impactful on any special teams units? What sort of minutes do they eat? I’m looking at any and all data to try and answer all these questions as best I can: ice time, quality of competition, individual shot attempts for and against, shot attempt assists, individual expected goals for and against, takeaways, giveaways, blocks, hits, faceoff percentage, offensive and defensive zone start percentage. That’s all five-on-five data, but I’m also pulling a lot of that for special teams as well. By grabbing all this you can adequately rank players to gauge their impact in all facets of the game. In terms of being able to assign an exact value to a player’s impact to the moneyline and total, there are both technical and subjective elements to it. Some bettors value team data much more and will assign a lot less weight to player absences than others. I am not one of those people. The market as a whole will typically only react to roughly 15% of players in the league being in/out. My number is closer to 50%. There are other factors to consider as well, like cluster injuries and how that can have something of a compounding effect. You have to decide for yourself how much you think this stuff matters, and that’s where “ball knowledge” comes in. At the end of the day it is subjective, not an exact science.

On Thursday I bet some over 5.5 in Rangers-Sens, partly because Artem Zub was out. The market will never move on a guy like Zub, but he logs a lot of tough minutes against the other team’s top offensive players, does so effectively, and is a key figure on the penalty kill. To many he’s worth nothing to the side or total. To me he’s worth close to a percent (around five cents) towards the over. How I arrive at that number is subjective. The NHL market is the most inefficient of the “efficient” markets. It’s also not the most competitive. If you can confidently and effectively evaluate players and their impact on a game, you will find success betting those opinions.

To attempt to put a bow on the first two answers, Saturday’s Islanders-Lightning game serves as a perfect, all-encompassing example. During morning skate we learned Nikita Kucherov would miss the game and Jonas Johansson was starting. The market always responds more to goaltending, so the over ticked. I fundamentally disagreed. The absence of Kucherov had a greater impact on the total to me than Johansson starting, especially given the opponent. In this case I believed the market failed to react appropriately and I ended up with a big position on under 6 -101. This also speaks to my earlier point about the market being slow to adjust to goaltending trends. Johansson was an auto-over bet for a while. From 2021-2024 he had a minus-20.29 GSAx. He started the 2024-25 season with a minus-5.98 GSAx in four starts but proceeded to clean things up drastically from that point on. The shift happened swiftly. He had three really strong starts in a row and settled into a bit of a groove after that. The market still aggressively steamed Tampa overs all season despite him posting a 6.47 GSAx over his next 15 starts to close out the year. Through nine starts this season he’s essentially neutral. He’s a big downgrade from Vasilevskiy but he’s no longer a sieve and the market doesn’t seem to care that he’s been a reliable backup for full calendar year now.

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3.) There was a question from a Discord member about the Panthers and Oilers, but I will save it for next week because I need to talk about how annoyed I am with the Boston Bruins. I don’t get how this team keeps winning. As currently constructed, with Charlie McAvoy and David Pastrnak out injured, this is a bottom five roster in the NHL, and it might honestly be bottom three. They have 25-year-old career AHLer Alexander Steeves, who has played as many games this season as he had in his four-year career before this, on the first line. They are getting an absolutely generational run from Morgan Geekie who has 44 goals in his last 64 games after scoring 50 in his first 299. Someone piss test this guy. They’re 30th in the league in expected goal share and 27th in Corsi percentage. They are dead-last in the NHL in expected goal share since the Montreal game on November 15 (the day Charlie McAvoy got hurt) yet are 6-5 over that 11-game stretch. It must be a sky-high PDO then, right? Wrong. They’re not even top 10 in shooting percentage or save percentage at five-on-five this season. That they are sitting tied for first in the Atlantic with a 17-13 record literally defies logic.

For the first time in a while, they actually took money on Saturday against the Devils. I faded that money, still lost a few cents of CLV, and eventually my bet. Is the market just giving in? I also bet against them on Thursday and lost – another game where the Bruins had under a 40% expected goal share at five-on-five. I’m starting to lose my appetite for fading this team. Pastrnak is on his way back soon, and McAvoy isn’t far behind him. Jeremy Swayman, Elias Lindholm, and Viktor Arvidsson have rediscovered their past form. I’ve continuously said this is not a playoff team and I still believe they aren’t, but my confidence is beginning to waver.

Up next they get the Blues in their first game back from a road trip, a Jets team that’s having players-only meetings every other night because they can’t win a hockey game, and then the Wild in the second half of a back-to-back. Maybe this is the week I give in, too?

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4.) Injury Report

New injuries this week:

Scott Wedgewood, COL (day-to-day, expected back next game); Ilya Lyubushkin, DAL (day-to-day); Lian Bischel, DAL (6-8 weeks); Tyler Seguin, DAL (torn ACL, likely out for season); Jonathan Drouin, NYI (day-to-day); Shane Pinto, OTT (Dec 5, minimum two weeks); Artem Zub, OTT (day-to-day); Lars Eller, OTT (day-to-day); Tyson Foerster, PHI (Dec 2, 2-3 months); Evgeni Malkin, PIT (missed Sunday’s game, day-to-day); Jordan Kyrou, STL (7-10 days “at most”); Joseph Woll, TOR (Dec 4, “hopefully” a week); Logan Cooley, UTA (day-to-day, questionable for Monday night); Elias Pettersson, VAN (needs MRI, no update yet); Ryan Leonard, WSH (Dec 6, “extended period of time”); Charlie Lindgren, WSH (Dec 6, will miss “at least a week”); John Carlson, WSH (Dec 2, could be back on Thursday).

Previously injured, could be back this week:

Lukas Dostal, ANA (initial 2-3 week timeline, Friday is two weeks); David Pastrnak, BOS (will travel with team on road trip); Charlie McAvoy, BOS (will travel with team on road trip); Jaccob Slavin, CAR (skating in non-contact jersey, said he’s back soon); Nick Foligno, CHI (initial four-week timeline takes him to Saturday); Boone Jenner, CBJ (out for current road trip, could be back as early as Thursday); Thomas Harley, DAL (out since Nov 15, likely back Tuesday); Jake Walman, EDM (out since Nov 20, expected back Tuesday); Jack Roslovic, EDM (initial two-week timeline takes him to Saturday); Marco Rossi, MIN (out since Nov 11, nearing return); Brett Pesce, NJD (out since Oct 26, Keefe said “weeks” away on Nov 30, but he’s ramping up his skating); Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI (out since Nov 22, full practice participant over the weekend); Rasmus Ristolainen, PHI (yet to play this season, expected back within the next week or two); Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL (IR, earliest he can return is Thursday); Nikita Kucherov, TBL (back tonight in Toronto); Brayden Point, TBL (out since Nov 22, back tonight in Toronto); Olli Maatta, UTA (IR on Nov 27, timeline unclear but sounded short-term); Nils Hoglander, VAN (yet to play this season, targeting a return on Thursday); Thatcher Demko, VAN (yet to play this season, targeting a return on Thursday).

Still out:

Petr Mrazek, ANA (2-3 weeks as of Dec 3); Michael Kesselring, BUF (Nov 15, “weeks”); Mathieu Olivier, CBJ (Nov 24, week-to-week); Kasperi Kapanen, EDM (Nov 29, “several weeks”); Matthew Tkachuk, FLA (resumed skating, returning in December); Aleksander Barkov, FLA (Sep 25, 7-9 months); Dmitry Kulikov, FLA (Oct 9, five months); Marcus Foligno, MIN (Nov 26, still not skating); Patrik Laine, MTL (Oct 16, 3-4 months); Kaiden Guhle, MTL (Nov 14, 8-10 weeks); Alex Newhook, MTL (Nov 14, four months); Kirby Dach, MTL (Nov 15, 4-6 weeks); Jonathan Kovacevic, NJD (out indefinitely, yet to play this season); Jack Hughes, NJD (Nov 14, eight weeks); Evgenii Dadonov, NJD (Nov 26, out “for a period of time”); Kyle Palmieri, NYI (Nov 28, 6-8 months); Alex Romanov, NYI (Nov 22, 5-6 months); Adam Fox, NYR (Nov 29, week-to-week); Thomas Chabot, OTT (out “at least another 10 days” as of Dec 4); Rickard Rakell, PIT (out since Oct 25, updated 3-4 week timeline as of Dec 3); Matt Murray, SEA (Nov 18, six weeks); Jaden Schwartz, SEA (Nov 28, six weeks); Jimmy Snuggerud, STL (Dec 1, minimum six weeks); Alexey Toropchenko, STL (Dec 1, week-to-week); Ryan McDonagh, TB (Nov 8, still week-to-week as of Dec 5); Erik Cernak, TB (Nov 22, still week-to-week as of Dec 5); Chris Tanev, TOR (Nov 1, getting closer but return isn’t imminent); Anthony Stolarz, TOR (Nov 11, no timeline and still not skating); Brandon Carlo, TOR (Nov 13, suffered a setback and will require surgery); Filip Chytil, VAN (Oct 11, continues to skate but no timeline); Derek Forbort, VAN (Oct 11, still no clear timeline); Adin Hill, VGK (Oct 20, out “a few months”); William Karlsson, VGK (Nov 8, week-to-week, moved to LTIR); Pierre-Luc Dubois, WSH (Oct 31, 3-4 months); Connor Hellebuyck, WPG (Nov 21, 4-6 weeks).



***NOTE: Starting next week, "Expected Goals, Actual Opinions" will appear in the Wednesday newsletter. ****

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