Suuma's Takeaways from Week 15
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
The Best Team in the NFC South Might Miss the Playoffs
With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back, Tampa Bay still has time to make a push over the final three weeks. But as things stand right now, there’s a real argument that Atlanta is the best team in the NFC South — and that team might still miss the postseason.
The Falcons’ 29–28 comeback win in Tampa tells the story. Down 28–14 early in the fourth quarter, Atlanta rallied — but the more important point is that it never should’ve come down to a walk-off field goal. The Falcons committed 19 penalties for 125 yards, the most in a single game in nine years. David Sills dropped a wide-open walk-in touchdown, turning that drive into zero points. A Bijan Robinson fumble directly led to a short-field Buccaneers touchdown. Tampa was fortunate to even be ahead.
When you look at the full body of work, the gap between these teams is razor thin. And with Kirk Cousins under center, there’s a strong case that Atlanta is currently the most complete team in the division — even if the standings don’t end up reflecting it.
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The Packers’ Season Is on Life Support
It’s hard to imagine a more disastrous afternoon for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Green Bay blew a 23–14 lead in Denver, losing 34–26 — but the score was secondary to the damage. They lost four key players, each with uncertain timelines.
Micah Parsons tore his ACL. Evan Williams went down with a knee injury. Right tackle Zach Tom injured his knee. Christian Watson hurt his shoulder, with the severity still unknown. Watson has been an X-factor for an offense that already lost its best player earlier in the year in Tucker Kraft. His speed stretches defenses vertically and unlocks the rest of the passing game. Tom, meanwhile, is arguably their best offensive lineman.
But Parsons is the loss that breaks everything. He’s been on the field for 662 snaps this season, off for 177 — and the defensive splits are staggering. With Parsons on the field, the Packers rank 11th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate. Without him, they fall to 26th in both metrics. Context matters, but the conclusion is simple: he’s by far their most important defender and fundamentally alters how offenses have to play them.
Green Bay was already a middling run defense. Without Parsons, they’re now staring at the possibility of being bottom-12 against the pass as well. For a team with January ambitions, this might be the moment the season quietly ends.
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The Jaguars Are Getting Hot
Yes, the level of competition matters. Jacksonville’s last four games came against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets — not exactly an all-star lineup of defenses. But even accounting for that, the shift in how the Jaguars are playing offense since the bye is too dramatic to ignore. And it’s showing up cleanly in the numbers.
Before the bye, this passing offense was conservative, inaccurate, and inefficient. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t pushing the ball downfield, and when he did, the results weren’t there. The Jaguars’ pre-bye splits tell the story:
an aDOT of 8.14, a brutal –5.6% CPOE, just 0.009 EPA/play, and a 43.5% success rate. That’s a passing game stuck in neutral.
Post-bye, it’s a completely different operation. Lawrence is attacking vertically again and doing so with control. The aDOT has jumped to 9.33, CPOE has normalized to –0.5%, efficiency has spiked to 0.139 EPA/play, and the success rate has climbed to 51.6%, which ranks 4th in the league over that stretch. That’s not just improvement — that’s a different tier of offense.
Personnel has helped. The addition of Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange returning from IR have given Lawrence more answers, but the biggest change is confidence. Lawrence is trusting what he sees, throwing the ball downfield, and no longer playing scared of mistakes. The blowout of the 10–4 Chargers (35–6) backs it up, and even the Colts game looks stronger in hindsight after seeing what Lou Anarumo just did to Seattle.
You can discount some of the opponents, but you can’t discount this kind of profile shift. The Jaguars aren’t just winning — they’re winning with a passing offense that finally looks functional, aggressive, and dangerous heading into December.
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The Seahawks’ Offense Is Stumbling
The Seahawks have a problem: they cannot run the ball, and the passing game isn’t bailing them out the way it did earlier in the season. Since Week 10, Seattle’s offense ranks 18th in EPA/play despite sitting 6th in success rate. The efficiency is there on a snap-to-snap basis, but the explosives are gone.
Sam Darnold’s aDOT has dropped from 9.06 in Weeks 1–9 to 7.5, a clear signal that the downfield passing game has cooled. That was supposed to be Seattle’s elevator pitch — explosive throws through the air, even without a dominant run game. Without those chunk plays, the lack of a rushing floor becomes a real issue for a playoff run.
The trade for Rashid Shaheed hasn’t moved the needle yet. Thirteen catches for 178 yards isn’t nothing, but it’s also not stretching defenses the way Seattle hoped. Right now, the offense feels like it’s shrinking, not expanding — and that’s dangerous in December.
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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 16
Rob:
New England ML +130 vs. Baltimore
Clive:
Nothing
Both:
LA Rams/Seattle Under 45.5
Buffalo/Cleveland Under 43.5
Jacksonville/Denver Over 44.5
To watch their game by game analysis of Week 16 Click Here:
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 16
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona - RB Bam Knight (Left Game), WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Xavier Weaver (Injured Inactive), OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal) LB Cody Simon (Left Game), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Thompson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - WR Drake London (Injured Inactive), CB Mike Hughes (Left Game)
Baltimore - WR Rashod Bateman (Injured Inactive), LB Teddye Buchanan (Season likely over), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Left Game)
Buffalo - LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Benford (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - QB Caleb Williams (Banged Up), QB Tyson Bagent (Injured Inactive), WR Rome Odunze (Re-aggravated in Warm-ups), WR Luther Burden III (Left Game)
Cincinnati - WR Tee Higgins (Injured Inactive), TE Noah Fant (Left Game), OT Amarius Mims (Left Game), DT Kris Jenkins (Left Game), EDGE Shemar Stewart (Working back from I.R.)
Cleveland - RB Dylan Sampson (Injured Inactive), TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), OG Wyatt Teller (Injured Inactive), OG Zak Zinter (Injured Inactive), OG Teven Jenkins (Left Game), DT Adin Huntington (Injured Inactive), CB Denzel Ward (Injured Inactive), QB Deshaun Watson (Working back from I.R.)
Dallas - OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), OT Nate Thomas (Left Game), FB Hunter Luepke (Left Game), DT Quinnen Williams
(Left Game), CB Trevon Diggs (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - RB RJ Harvey (Left Game), WR Pat Bryant (Injured Inactive), WR Marvin Mims (Banged Up), S Brandon Jones (Left Game), LB Justin Strnad (Left Game), OG Ben Powers (Working back from I.R.)
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), S Thomas Harper (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), OG Christian Mahogany (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - WR Christian Watson (Left Game), WR Jayden Reed (Left Game), OT Zach Tom (Left Game), EDGE Micah Parsons (Likely Torn ACL), S Evan Williams (Left Game), RB MarShawn Lloyd (Working back from I.R.)
Houston - RB Woody Marks (Left Game), RB Nick Chubb (Injured Inactive), CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Left Game)
Indianapolis - OT Bernhard Raimann (Left Game), CB Sauce Gardner (Injured Inactive), DT DeForest Buckner (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Left Game), OT Walker Little (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - QB Patrick Mahomes (Season Over), WR Hollywood Brown (Inactive/Personal), OT Jawaan Taylor (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Left Game), OG Trey Smith (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Tyler Lockett (Left Game), IOL Jordan Meredith (Injured Inactive), OT Kolton Miller (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston (Injured Inactive), WR Derius Davis (Injured Inactive), OT Trey Pipkins (Injured Inactive), S R.J. Mickens (Left Game)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Left Game)
Miami - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Minnesota - OT Christian Darrisaw (Injured Inactive), OT Brian O'Neill (Left Game), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Left Game), DT Javon Hargrave (Left Game), CB Isaiah Rodgers (Left Game)
New England - Nothing of note
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), RB Devin Neal (Left Game), WR Devaughn Vele (Left Game), OG Cesar Ruiz (Left Game), S Justin Reid (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Art Green (Working back from I.R)
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), LB Francisco Mauigoa (Injured Inactive), CB Isaiah Oliver (Left Game), S Tony Adams (Left Game)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Banged Up), OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - TBD (Playing Tonight)
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Banged Up), EDGE Sam Okuayinonu (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Elliott (Hurt in Warm-ups), LB Tatum Bethune (Injured Inactive), LB Nick Martin (Injured Inactive), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - Nothing of note
Tampa Bay - TE Cade Otton (Injured Inactive), LB SirVocea Dennis (Injured Inactive), CB Zyon McCollum (Left Game), S Tykee Smith (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - WR Van Jefferson (Left Game), OT Dan Moore Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Zeitler (Left Game), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Injured Inactive), S Xavier Woods (Left Game), S Kevin Winston Jr. (Left Game), S Mike Brown (Left Game)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Noah Brown (Left Game), OT Laremy Tunsil (Banged Up), CB Jonathan Jones (Injured Inactive)
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