Suuma's Takeaways from Week 16
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
Houston, Do We Have a Problem?
Houston is rolling in the standings. Win streaks of 7–0, 8–1, and 10–2, back-to-back wins, and they’re essentially locked into the playoffs. There’s still a narrow path to the division if Jacksonville slips, but the more important question is how the Texans are playing heading into January.
The entire playoff thesis was simple: a conference-best defense paired with an offense that would get healthier and find rhythm at the right time. Over the past two weeks, that premise has taken a hit.
Houston faced a patchwork Cardinals offensive line with no run game, then a patchwork Raiders line with no run game — and both moved the ball. Arizona posted a 60% rushing success rate and hit several explosives through the air. Against Las Vegas, the Texans jumped out early thanks to a pick-six and still had to sweat as 14-point favorites. The Raiders ran poorly (30% rushing success) but threw the ball efficiently: 48% passing success rate and 0.09 EPA per dropback, even with the pick-six — an eight-EPA swing. Remove that interception, and Geno Smith averaged 0.4 EPA/play on his other dropbacks.
Meanwhile, the Texans offense offered very little. The run game was abysmal, and they needed late-down conversions through the air just to stay functional. These last two weeks are concerning for a team that will likely need its defense to carry an average offense through hostile road playoff environments.
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The Bears Are a Weird Case
Chicago has clinched a playoff spot and sits in prime position to win the NFC North — and yet every win feels like it comes from the football gods flipping a coin in their favor.
The Bears needed an absurd amount of fortune to beat Las Vegas, Washington, Cincinnati, the Giants, Minnesota, and now Green Bay. Against the Packers alone: a Josh Jacobs goal-line fumble, Green Bay scoring just six points on four trips inside the 10, a facemask on 3rd-and-20, and an onside kick recovery. Miraculous doesn’t even begin to cover it.
Trying to project this team forward is difficult. The run game is legitimately excellent, and the play caller deserves real credit - obviously. Caleb Williams delivers a handful of highlight throws every game. But the passing offense is not consistently good enough, the receivers keep dropping critical passes, and the defense feels massively overrated — living almost entirely off turnovers.
So what does it all mean? Honestly, it’s hard to say. The Bears keep winning, but it’s impossible to tell how much of this is substance and how much is sheer variance.
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The Chargers Would Be AFC Favorites With Two Healthy Tackles
Parity defines the AFC playoff picture. It’s hard to remember a season where the entire field felt so tightly packed from top to bottom.
In an alternate reality, the Chargers might be the AFC favorite if they had both starting tackles — Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt — healthy. Instead, the offensive line has been a disaster, and things somehow got worse when Jamaree Salyer went down early against Dallas.
And yet, the Chargers are 11–4 and still alive in the division race. That’s because their quarterback is a cyborg, their defense is solid, and their head coach raises the floor every single week. In a crowded AFC bracket where margins are thin, the Chargers might quietly be one of the most underpriced teams going forward.
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The Giants Are the Walking Dead
It’s ugly in New York, and the illusion has completely worn off. Jaxson Dart might have fooled us with his prime-time performance against the Eagles — and with the swagger, and the optics next to Cam Skattebo — but the production hasn’t followed.
Since the Chicago game, the Giants haven’t moved the ball efficiently at all with Dart under center. He’s been wildly inaccurate, and the coaching staff has quietly stopped calling designed runs for him. Against Minnesota, Dart had zero net passing yards at halftime and finished 7-of-13 for 13 net passing yards. That’s not a typo.
The team looks lifeless. Structurally dead. Don’t be surprised if Ashton Jeanty manifests his draft status next week against this Giants team in what might as well be the “first overall pick bowl” in Las Vegas. The Raiders looked very much alive at Houston.
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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 17
Rob:
Las Vegas ML (+108) vs. NY Giants
Clive:
Nothing
Both:
Denver -11.5 (-115) vs. Kansas City
Houston/LA Chargers Under 40.5
Cincinnati -6.5 (-115) vs. Arizona
Cleveland +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
New Orleans/Tennessee Over 38.5
To watch their game by game analysis of Week 17 Click Here:
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 17
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona - OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal), C Hjalte Froholdt (Left Game), EDGE Josh Sweat (Left Game), DT Walter Nolen III (Season likely Over), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), CB Garrett Williams (Left Game), S Jalen Thompson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - CB Mike Hughes (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Left Game), OG Andrew Vorhees (Left Game), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - DT Jordan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Shaq Thompson (Left Game), K Matt Prater (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OT Ikem Ekwonu (Injured Inactive), DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive), LB Trevin Wallace (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), WR Luther Burden III (Injured Inactive), CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Left Game)
Cincinnati - TE Noah Fant (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), CB DJ Turner (Illness left game)
Cleveland - RB Quinshon Judkins (Season Over), RB Dylan Sampson (Injured Inactive), TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), OG Wyatt Teller (Injured Inactive), DT Mike Hall Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Denzel Ward (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - WR Ryan Flournoy (Left Game), OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), DT Quinnen Williams (Injured Inactive), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Left Game), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive), S Donovan Wilson (Left Game)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Left Game), LB Justin Strnad (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - OG Trystan Colon (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), C Graham Glasgow (Injured Inactive), CB/S Avonte Maddox (Left Game), OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Left Game), QB Malik Willis (Banged Up), WR Romeo Doubs (Left Game), TE John FitzPatrick (Season Over), OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), S Evan Williams (Injured Inactive)
Houston - RB Woody Marks (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Brown (Left Game), OT Aireontae Ersery (Left Game), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Injured Inactive), OG Patrick Mekari (Left Game), CB Greg Newsome (Left Game)
Kansas City - QB Gardner Minshew (Season Over), WR Rashee Rice (Injured Inactive), WR Tyquan Thornton (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Nnadi (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - OG Caleb Rogers (Left Game), OT Kolton Miller (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - RB Kimani Vidal (Left Game), WR Derius Davis (Injured Inactive), OT Trey Pipkins (Injured Inactive), OT Jamaree Salyer (Left Game), EDGE Bud Dupree (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Left Game), S R.J. Mickens (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Left Game/Weeks)
Miami - S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Left Game), RB Jordan Mason (Left Game), C Ryan Kelly (Left Game), DT Javon Hargrave (Injured Inactive)
New England - RB TreVeyon Henderson (Left Game), WR Kayshon Boutte (Left Game), WR DeMario Douglas (Left Game), OT Thayer Munford Jr. (Left Game), NT Khyiris Tonga (Left Game), DT Joshua Farmer (Left Game), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), OG Cesar Ruiz (Injured Inactive), OL Asim Richards (Injured Inactive), DT Bryan Bresee (Left Game)
New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Left Game), C John Michael Schmitz (Left Game), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), DT Jay Tufele (Left Game), LB Francisco Mauigoa (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - WR D.K. Metcalf (Possible Suspension), WR Calvin Austin (Left Game), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), EDGE T.J. Watt (Injured Inactive), EDGE Nick Herbig (Injured Inactive), CB James Pierre (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Left Game)
San Francisco - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Seattle - OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), EDGE Derick Hall (Suspended 1 Game), CB Riq Woolen (Left Game), S Coby Bryant (Left game/Weeks)
Tampa Bay - EDGE Anthony Nelson (Left Game)
Tennessee - LB Cedric Gray (Injured Inactive), CB Marcus Harris (Left Game), EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Left Game), WR Jaylin Lane (Left Game/Likely out) OT Laremy Tunsil (Injured Inactive), OT Brandon Coleman (Left Game), OG Sam Cosmi (Left Game), DT Jer'Zhan Newton (Left Game)
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